An alternate English medieval royal succession?

[Broadwoodwidger]

@Ivan Lupo I just wondered whether Paris wouldn't just seize the Vexin back immediately as soon as Marguerite dies or is divorced...

Anyway, I've been doing some digging on the Marcher families, and the best candidate I've found so far is Mabel Fitzwilliam of Gloucester, Isabella's older sister. Nobody else fits anywhere near so well- either too old or too young or married to other important nobles.

 

[Ivan Lupo]

@Ivan Lupo I just wondered whether Paris wouldn't just seize the Vexin back immediately as soon as Marguerite dies or is divorced...

Anyway, I've been doing some digging on the Marcher families, and the best candidate I've found so far is Mabel Fitzwilliam of Gloucester, Isabella's older sister. Nobody else fits anywhere near so well- either too old or too young or married to other important nobles.

Louis can try and seize the dowry back, but that's easier said than done. The whole reason he had to give the Vexin away as part of Margaret's dowry is because Henry was stronger than he was and thus had leverage over Louis. There's no guarantee at this point that Philip Augustus would eventually become who he became and take back much of the Angevins' French possessions. Previous French invasions of Normandy came through the Vexin

 

[Broadwoodwidger]

Louis can try and seize the dowry back, but that's easier said than done. The whole reason he had to give the Vexin away as part of Margaret's dowry is because Henry was stronger than he was and thus had leverage over Louis. There's no guarantee at this point that Philip Augustus would eventually become who he became and take back much of the Angevins' French possessions. Previous French invasions of Normandy came through the Vexin

Right, so here's what I see happening. Marguerite dies in childbirth: Henry returns to England and marries Mabel Fitzwilliam, possibly without his father's knowledge or approval.

Meanwhile, in 1168, Richard de Clare jumps the gun, buggers off to Ireland, marries Aoife in haste, only to get killed in some Hibernian skirmish. Aoife effectively becomes dowager Countess of Pembroke in her own right - is this credible? Or will she face competition or opposition from Richard's cousins and in-laws? Richard has no brother to inherit, and no issue from Aoife.

Instead, after the skirmish in which Guy de Lusignan attempts to kidnap Eleanor of Aquitaine (in which ITTL Patrick of Salisbury survives), Eleanor arranges for Marshal to wed Aoife, who OTL was his mother-in-law despite them being the same age...

Then William III (Henry III's son) weds Isabel Marshal, daughter of William and Aoife...

Must go now, dinner calls, will return to this idea later.

@Marquis I'd be grateful for your thoughts, as ever.

 

[kasumigenx]

Ida of Boulogne is a possible bride for Henry the Young King, it solves the succession issue with Stephen's kin or Alix who was Richard's betrothed is also possible while Richard marries Berengaria who is beneficial to his rule in Aquitaine.

 

[material_boy]

Ida of Boulogne is a possible bride for Henry the Young King, it solves the succession issue with Stephen's kin or Alix who was Richard's betrothed is also possible while Richard marries Berengaria who is beneficial to his rule in Aquitaine.

I like this only because I like tying off the loose end of Stephen's usurpation with marriage, but at the time this was non-issue. The Treaty of Westminster made Henry the adopted son and legal heir of Stephen. The church at the time may even disallow this marriage because Henry TYK and would be too closely related by adoption.

 

[Broadwoodwidger]

I like this only because I like tying off the loose end of Stephen's usurpation with marriage, but at the time this was non-issue. The Treaty of Westminster made Henry the adopted son and legal heir of Stephen. The church at the time may even disallow this marriage because Henry TYK and would be too closely related by adoption.

The question is, given the self-evident advantages of seizing the county of Boulogne as well as the Vexin, making it impossible for the French to access any part of their Channel/Atlantic coast, would either Henry II or Henry TYK allow that to get in the way?

There is, of course, Geoffrey of Brittany to contend with. He is already committed to Duchess Constance, of course, but he was very close to the Capets and mostly acted in open or covert rebellion against his father. It suited him that Henry TYK was also in rebellion against Henry II, but they also fought against Richard, and the moment Henry TYK becomes King Henry III of a vastly expanded empire with its eyes on the prize of Paris, Geoffrey is going to turn against his older brother. Now, the man undoubtedly had capability, I don’t want to simply squander his talents, but I can only foresee trouble where he is concerned...

 

[material_boy]

would either Henry II or Henry TYK allow that to get in the way?

If it's a church issue, it's a church issue, and Henry II doesn't have the best relationship with the pope post-Beckett ...

King Henry III of a vastly expanded empire with its eyes on the prize of Paris,

Why would Henry TYK care about Paris? It's not Paris as we think of it. The Capetians only just started pouring money into it around this time.

