Aftermath of a 1961/1962 Nuclear war, specifically in Europe? (The West launches the first strike)

[Deleted member 97083]

Envision the following, terribly dystopian scenario:

• In 1961 or 1962, the United States and NATO launch a nuclear first strike against the Soviet Union. This could be part of an ATL Cuban Missile Crisis where Operation Northwoods happened, or a larger Bay of Pigs, or it could just be an out-of-the-blue strike to eliminate Soviet nuclear stockpiles by surprise. Whatever happens, the United States strikes first and the Soviets are caught off guard.
• The Soviet Union and Cuba are fully targeted and almost completely annihilated after a vast majority of the United States nuclear stockpile is released. Most major cities in the two countries are wiped out.
• Mobilization and some fighting occurs in Cuba and Germany, but is made largely irrelevant by the nuclear devastation.
• The Soviets are destroyed fast enough that they aren't able to get in many, if any, hits on the continental United States. The contiguous 48 may be untouched or there may be 1-3 small Soviet strikes in areas like southern Florida, another place in the Deep South, or the Pacific Northwest. By and large, however, a largely intact USA stands and becomes the despised terror of the world after completely annihilating its foe.
• Despite the destruction of the Soviet Union and their failure to land significant hits on the US itself, they do manage to significantly hit most NATO members in Europe. At the very least, each capital is destroyed.
• Enough nuclear weapons were detonated to cause a nuclear winter, and crop failures across the northern half of Europe for up to a decade. Specifically, key farming regions in the northern third of the United States, and the half of Europe north of the Alps, see a 12-20 degree (Celsius) decline in average temperature for 2 full growing seasons. The temperature begins to rise on the 3rd year, but normal climatic conditions do not restore until almost ten years after the catastrophe.
• Normal, or lower-than-average, wind speed is the case across Europe, so the fallout does not spread much farther than the areas that are directly nuked.
• Use of biological and chemical weapons is minimal, largely because the Soviet Union was caught off guard.

Focusing mostly on Europe, what happens now? Does civilization even survive in northern Europe? Southern Europe for that matter? What countries will survive, which will fall to civil war, which will be completely annihilated?

1. How far does standard of living in Europe decline?
2. Do mass migrations occur from northern Europe to southern Europe? From southern Europe to the Mediterranean? From the Soviet Union to Asia?
3. Do countries start conquering agricultural land from their neighbors? Even betraying their allies? Or only continuing the fight between west and east?
4. Would the United States be able to provide food aid to Europe, or would they be too busy trying to survive the nuclear winter themselves?
5. Would neutral countries be targeted? Regardless of whether they are targeted, would they even survive the nuclear winter?
6. Does the Soviet government break into several pieces, or cease to exist altogether?
7. Do military dictatorships form across most of Europe? Theocracies? Other authoritarian governments?
8. Would any countries in Europe remain a great power? Which countries? (Maybe Turkey?)

Explain your answers, too, if possible. If you have other predictions as to what would happen, post them as well.

 

[Lalli]

1. How far does standard of living in Europe decline?

Standards of living varies greatly. Some countries might be on quiet good shape and others have very bad situation. Many cities would be destroyed and radiation and nuclear winter cause several problems.

2. Do mass migrations occur from northern Europe to southern Europe? From southern Europe to the Mediterranean? From the Soviet Union to Asia?

There is much mass immigration speciality from Eastern and Central Europe to Northern, Western and Southern Europe. Altough there is too several smaller immigration between different countries.

3. Do countries start conquering agricultural land from their neighbors? Even betraying their allies? Or only continuing the fight between west and east?

No. Why they would? There might be still fighting between forces of NATO and WP but not conquests. Them have surely enough doing with recovering.

4. Would the United States be able to provide food aid to Europe, or would they be too busy trying to survive the nuclear winter themselves?

Probably. USA wouldn't suffer very badly from WW3 on early 1960's. It hardly is cabable to create Marshall plan 2.0. but it can give some food supply, at least for other NATO nations.

