A more successful Pedro I of Brazil?

[Vinization]

Like it says on the tin. Emperor Pedro was the first ruler of an independent Brazil, and his brief nine year reign was marked by internal turmoil and economic difficulties. He faced rebellions in Pernambuco and Cisplatina (the latter starting a war with Buenos Aires), the intrigues of his absolutist brother Miguel back in Portugal, and had to pay a crushing indemnity of 2 million pounds to secure his country's independence.

So, how could he have been more successful and perhaps not abdicated?

A big part of the problem was the man himself, considering he was an impulsive, autocratic individual.

His biggest mistake, perhaps, was ordering the 1823 Constituent Assembly to be closed down because the Constitution they created didn't satisfy him. He then created a new document on his own that gave him two powers at the same time, the Executive and the Moderator one.

What if this particular event, that happened very early in his reign, didn't happen? Ler's say the Assembly elaborates a document that gives him veto power over legislation, since I doubt he would accept becoming a weak monarch.

Could the Confederation of the Equator be butterflied away?

 

[Vinization]

Calling in @ByzantineCaesar, @Gonzaga and @Antonio the Komnenoi, the last of whom is writing a very promising TL focused on Imperial Brazil.

 

[Ganishka]

He should've let his brother to rule Portugal, be more kind to his wife, stay in Brazil, support the Bolivian offer and give them autonomous status.

Also, refusing to pay the indemnity to Portugal would be the key here.

 

[Vinization]

Forgetting about Dom Miguel and his former homeland entirely would be the best option, but I don't think it would suit Pedro's character. Something has to happen to him, though. Maybe he overthrows Dom João instead, in different circumstances? He did try to, with the support of his mother Carlota Joaquina.

Brazil doesn't need a new province in the middle of the Andes, of all places. Plus, it would look hideous on a map.

I don't think Pedro would be able to refuse to pay the indemnity, since the Royal Navy would probably blockade Rio de Janeiro if he tried to.

My preferred path would be:

Pedro doesn't close the 1823 Assembly --> No/weaker Confederation of the Equator --> A victory in the Cisplatine War --> No abdication and Regency period, along with all of its revolts.

 

[Ganishka]

Brazil doesn't need a new province in the middle of the Andes, of all places. Plus, it would look hideous on a map.

Its needs to be an bi-oceanic country.

Also, having Bolivia may calm Uruguay down. But you would need a Pedro who learns to respect the Spanish-speaking population's rights.

 

[Vinization]

Its needs to be an bi-oceanic country.

Also, having Bolivia may calm Uruguay down. But you would need a Pedro who learns to respect the Spanish-speaking population's rights.

Upper Peru would be a stretch of land completely isolated from Rio de Janeiro. Communications would take months to arrive, at the very least. And Cisplatina would still rebel, especially since Buenos Aires is right there.

 

[Kaiser of Brazil]

Pedro had everything going for him by 1823, he was the beloved and romanticized prince who refused the throne of his father and challenged the Cortes for Brazil. 8 years later he would be a hated tyrant expelled from the country he helped to create.

1) STOP, pardon my French, SEDUCING EVERY WOMAN OF THE COUNTRY. It is believed Pedro had so many affairs that some historians claim he had over 120 bastards. And if he couldn’t keep it to himself and had to go into womanizing adventures at night, do like his son did and keep it secret. Pedro II had an affair with the Countess of Bahal but it wouldn't be discovered until his death, meanwhile, his father paraded with Domitilla like she was his wife. Being unfaithful to your wife, that was much beloved and faithful to him, and brag about your mistresses in a catholic nation where he was supposedly head of the church is a terrible idea.

2) Don’t waste resources in Portugal, the Brazilian people wanted nothing to do with their former metropolis, in fact, the constitution of 1824 specifically said Portugal and Brazil could not be united. When his father died, instead of giving the throne to his underage daughter and basically beg Miguel to launch a coup by giving him ideal circumstances, he should just give the throne to Miguel and be done with it, do not waste resources in Portugal and keep an independent image.

3) Pedro in his later reign (1828-1831) seemed to have become very friendly to groups he once opposed, like Portuguese elites living in Brazil, while opposing the Brazilians and the press. Forming a ministry exclusively of Portuguese and shutting down the opposing press was certainly not a smart idea. He greatly abused the Moderator power, again in contrast to his truly moderate son, and destroyed his image of a neutral head of state that every monarch must preserve (There is a reason Queen Elizabeth rarely, if ever, uses her prerogatives).

Basically, what you need to do is that Pedro becomes more like his son and less like... himself.