 

[Elfwine]

I suppose there's the idea of claiming the crown of France as opposed to just the city of Paris by virtue of "because the Plantagents control more of France than the Capets", but that sounds like a right mess when Henry doesn't even have a flimsy claim to be King of France (or to just absorb France into his "empire").

Also, another not so minor note in the context of the politics of the time: Henry II only controls any of the Atlantic coast and channel coast as a vassal of the French king. "The French" aren't blocked off with or without Boulogne in Plantagent hands, so making an unnecessary church issue to seize Boulogne sounds like a recipe for more political trouble and little to show for it.

 

[Broadwoodwidger]

@material_boy @Elfwine he who takes Paris takes the French crown, surely? The Capets would be pushed out. At best, they would control a small rump state in the southern half of France, under attack from the Angevins in the North and West. Burgundy was none too friendly either, Hugh III would gladly give the Capets a good kicking. I'm not so familiar with who controlled the Mediterranean coast at this time - mostly the Genoese, right? Provence was largely independent too. With Paris in Plantagenet hands, I don’t think there will be much France left for the Capets.

 

[Elfwine]

@material_boy @Elfwine he who takes Paris takes the French crown, surely? The Capets would be pushed out. At best, they would control a small rump state in the southern half of France, under attack from the Angevins in the North and West. Burgundy was none too friendly either, Hugh III would gladly give the Capets a good kicking. I'm not so familiar with who controlled the Mediterranean coast at this time - mostly the Genoese, right? Provence was largely independent too. With Paris in Plantagenet hands, I don’t think there will be much France left for the Capets.

Taking Paris doesn't mean Henry has the French crown, except possibly as in he might be holding the literal object if he captures it.

Hugh III might be happy to quarrel with the Capets as far as being a less-than-docile vassal, but that's rather different than backing a usurper with no right to be king taking the crown. And it needs to be remembered that if feudal oaths can be discarded at whim, well, that sets a very bad precedent for Henry's vassals, even before anything like the Church (rather supportive of the Capets, if I'm remembering my reading right) having a response to this.

Plus, do you see Richard (who is a vassal of Philip's as Duke of Aquitaine) or Geoffrey accepting that their older brother thinks he can just claim any territory he wants - such as theirs - if he feels like it? If you want to avoid trouble with Henry's brothers, I think this is the wrong direction.

Here's a map I found for 1180 - there may be a better one, but as far as I know this is essentially accurate:

Map of France at the accession of Philip II, aka Philip Augustus,1180. From France, Mediaeval and Modern A History, published 1918 Stock Photo - Alamy

Download this stock image: Map of France at the accession of Philip II, aka Philip Augustus,1180. From France, Mediaeval and Modern A History, published 1918. - JAHN9T from Alamy's library of millions of high resolution stock photos, illustrations and vectors.

www.alamy.com

Provence is not yet part of France, but the Counts of Toulouse don't exactly love the Plantagenets.

 

[material_boy]

@material_boy @Elfwine he who takes Paris takes the French crown, surely? The Capets would be pushed out. At best, they would control a small rump state in the southern half of France, under attack from the Angevins in the North and West. Burgundy was none too friendly either, Hugh III would gladly give the Capets a good kicking. I'm not so familiar with who controlled the Mediterranean coast at this time - mostly the Genoese, right? Provence was largely independent too. With Paris in Plantagenet hands, I don’t think there will be much France left for the Capets.

It feels like there's a lot of assumptions here that only make sense with the benefit of hindsight. There's nothing to suggest either Henry II or Henry TYK wanted to be king of France. Indeed, Henry II dropped his campaign in the south (and effectively dropped Eleanor's claim to Toulouse with it) when Louis showed up. Henry had powerful vassals that had an interest in rebellion (Strongbow, Scotland, Brittany ...), major French lords like the Blois had an interest in keeping the Capetians on the throne, and the Burgundians have no real interest in seeing a more powerful figure take the throne. All of this is to say nothing of Henry's dodgy relationship with the church, whose support he'd need to legitimize himself, or the fact that Henry TYK is likely a far less competent figure than his superstar father and had multiple powerful brothers to contend with.

 

[Broadwoodwidger]

@material_boy @Elfwine if one could persuade the Church to approve either way, would @kasumigenx 's suggestion of HYK marrying Ida be a better one than mine of him marrying Mabel of Gloucester? Or would keeping Marguerite and Prince William alive and well be preferable to either? If Philip's offspring all die young (the twins Philip Jr & Robert died just after birth, which also killed their mother, King Louis barely outlived his father, Philip Jr the second only lasted 33 years, and Marie just about made 40), then might William have a claim to the French throne through his mother? Philip obviously has no brothers, only five sisters...