5. Would neutral countries be targeted? Regardless of whether they are targeted, would they even survive the nuclear winter?

Some neutral countries would be targeted, probably at least Finland and Austria. They would suffer greatly but they survive altough recovering would last some decades.

6. Does the Soviet government break into several pieces, or cease to exist altogether?

USSR surely would cease from existence. But another thing is what happen next. Probably Russia would be collected by several war lord nations and other soviet republics try seek independence.

7. Do military dictatorships form across most of Europe? Theocracies? Other authoritarian governments?

Some nations might become some kind of authotarian nations.

8. Would any countries in Europe remain a great power? Which countries?

Probably France and United Kingdom might remain great power but these would be much weaker than before the war. Russia would be something like OTL Russia on 1917 - 1920's or even worse. Some countries might become more important but hardly great powers.

 

[Deleted member 97083]

4. Would the United States be able to provide food aid to Europe, or would they be too busy trying to survive the nuclear winter themselves?

Probably. USA wouldn't suffer very badly from WW3 on early 1960's. It hardly is cabable to create Marshall plan 2.0. but it can give some food supply, at least for other NATO nations.

However, in a nuclear winter scenario the northern third of the USA, including the agriculturally important middle of the country, would see a 12-20 degree decline in average temperature for at least 2 years, as well as decreased sunlight from suspended dust in the air.

Could the southern US produce enough food to feed the most densely populated parts of the US, and still have enough to export to Europe? Considering that the southern US itself would see a less extreme, but still significant, agricultural decline; also, Canada would lose all their yields and would need support too.

I wonder if Latin American food exports would have been high enough at the time to significantly fill the demand from the US, Canada, or Europe.

There are also Australian and New Zealand food exports, though I'm not sure how much they exported at that time.

 

[Michel Van]

How far does standard of living in Europe decline?

That depend were your are and what resources they got, that goes from 1960s level down to 18th century level.

2. Do mass migrations occur from northern Europe to southern Europe? From southern Europe to the Mediterranean? From the Soviet Union to Asia?

Yes, everyone will try to get out there from this Hell, one fear of Soviets from east or another nuklear attack. So South France, Spain, Portugal, Italy face masses of refugees fron North Europe.
While a lot British try get to Irland.

3. Do countries start conquering agricultural land from their neighbors? Even betraying their allies? Or only continuing the fight between west and east?

That depends Who is in charge over Europe and it not only about agricultural land but also about resources like Oil and Coal who play also Important role for survival in Europe

4. Would the United States be able to provide food aid to Europe, or would they be too busy trying to survive the nuclear winter themselves?

That depends on situation and Who is in charge over USA, also play the strengt of the Nuclear Winter a role in Scenario!

5. Would neutral countries be targeted? Regardless of whether they are targeted, would they even survive the nuclear winter?

Unclear, the US SIOP-62 Target list is never published completely although the documents label Yugoslavia as East block state and exclude Hungary as target.
While some Soviet pamphlet labels the Vatican as Ideological enemy, again it's unclear if USSR would drop a Nuke on vatican city in case of War.

6. Does the Soviet government break into several pieces, or cease to exist altogether?

Since this a NATO strike first scenario, there will be not much left of USSR, China and East after SAC is finish with them, alone on Moscow they wanted to drop nuke in amount of 100 MT !
There will not much left to form a government, this story by Geon is very good example how life in Post War USSR look like
klick on links here #417 #425

Do military dictatorships form across most of Europe? Theocracies? Other authoritarian governments?

Yes, either authoritarian government or straight military dictatorships (Spain) or even a US controlled NATO government over remains of Europe to keep "law and Order" upright

8. Would any countries in Europe remain a great power? Which countries? (Maybe Turkey?)

No, France is lobotomized after Paris is nuked (NATO HQ), they loose there ENTIRE administration and economy logistic concentrated in Paris !
Britain, Belgium, Netherlands, Germany and east Europe are mostly a radioactive wastelands
South France, Spain, Portugal, Italy remain, but the question is can they Handel this refugee crisis or they gonna collapse ?
again rise authoritarian government or straight military dictatorships there goes here hand in hand,
on other hand it the remains of Europe get under US control and is govern as sort of US territory until situation is getting better.