 

[Vinization]

snip

Seems like having Dom Miguel succeed in the Vilafrancada (1823) would be a good way of getting rid of the Portuguese question, since he wouldn't overthrow Pedro's daughter. By the time the elder brother can finally interfere, it's too late for him to do anything.

As for his authoritarianism and abuse of power, I suppose not shutting down the 1823 Assembly could help. Let's say their constitution only gives him one power, the Executive, but he also has the ability to veto legislation, appoint ministers and such. These powers can be amended/diluted after he dies from old age in, say, the 1840s/50s.

 

[Guilherme Loureiro]

Pedro doesn't close the 1823 Assembly --> No/weaker Confederation of the Equator --> A victory in the Cisplatine War --> No abdication and Regency period, along with all of its revolts.

Hard to get that first step - the 1823 Assembly sought to create a constitution that only suited land- and slaveowners - the criteria for voting was based on land devoted to manioc production(manioc was then a staple food of the slaves' diet), which meant that anyone that did not grow manioc to feed their slaves(small farmers and urban classes, the latter being a base of support of the Emperor) was disenfranchised. Also, they sought to make the Emperor a decorative figure, something that D.Pedro would not accept. What was called 'The Night of Agony'(the closing of the 1823 Constitutional Assembly) was the conclusion of a power struggle where each side had goals that meant relegating the other side to a powerless position.

A victory on the Cisplatine War is possible - Brazil almost won it by sheer inertia; Buenos Aires was being slowly brought to its knees by the Brazilian blockade, and the Brazilians proved to be quite resilient - after a disastrous February 1827, where Brazil lost at land(Ituzaingó), at sea(losing an entire squadron around Isla Juncal) and failed to shutdown the privateer's base at Carmen de Patagones, Brazil kept the blockade and wiped out what remained of the Buenos Aires Navy at the naval battle of Monte Santiago, on early April.

Either get better leaders at the beginning or have Brazil be in a better economic situation in 1827, thus removing one of the big reasons for wanting peace - Brazil was broke, and most of what money it had was being spent on the war. Which takes me to the point I'm trying to make...

... have D.Pedro I give up on Portugal. In order to keep his dynastic rights to the throne of Portugal, D.Pedro I gave concessions that would either prove to be an millstone around the neck of Brazilian economy(assuming Portuguese debts contracted during the war for independence, as well as paying reparations to Portugal, on top of the Brazilian debts acquired during that war; maintenance of the customs taxes established by the 1810 Treaties, highly favorable to Britain and highly prejudicial to Brazil, given that most of a country's revenues back then were collected by customs) or be quite humiliating(the Treaty that recognized Brazilian independence stated that such independence was 'willingly conceded by the King of Portugal'; the same Treaty also gave the title of 'Emperor of Brazil' to D.João VI; rupture of the ties between Brazil and Portuguese Africa, something that wasn't Pedro's to concede, mostly being between private interests on both sides of the Atlantic; a promise to end the slave trade between Brazil and Africa, as a concession to the 'broker' of the Treaty, the British - this one arose some the bitterest reactions).

A D.Pedro I that doesn't care about Portugal will be able to get a better treaty, which means Brazil is in a better fiscal situation(I've seen estimates for the Brazilian independence debt as being about equivalent to US$ 9 billion(in 2019 dollars)) and his image takes less hits. This may(should?) be enough to win the Cisplatine War, which again bolsters the image of D.Pedro I.

 

[Vinization]

snip

Do you think having Dom Miguel overthrow João VI in 1823 could help? Pedro absolutely despised his brother. That might get rid of the indemnity, but probably not the crushingly low tariffs. The imperial government will have to wait until that particular piece expires to raise them to an acceptable level.

Could the emperor pressure the Assembly to give him some real power, but not as much as in the 1824 constitution? He was still a friend of the Andradas at this time, right? How were its members chosen in the first place?

As for the Cisplatine War, scoring a victory at Sarandi should suffice. It was only after that defeat that we lost control over almost the entire province, with the exception of the ports of Colonia do Sacramento and Montevideo.

 

[Guilherme Loureiro]

Do you think having Dom Miguel overthrow João VI in 1823 could help? Pedro absolutely despised his brother. That might get rid of the indemnity, but probably not the crushingly low tariffs. The imperial government will have to wait until that particular piece expires to raise them to an acceptable level.

Not sure if he 'absolutely despised' his brother. His interactions with Miguel, after he defeated him, seem to have been cordial at the very least, and that wouldn't be the case if he absolutely despised him. If anything, D.Pedro I seems to me a guy who would get really pissed off at you, but would forgive you quickly.

As for Miguel deposing D.João in 1823, it could help, but I don't know enough to know for sure. A problem with that idea is that, besides being impulsive, Pedro was stubborn as well, and being monarch of Brazil and Portugal was exactly the kind of idea he would hold dear(as he did).

