AHC Spring 1942 A very unwelcome visit

[Peabody-Martini]

March-April 1942 Two Imperial Japanese Navy Battlecruisers in one of the few times that ships of this type were used for their intended purpose steam across the North Pacific. Entering the San Francisco bay they shell the Alameda Naval Air Station before fleeing back into the Pacific. What impact would such a raid have on the American public? How would this impact the war? What would happen post war?

 

[Don Lardo]

March-April 1942 Two Imperial Japanese Navy Battlecruisers in one of the few times a that ships were used for their intended purpose steam across the North Pacific.

Their intended purpose was to steam to the US West Coast and conduct shore bombardment? First I've ever heard of that.

All that way alone? With no oilers? And which "battlecruisers"?

This is starting to look a little ASB...

Entering the San Francisco bay...

Now we've reached the level of pure ASB.

... they shell the Alameda Naval Air Station...

Past all the forts and patrols? And not the yards at Hunter's Point? Or Vallejo? If you're going into the Bay as far as Alameda, Vallejo isn't much further. It's only in another direction.

How about Long Beach or Puget too?

What impact would such a raid have on the American public?

Because it can't realistically happen, none.

In an ASB world, an angrier US public is that's even possible.

How would this impact the war?

A few US generals and admirals get canned. Many more Japanese get killed.

What would happen post war?

Seeing as it's an ASB world, anything at all.

Realistically, not much at all.

 

[miketr]

Yah the 16L50's in casement batteries turn the IJN BC's into scrap if they try a stunt like this. I would have to check but I suspect there would be more than that there.

Michael

 

[The Red]

I could see such a plan at going ahead at least by overconfident rengades, some of the Japanese were ludicrously overconfident (apparently there was a plan to invade Alask at some point) it would of course fail however. A nice propaganda victory for the US, the final nail in the coffin for the invasion scare and a crisis of command for the IJN. Who allowed this to go ahead? Why wasn't this stopped?

If it did succeed, American heads would roll. No long term effect on the war, it's not like the US could have been more violent towards Japan than they already were.

 

[CalBear]

Yah the 16L50's in casement batteries turn the IJN BC's into scrap if they try a stunt like this. I would have to check but I suspect there would be more than that there.

Michael

You also had the largest bomber base on the West Coast at Hamilton Field with three squadrons of B-18s and 3 of P-36 fighters in permanent residence, as well as being the transit point for every B-17 headed into the Pacific Theater. There was also Moffet Field that had 45 photo recon aircraft flying missions looking for something exactly like this.

This has to be one of the oddest WI I've seen here in a while.

 

[miccal99]

This only sounds FAINTLY feasible as a 1944-1945 desperation act by a dying Japan. A suicide mission, to be sure, and if they somehow get through the Bay defenses, a better target would be plague germs launched at San Francisco and Oakland itself.

 

[Peabody-Martini]

I know this is a very strange WI. The event described would be nearly impossible, so what.

I only thought of it because of it seems so unthinkable.

When something is regarded as such, things have a way happening that shouldn't.

That a raid of some kind on the west coast in order to draw assets away from the Central Pacific never happened is what surprises me. Considering the IJN and their tendency to go big during the early part of the war, I don't think that an attack on Eureka or Astoria would be big enough for them.

 

[Bobsalt]

It would end up looking something like this:

Patrol plans spot them a couple of hundred miles from the coast. U.S. divebombers and torpedo planes swarm over them like bees around a honeysuckle bush. U.S. morale gets a huge boost over the headlines in every U.S. newspaper telling about the sinking of two Japanese "battleships." The IJN officers who gave the OK for this fiasco are cashiered and commit seppuku in atonement. Japan ends up with two less ships to be sunk in San Bernadino Strait. Sometime in the 1990's Robert Ballard has a new wreck site to do a National Geographic special on.

 

[usertron2020]

You also had the largest bomber base on the West Coast at Hamilton Field with three squadrons of B-18s and 3 of P-36 fighters in permanent residence, as well as being the transit point for every B-17 headed into the Pacific Theater. There was also Moffet Field that had 45 photo recon aircraft flying missions looking for something exactly like this.

This has to be one of the oddest WI I've seen here in a while.

You can also throw in the rarely seen phenomenon of extraordinary air to sea interdiction. The destruction of Force Z is one example. This scenario of IJN light Battleships (they are not Battlecruisers anymore), I'm assuming the Haruna and Kongo, doing a suicide raid on San Francisco is another.

With extraordinary a/s interdict, you have strike aircraft attacking under circumstances where the presence of enemy airpower is not only nonexistent, but beyond any possibility whatsoever. It's like delivering the mail (except for that pesky AA, which won't last long). This means your bombers can fly off with no gunnery crews, no guns, and no ammunition, saving weight and cutting down on fuel expenditure (increasing range). This means hitting the enemy sooner, and more often (more sorties). Even ever more minimal fuel as the enemy continues to approach. All this to allow the absolute maximum bomb load the aircraft will bear. Nasty.

This is why the Prince of Wales and Repulse were dealt with so easily despite the obsolescence of the Japanese strike aircraft bombing them. The Prince of Wales was much tougher a vessel that the Kongo Class. They'd be easy meat.

 

[Peabody-Martini]

There is something that should be considered. This picture was taken within a few hundred yards from one of the 16" shore batteries. It can be this way at anytime of the day.

 

[Don Lardo]

There is something that should be considered.

Seeing as you already failed to consider the huge numbers of aircraft based or passing through the region, plus the maritime and aerial patrols ranging out hundreds if not thousands of miles from the region, pulling the Bay's famous fog out of your Hat of Excuses still doesn't make this idea any less laughable.

The IJN IS NOT going to throw away two of it's limited number of all-gun capital ships on what is basically a suicide mission to shoot up one of several US naval air stations on the West Coast. The IJN carefully husbanded the strength of it's gun line during the course of the war in an increasingly quixotic belief in a Decisive Battle. They are not going to risk part of that gun line unless the situation warrants it, such as occurred in the Solomons, and the minuscule chance to shoot up one airstrip out of dozens on the West Coast does not warrant the risk.

In an earlier post you wondered why the IJN didn't make surface raids on the US West Coast during the war. The reason they didn't do that was that they weren't stupid.

 

[Redcat]

March-April 1942? Is this supposed to be an IJN analogue to the Doolittle Raid?

The fog of San Francisco is famous, but it's not a year-round occurrence. I live in the Bay Area and March-April is absolutely clear and beautiful in San Francisco. Also, fog doesn't really penetrate past the SF peninsula, so once those ships break into the East Bay, all bets are off.

However, assuming you want to just handwave getting the ships to the bay, to answer your questions...the ships would never make it out of the bay afloat. Any damage inflicted would be quickly repaired and the military gains would be insignificant. Still, the raid would have a devastating impact on the American public. It would be yet another demonstration of Japanese might and American impotence. Heads would roll. If it happened in late March, they might even catch the Hornet at Alameda, prepping for the Doolittle Raid. That would kill the Doolittle Raid, which might butterfly away Midway. This would definitely prolong the war, but not change the outcome. Post-war, no change.

This actually turned into a pretty fun thought exercise, but its utterly unrealistic because the scenario is too ASB.