Back Note
in 1961 and 1962 the USSR has not much ICBM in 61 only FOUR ICBM of R-7 type with 50 % chance to hit it's target: L.A. N.Y. Chicago Washington D.C.
and R-16 ICBM was during final test phase and not Operational in 1962.
So USA will suffer only 1-2 ICBM hits and loose some ports cites by Soviet Sub nuclear torpedoes and SRBM.

 

[Deleted member 97083]

While a lot British try get to Irland.

I wonder if Ireland would become the main American "port" in post-apocalyptic Europe for supplying and trading with the surviving countries. Either that or Portugal, maybe?

That depends Who is in charge over Europe and it not only about agricultural land but also about resources like Oil and Coal who play also Important role for survival in Europe

Good point about coal. Didn't European countries import most of their oil by this time though?

That depends on situation and Who is in charge over USA, also play the strengt of the Nuclear Winter a role in Scenario!

Assuming none of the 4 Soviet ICBMs hit the capital, and JFK remains in power, how long would he remain in power?

Unclear, the US SIOP-62 Target list is never published completely although the documents label Yugoslavia as East block state and exclude Hungary as target.
While some Soviet pamphlet labels the Vatican as Ideological enemy, again it's unclear if USSR would drop a Nuke on vatican city in case of War.

Wouldn't the Soviets attack Rome anyway as the capital of Italy? So the Vatican isn't in good shape either way.

Since this a NATO strike first scenario, there will be not much left of USSR, China and East after SAC is finish with them, alone on Moscow they wanted to drop nuke in amount of 100 MT !
There will not much left to form a government, this story by Geon is very good example how life in Post War USSR look like
klick on links here #417 #425

Thanks for the links, I didn't realize a timeline about a similar scenario was ongoing.

Yes, either authoritarian government or straight military dictatorships (Spain) or even a US controlled NATO government over remains of Europe to keep "law and Order" upright

By US controlled NATO government, do you mean that NATO would end up effectively turning into a federation-like entity, controlled by the USA?

South France, Spain, Portugal, Italy remain, but the question is can they Handel this refugee crisis or they gonna collapse ?
again rise authoritarian government or straight military dictatorships there goes here hand in hand,

Being military dictatorships already, would Spain and Portugal go full fascist in backlash against millions of Northern European immigrants?

If the French remnant, Spain, Portugal, or Italy collapse, what will they break up into? State and province governments? Secessionist regions? Individual cities? Complete anarchy?

Back Note
in 1961 and 1962 the USSR has not much ICBM in 61 only FOUR ICBM of R-7 type with 50 % chance to hit it's target: L.A. N.Y. Chicago Washington D.C.
and R-16 ICBM was during final test phase and not Operational in 1962.
So USA will suffer only 1-2 ICBM hits and loose some ports cites by Soviet Sub nuclear torpedoes and SRBM.

Do you have sources with more information on what the US and USSR had available at that time?

 

[Michel Van]

I wonder if Ireland would become the main American "port" in post-apocalyptic Europe for supplying and trading with the surviving countries. Either that or Portugal, maybe?

Nope, they use all remaining operational US and NATO Air base in Europe.

Assuming none of the 4 Soviet ICBMs hit the capital, and JFK remains in power, how long would he remain in power?

he will goes into history book as...

By US controlled NATO government, do you mean that NATO would end up effectively turning into a federation-like entity, controlled by the USA?

No, I mean that USA take over the remaining of Europe and governed it in behalf of Survivors until situation is under control see why below under GLADIO.

Being military dictatorships already, would Spain and Portugal go full fascist in backlash against millions of Northern European immigrants?