As for the tariffs, the British expected them to be abolished, and accepted it as the price for being able to deal with Brazil. The maintenance of the tariffs was a pleasant surprise to them.

Could the emperor pressure the Assembly to give him some real power, but not as much as in the 1824 constitution? He was still a friend of the Andradas at this time, right? How were its members chosen in the first place?

He was not a friend of the Andradas anymore; in fact the power grab by the Assembly only happened(and was only possible) after José Bonifácio was out. Keeping José Bonifácio and his brothers helps a lot, but the fact that both the landowners who wanted D.Pedro as a figurehead and the Portuguese who would become the supporters of D.Pedro wanted the Andradas out(and joined forces in conspiring to have them removed) is an obstacle to keeping them. Keeping the Andradas would solve a lot of problems, though.

As for the members of the Assembly, they were elected(by indirect, censitary voting) by their provinces. So, they were representatives of the high society of the provinces.

As for the Cisplatine War, scoring a victory at Sarandi should suffice. It was only after that defeat that we lost control over almost the entire province, with the exception of the ports of Colonia do Sacramento and Montevideo.

That falls under 'get better leaders at the beginning', but yes - especially since the Argentinians only got involved after Sarandi.

 

[unprincipled peter]

A Pedro better able to navigate the political waters, and be a stabilizing force, would create a situation where both sides could create a new country together. Would everything be smooth walking on rose petals to the alter of love? Probably not, but it could avoid the calamitous cliff edges of dramatic actions (closing an assembly, for example).
I've read that Pedro favored Portuguese factions over colonial Brazilians, and catered too much to Portuguese interests. This alienate the colonials.
The womanizing was arrogant lack of etiquette. Whether Leopoldina died of his physical abuse, as alleged, or innocent complications of pregnancy, her death was a loss. Hard to change that simply by changing his character, unless her death was helped by abuse.
The Cisplatine War is also hard to change, unless you want to imbue this alt Pedro with military capability. The Portuguese simply weren't much for military prowess. Perhaps if veterans of the Cisplatine takeover, or Continental warfare, were still in Brazil, they could form a nucleus of a military. But, it's hard to simply fabricate any sort of military competence out of thin air.


Pretty much all around Pedro was not the right man for the job. A different sperm impregnating the egg might yield a Pedro better suited. He doesn't have to be a superhero figure, but he should be more like a George Washington figure than the OTL Pedro.

And, neglected in all this discussion is the British role. They brokered the independence deal, and did so to favor themselves. It's easy to say Brazil should have done this or that, but ultimately Britain is looking to ensure that any deal/outcome is favorable to Britain first and foremost.

 

[Vinization]

Not sure if he 'absolutely despised' his brother. His interactions with Miguel, after he defeated him, seem to have been cordial at the very least, and that wouldn't be the case if he absolutely despised him. If anything, D.Pedro I seems to me a guy who would get really pissed off at you, but would forgive you quickly.

As for Miguel deposing D.João in 1823, it could help, but I don't know enough to know for sure. A problem with that idea is that, besides being impulsive, Pedro was stubborn as well, and being monarch of Brazil and Portugal was exactly the kind of idea he would hold dear(as he did).

Well that's a surprise. I thought Pedro and Miguel were nearly irreconcilable opponents, the former being shaped by Dom João and the latter by Carlota Joaquina, their parents' rivalry seeping into them.

 

[Vinization]

Say, this is a WI I proposed a while ago, but having the royal family pull their stunt in 1801 instead of in 1808 surely would change Pedro's life significantly, right? Assuming everything else goes as OTL (Porto Revolution and such), the guy would be living in Brazil since the age of three, and would maybe see himself as a Brazilian first and a (Portuguese) Braganza second.

EDIT: He'd still be, well, himself, though.

 

[Vinization]

And, neglected in all this discussion is the British role. They brokered the independence deal, and did so to favor themselves. It's easy to say Brazil should have done this or that, but ultimately Britain is looking to ensure that any deal/outcome is favorable to Britain first and foremost.

Which is why I don't think things such as the low tariffs or the 1830 anti slavery law could be changed.

 

[Ganishka]

Upper Peru would be a stretch of land completely isolated from Rio de Janeiro. Communications would take months to arrive, at the very least.

They could be an autonomous province, maybe Pedro could even nominate his heir the Prince of Bolivia, separating Bolivia from the core Empire of Brazil and turning them into a Principality.

Bolivia wanted protection from the other ex-Spanish colonies, and would also want/need a good degree of autonomy. Why couldn't Brazil offer both? I wouldn't be saying this if they weren't the ones who proposed Pedro.