 

[Elfwine]

I'm not sure if HYK marrying Ida is at all a good idea (as in, I don't know) , but Margaret and William surviving sounds better than either to me.

It's not an absolutely undeniable claim, but it's a fair shot at things - though keep in mind the descendants of Louis VII's younger brothers Robert (Count of Dreux) and Peter (Lord of Courtenay) as far as who might dispute it as far as inheritance if that happens to Philip II's sons and Louis VIII's sons (if he even lives long enough to have any, instead of dying younger than OTL).

 

[Ivan Lupo]

For as high esteem as the royal family had for William Marshal by 1170, he was still just an upcoming knight and younger son of a minor lord, nor was he actually William Marshal yet. The title of King's Marshal actually went to William's older brother John in 1165, who held the title until his own death in 1194, which is finally when William inherited the title. Even at this time, he has little to no juice to marry someone as highborn as Aoife of Leinster at the time, who was already promised to Richard Strongbow for helping her father reclaim his throne. William on the other hand was probably gallivanting around France with Henry the Young King. If there's such little record of William's sister Sybylla, chances are good that she either died young and unmarried, or was probably made a nun. Even if William wielded a level of influence over Henry, the best he could get for his sister would probably be an assignment as a lady in waiting for Queen Eleanor or Henry's kid sister Joan (Matilda and Eleanor would have already been married and overseas in Saxony and Castile respectively).

Furthermore, Henry was already married when he was 5, not just betrothed. He is in no position to set aside his wife for anybody, especially with the level of control and authority Henry II wielded over his family at about this time. Even if Margaret dies young here before their marriage could be consummated officially, if Henry II and Louis VII were not actively feuding with each other, the marriage arrangement would be revised so that the younger Henry marries Margaret's sister Alyx instead. Otherwise, Henry is arranging another marriage that would suit his political needs, not the whims of his 15 to 16 year old son.

I'm sorry man, but there are too many holes in this scenario to make it plausible.

 

[Broadwoodwidger]

For as high esteem as the royal family had for William Marshal by 1170, he was still just an upcoming knight and younger son of a minor lord, nor was he actually William Marshal yet. The title of King's Marshal actually went to William's older brother John in 1165, who held the title until his own death in 1194, which is finally when William inherited the title. Even at this time, he has little to no juice to marry someone as highborn as Aoife of Leinster at the time, who was already promised to Richard Strongbow for helping her father reclaim his throne. William on the other hand was probably gallivanting around France with Henry the Young King. If there's such little record of William's sister Sybylla, chances are good that she either died young and unmarried, or was probably made a nun. Even if William wielded a level of influence over Henry, the best he could get for his sister would probably be an assignment as a lady in waiting for Queen Eleanor or Henry's kid sister Joan (Matilda and Eleanor would have already been married and overseas in Saxony and Castile respectively).

Furthermore, Henry was already married when he was 5, not just betrothed. He is in no position to set aside his wife for anybody, especially with the level of control and authority Henry II wielded over his family at about this time. Even if Margaret dies young here before their marriage could be consummated officially, if Henry II and Louis VII were not actively feuding with each other, the marriage arrangement would be revised so that the younger Henry marries Margaret's sister Alyx instead. Otherwise, Henry is arranging another marriage that would suit his political needs, not the whims of his 15 to 16 year old son.

I'm sorry man, but there are too many holes in this scenario to make it plausible.

As I've said, my idea is that Richard de Clare gets killed off in a skirmish in Ireland, while Marshal saves not only Eleanor but also Patrick Salisbury and thus gets recommended by Eleanor for Aoife. Wasn't Alyx already betrothed to Richard? As far as I am aware, Henry TYK wasn't actually wedded to Marguerite, there had been a betrothal ceremony but they were just 5-year-old children then, and AIUI would have had to marry formally as adults prior to their dual coronation in 1172. There is certainly precious little evidence of them having much to do with each other, aside from that one stillborn son.

Since discussing Marshal's sister, we have moved on to two more candidates, Mabel of Gloucester and Ida of Boulogne, and are discussing whether either of them could be an advantageous match. Bear in mind that Henry II's ambitions and his son's wishes often did not match up. Henry II might see Ida as a good bet, Henry TYK might have other ideas. The question also remains, does Henry TYK's son surviving give him a potential claim on the French crown should Louis predecease Philip Augustus or at least die without issue?

 

[Elfwine]

Henry the Young King going against his father's wishes here is going to be in a very bad way very quickly.