It depend how fast millions refugees enter Spain and Portugal and how authorities can control the refugees masses, if not, public order collapse and other take over control, see below under GALDIO.

If the French remnant, Spain, Portugal, or Italy collapse, what will they break up into? State and province governments? Secessionist regions? Individual cities? Complete anarchy?

France was in 1960s Central Governed from Paris and i mean ALL aspect of Administration, Tax, Juristic, Archives, health insurance, banking, Economics all as concentrated in City of Paris, until 3 Soviet MRBM hit the NATO HQ's and Vaporized the City.
That reduce Administration level in remaining France to mayoralty in town halls.

Italy can collapse also like Spain or Portugal, but there is Wild Card in this game called GLADIO.
That was NATO organization for resistance in a Soviet occupied West Europe with vast secret network of sleeper agents with Communication and weapon depots
but GLADIO had one tiny problem: it's members are Neo-Nazis, Extrem Rights and Fascists,
That bunch of maniacs give a dam about democracy and dream of old glory of Third Reich

Seems that USA will spend long time to deal with that situation in Europe: collapsing Law and order, while maniacs try to install Fascism.

 

[CalBear]

As requested...

NATO striking would include the UK using its independent deterrent (France has tested weapons starting in 1960, but did not deploy the AN-11 until 1964). This also would require that the entire NATO leadership approved the offensive action. This seems fairly unlikely.

The Soviets, given their system limitations of the era (the sole ICBM, the 8K71 (NATO: SS-6) was around 50% reliable for satellite launches, when they had DAYS to prep the launcher) will be hard pressed to get any of their truly long range assets into play in this sort of a strike. Their medium range assets like the 8K51 (NATO: SS-3) and 8K63 (SS-4) are extremely vulnerable (the first hard site for the SS-4 wasn't activated until 1963) and would be primary targets for the RAF V bombers and USAF B-47s & B-58s. The SS-1, aka Scud, has a make range with a nuclear weapon of 150km. Soviet manned bombers are incredibly vulnerable to NATO interceptors. Soviets will likely manage to launch, at best, 250 weapons, mostly SS-1, before the launch sites are obliterated. Soviet missile reliability at the time totally sucked, figure 20-30 detonations beyond the BDR's borders, including around half a dozen in North America. West Germany, however, is going to get crunched, easy 100 detonations along with Vx warheads from the SS-1. Since you specify that the Western European capitals are all hit I can't say much about that. I would, however, note that since this is a NATO action all those leadership teams would be outside their capitals and in hardened facilities.

As has been mentioned "nuclear winter" has been fairly thoroughly debunked, so that isn't an issue. There may be a minor "nuclear autumn" effect (maybe 1-2C for a year or two) but that would be the max.

The Joker is the chance of a "wildfire" (i.e. unintended consequences). There is a low order possibility that one or more Soviet bio-weapon facilities could be breached but not sterilized (the Soviets didn't exactly advertise what they were doing so the U.S. wouldn't know what was being targeted) allowing all the weaponized nastiness out into the wild. Since pandemics don't follow borders that could get REALLY bad, especially if the contagion made it into the PRC.

Assuming the worst case pandemic doesn't happen... Germany effectively ceases to exist except as an enduring example of the dangers of nuclear weapons (the DDR is going to get rocked even worse then the BDR, NATO has a LOT more of an inventory). The USSR collapses into civil wars. France, Italy, and rest of the non-nuclear NATO states lay the blame for their destruction on NATO, especially the U.S. and UK. NATO implodes as a result. The U.S. (and very possibly the UK) is, within 10 years, a global pariah for having started the greatest global disaster in human history

 

[Deleted member 97083]

As has been mentioned "nuclear winter" has been fairly thoroughly debunked, so that isn't an issue. There may be a minor "nuclear autumn" effect (maybe 1-2C for a year or two) but that would be the max.