If Philip dies without male issue, or Louis does for that matter, this thread seems relevant:

Philip Augustus of France

WI: He had died on the Third Crusade and his son also dies in infancy. Would the French impose Salic Law? Who would his successor be?

www.alternatehistory.com

Going by primogeniture and not by any other standard (like Salic Law being brought up), the candidates with no male issue of Philip (and Louis's line dying out) are:

Marie's descendants (see the counts of Champagne)
Alix's descendants (see the counts of Blois)
Margaret's descendants.
etc.

 

[Simreeve]

As an aside, Marshal was 72 when he led the Battle of Lincoln Fair, did a hard day's fighting, including unblocking a bricked-up entrance into the city, and killing a cousin of his on the French side, then, after sunset, rode all the way to Northampton, eighty miles to the south, to meet the King's messenger and get news to London by bedtime. What the hell was that guy made of?! A 72-year-old would think twice about making that journey in a car today, especially after a hard day's work! As it was, Marshal died two years after that, seemingly of some kind of stomach/bowel condition, likely cancer, but clearly the man had phenomenal strength and stamina.

Some literary scholars think that he was also the original model/inspiration for the addition of Lancelot to the Arthurian stories.
At one point some jealous rivals claimed that he was in an adulterous relationship with Margaret: He offered to disprove this by facing them in Trial by Combat, but they turned this down -- even when he offered to fight all three of them at once -- and so had to admit their error.

 

[Henderson]

As far as I am aware, Henry TYK wasn't actually wedded to Marguerite, there had been a betrothal ceremony but they were just 5-year-old children then, and AIUI would have had to marry formally as adults prior to their dual coronation in 1172. There is certainly precious little evidence of them having much to do with each other, aside from that one stillborn son.

No, they were officially married in 1160, and they were even given special dispensation by Pope Alexander III. And while they didn't have any children until 1177, it was probably either Margaret's infertility, or them not consumating the marriage until she was old enough that she could have a kid without major risks.

 

[Broadwoodwidger]

Henry the Young King going against his father's wishes here is going to be in a very bad way very quickly.

If Philip dies without male issue, or Louis does for that matter, this thread seems relevant:

Philip Augustus of France

WI: He had died on the Third Crusade and his son also dies in infancy. Would the French impose Salic Law? Who would his successor be?

www.alternatehistory.com

Going by primogeniture and not by any other standard (like Salic Law being brought up), the candidates with no male issue of Philip (and Louis's line dying out) are:

Marie's descendants (see the counts of Champagne)
Alix's descendants (see the counts of Blois)
Margaret's descendants.
etc.

I mean, HTYK frequently DID go against his father's wishes, and had his brother Geoffrey's support in so doing.

So, under Salic law, the house of Dreux is in line before the Plantagenets, and without it, Champagne and Blois get there first. Either way, it's not going to work out, and any Plantagenet attempt to take the French crown is going to end up in a futile, bloody war, potentially lasting for decades... oh yes, where have we heard that one before?!

So, we have four options as regards HTYK's marriage.

1) Marguerite, who remains fertile.
2) Failing that, her sister Alys. However, at this point Rome is trying to push Henry II to marry her to Richard, to whom she is engaged. However, it seems the old git was likely bedding her himself and that a child may have resulted, and certainly neither Richard nor his mother (acting on John's behalf) wanted any marriage to her to go ahead.
3) Ida of Boulogne. Geopolitically advantageous, perhaps, assuming the church doesn't nix it.
4) Mabel Fitzwilliam of Gloucester. Gives Henry domestically influential in-laws and helps prevent the Barons' War.

In either of the latter two cases, there are two ways it could happen. One, Marguerite dies. Two, as per OTL, HTYK pursues and obtains an annulment on the grounds of her infertility following the failed attempt to produce an heir.

 

[Elfwine]

I mean, HTYK frequently DID go against his father's wishes, and had his brother Geoffrey's support in so doing.

That's not the same thing as it being a good idea, though. No one ever accused Henry the Young King of being overly prudent IRL, in his life or afterwards.

As far as Blois and Champagne getting there first and "futile, bloody war" - I don't think this is comparable to OTL's HYW even if Champagne and Blois have senior claims. Though as far as how that might go, that really depends on where things are as opposed to OTL - they will not be the same as OTL's situation in 1223 or 1226 by a long shot.

If I was writing this, I would stick to Henry's OTL marriage, have him marry someone born later for his second marriage (if there is one), and move from there - but I'm not you. I don't think any bride is going to make a substantial difference one way or another except as far as what that a son born in the 1170s will be in his late forties when Henry dies (at seventy-five), for example. It's not totally irrelevant, but whether or not there's a war with the barons or whether or not the king has a healthy son or three can go either way when you're starting at 1183 or earlier.