The accuracy of nuclear winter has been debated over the years, but it's not debunked. There is fairly recent work that predicts catastrophic decreases in temperature--nuclear winter--after a nuclear war. It just requires that the length of the nuclear exchange is short: 1-2 days, and centered mostly on cities. The average nuclear war scenario fits exactly those parameters.

Robock, Alan. Oman, Luke. Stenchikov, Georgiy L. "Nuclear winter revisited with a modern climate model and current nuclear arsenals: Still catastrophic consequences." Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 112. 6 July, 2007.
(Link)

Mills, Michael J. Toon, Owen B. Lee-Taylor, Julia. Robock, Alan. "Multidecadal global cooling and unprecedented ozone loss following a regional nuclear conflict". Earth's Future, Vol. 2. 1 April, 2014.
(Link)

 

[CalBear]

The accuracy of nuclear winter has been debated over the years, but it's not debunked. There is fairly recent work that predicts catastrophic decreases in temperature--nuclear winter--after a nuclear war. It just requires that the length of the nuclear exchange is short: 1-2 days, and centered mostly on cities. The average nuclear war scenario fits exactly those parameters.

Robock, Alan. Oman, Luke. Stenchikov, Georgiy L. "Nuclear winter revisited with a modern climate model and current nuclear arsenals: Still catastrophic consequences." Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 112. 6 July, 2007.
(Link)

Mills, Michael J. Toon, Owen B. Lee-Taylor, Julia. Robock, Alan. "Multidecadal global cooling and unprecedented ozone loss following a regional nuclear conflict". Earth's Future, Vol. 2. 1 April, 2014.
(Link)

While I am far from qualified to argue the specifics of the models a couple things stand out.

The 2007 study, in paragraph 18, presupposes that the area coverd by cities has increased since the 1980s studies, in this scenario the opposite is true; the cities are generally more compact, with less built areas. The 2007 model also presupposes (not unreasonably since it is looking at 2007 conditions) that North America, especially the CONUS, would suffer serious devastation with the accompanying firestorms across most major and medium sized cities. Again, this is entirely the opposite of the current scenario; rather than ~2,000mT the study uses the total delived payload to the U.S. would in all likelihood be under 10mT, perhaps below 5mT. The supposition is also that the damage will be largely against cities, this is, again, unlikely. Most available models agree that a considerable amount of both sides arsenal will be dedicated to "counter-force" strikes made in the hopes of disabling a large percentage of the enemies weapons. In the early 1960s most Soviet MRBM were located in rural areas of far eastern German and parts of Western Poland, along with the southern Ukraine and the Chinese border. This would also mitigate a considrable amount of the studies expected soot and particulate production.

The 2014 study is closer to the mark, but it also continues to emphasize the potential from destruction of massive sprawling megacities via firestorm, this time in SW Asia.

EDIT: Interestingly, the 2014 study discusses dire consequence due to a temperature drop of 1.5C. This would, in fact, simply reverse the 1C increase caused by Global warming. This does not, of course, recommend ANY above ground detonations, nor does it take into consideration the damage to the ozone layer and other impacts.

 

[Michel Van]

West Germany, however, is going to get crunched, easy 100 detonations along with Vx warheads from the SS-1.

"get crunched" That to nice Term for total nuclear annihilation next the SS-1 also Bombers or missile dropping Tactical nukes, nuclear artillery used by US and Soviet. nuclear mines, David Crocket nuclear gun.
the Frontier between East and West Germany will be a Radioactive Hellhole, next also radioaktive hotspots were former US and Soviet bases, Bundeswehr and Nationale Volksarme bases and Government bunkers were

Soviets will likely manage to launch, at best, 250 weapons, mostly SS-1, before the launch sites are obliterated. Soviet missile reliability at the time totally sucked, figure 20-30 detonations beyond the BDR's borders, including around half a dozen in North America.

also to include is use of Soviet Submarines who use there nuclear Torpedo either to retaliation on US fleet hunting them or firing on US harbor cities near by.

On Nuclear Winter
We had several discussion about, also in TL the Cuban Missile War.
I stick on this argument: If one day happens a nuclear war, then we can see if this theory is right...

 

[Deleted member 97083]

Italy can collapse also like Spain or Portugal, but there is Wild Card in this game called GLADIO.
That was NATO organization for resistance in a Soviet occupied West Europe with vast secret network of sleeper agents with Communication and weapon depots
but GLADIO had one tiny problem: it's members are Neo-Nazis, Extrem Rights and Fascists,
That bunch of maniacs give a dam about democracy and dream of old glory of Third Reich

Seems that USA will spend long time to deal with that situation in Europe: collapsing Law and order, while maniacs try to install Fascism.

If the GLADIO agents were on US payroll though, wouldn't they just support US and anti-communist interests?

Or if all of them were truly, full Nazis, and they went rogue against the US, then wouldn't they be more in favor of increasing German and Northern European resettlement in Italy (assuming nuclear winter causes such migration in the first place) and possibly attempting to break off their own secessionist state? That would put them at odds with native Italian far right factions, who would be trying to minimize Northern European immigration and push for militarism and centralization.

 

[Michel Van]

If the GLADIO agents were on US payroll though, wouldn't they just support US and anti-communist interests?

Or if all of them were truly, full Nazis, and they went rogue against the US, then wouldn't they be more in favor of increasing German and Northern European resettlement in Italy (assuming nuclear winter causes such migration in the first place) and possibly attempting to break off their own secessionist state? That would put them at odds with native Italian far right factions, who would be trying to minimize Northern European immigration and push for militarism and centralization.

That was not easy to define because GLADIO "stay-behind" networks, went slowly out of Control in different ways

The German "stay-behind" network was build up by CIA and former SS officer and High-rang NSDAP members, referred to by the CIA as an "unreconstructed Nazis".
the NEO-Nazi use the Network Weapon depots for Bomb attacks and murder attempt in 1980s Germany.

The Italy "stay-behind" network GLADIO was build up by Minister of Defence Paolo Taviani, recruiting Fascist and Far right extremist.
Again the Neo-Fascist use the Network Weapon depots for Bomb attacks and murder attempt in 1980s Italy.

The Belgium "stay-behind" army is some how involved in the Brabant massacres and the activities of far right group Westland New Post in 1980s

The Danish stay-behind army was code-named ABSALON, was hidden inside the military secret service Forsvarets Efterretningstjeneste, again it's members Far right extremist.

The French stay-behind army already took 1960s action as part of them split over the 1962 Evian peace accords, and became part of the Organisation armée secrète (OAS)
They made several attempt to murder President De Gaulle and murderous Bomb attacks.

The Greece "stay-behind" network was part of special forces, LOK (Lochoi Oreinōn Katadromōn) they play THE key rolle in Greece Military putsch of 1967.

The Netherlands network GLADIO depots were looted in 1980s by Dutch criminals either to be used for crimes or sell on illegal weapon market.

The Turkey had also "stay-behind" network labels as Kontrgerilla
In Turkey there is a popular belief that the Counter-Guerrilla are responsible for numerous unsolved acts of violence, murders and Terrorist attacks

Next Nato members, CIA build up "stay-behind" network in neutral states like Austrian (former Nazi), Sweden (Far right extremist, involved in murder of Olaf Palme ?)
seems Spain played in GLADIO network a central role, according some former members, Spain was a central Base for GADIO and had connection/support to South Americans Dictatorships, like Argentina.
NOTE Spain became official in 1982 member of NATO

With this overview what the "stay-behind" network GLADIO made a bloody mess in 1980s Terrorism
What can it do in case of Nuclear War ?
in Germany and Austria the Nazi would try reinstall the Third Reich, good luck in that Radioactive Wasteland
In Italy the Fascist will try to reinstall there former glory
but in face of Millions of Refugees coming from the north Europe, it seems that Postwar Spain, Italy, France will endure years of Terrorism.