 

[Guilherme Loureiro]

A Pedro better able to navigate the political waters, and be a stabilizing force, would create a situation where both sides could create a new country together. Would everything be smooth walking on rose petals to the alter of love? Probably not, but it could avoid the calamitous cliff edges of dramatic actions (closing an assembly, for example).
I've read that Pedro favored Portuguese factions over colonial Brazilians, and catered too much to Portuguese interests. This alienate the colonials.
The womanizing was arrogant lack of etiquette. Whether Leopoldina died of his physical abuse, as alleged, or innocent complications of pregnancy, her death was a loss. Hard to change that simply by changing his character, unless her death was helped by abuse.
The Cisplatine War is also hard to change, unless you want to imbue this alt Pedro with military capability. The Portuguese simply weren't much for military prowess. Perhaps if veterans of the Cisplatine takeover, or Continental warfare, were still in Brazil, they could form a nucleus of a military. But, it's hard to simply fabricate any sort of military competence out of thin air.

Pretty much all around Pedro was not the right man for the job. A different sperm impregnating the egg might yield a Pedro better suited. He doesn't have to be a superhero figure, but he should be more like a George Washington figure than the OTL Pedro.

And, neglected in all this discussion is the British role. They brokered the independence deal, and did so to favor themselves. It's easy to say Brazil should have done this or that, but ultimately Britain is looking to ensure that any deal/outcome is favorable to Britain first and foremost.

After the Andradas were in the outs with Pedro, two factions remained(initially in the Constitutional Assembly, later on the Legislative Assembly) which were(generalizing a bit here): rural landowners which favored a federal government with no power invested on the Emperor and the Executive Branch, with all power on the Legislative Assembly(which was controlled by landowners); urban merchants and middle classes. Until the 1920's, 'urban shop-owner' was almost a synonym for 'Portuguese'. So yes, after he foolishly did away with the Andradas, he supported a faction dominated by Portuguese. He wouldn't support the faction that wanted to make him a figurehead.

The womanizing, yes, that was a big problem, and one which did a lot to harm Pedro's image. Note that in my first post, I never mentioned something to fix that - the point is to have a more successful Pedro I, not a completely different one.

There was a large number of veterans of the Cisplatine takeover living in Brazil - as a matter of fact the first and second commanders of the Cisplatine campaign were among them. SEE EDIT. Also, as I said in my first post, Brazil almost won the War due to inertia.

As for the British role, the fact that the British accepted the end of the 1810 tariffs is something that can be found in the records of the British Foreign Office(the orders to the guy who created the Independence Treaty, whose name I forgot right now, explicitly mention that - that's a point that Ricupero strongly makes in his book). Of course, once they found out D.Pedro was willing to sacrifice that for the right to be King of Portugal, they used that to his advantage.

EDIT: Did a giant mix-up regarding the Brazilian army commanders in the Cisplatine War. First commander(Baron of Campo Largo) was a mixed bag, decent brigade commander, not so great theater commander. Sarandi would happen on his watch(although he wasn't the field commander there). Later, he would command a regiment of volunteers and die during Ituzaingó. Second commander was a disaster; decent brigade commander during the Cisplatine takeover, crap theater commander. Last commander of the war(Marquis of Barbacena) was arguably the man for the job, but inherited a crap situation from the previous commander. Still he managed to restore troop morale, and his army did well during Ituzaingó(even if the battle was a strategic defeat).

 

[unprincipled peter]

the point is to have a more successful Pedro I, not a completely different one.

My view is that to have a more successful Pedro, you need a different one. The cause of his lack of success was to a great extent his own doing as a result of his character. You need a better leader, and to get that you need a better/different Pedro.

The alternative is to set up the situation so that it could survive a man of his OTL abilities. Perhaps have Joao set up the split in a more amicable manner, or have Joao not be so greedy regarding 'Uruguay', thus removing a big part of the early challenges.

 

[Vinization]

My view is that to have a more successful Pedro, you need a different one. The cause of his lack of success was to a great extent his own doing as a result of his character. You need a better leader, and to get that you need a better/different Pedro.

The alternative is to set up the situation so that it could survive a man of his OTL abilities. Perhaps have Joao set up the split in a more amicable manner, or have Joao not be so greedy regarding 'Uruguay', thus removing a big part of the early challenges.

Say, this is a WI I proposed a while ago, but having the royal family pull their stunt in 1801 instead of in 1808 surely would change Pedro's life significantly, right? Assuming everything else goes as OTL (Porto Revolution and such), the guy would be living in Brazil since the age of three (practically his whole life), and would maybe see himself as a Brazilian first and a (Portuguese) Braganza second.

EDIT: He'd still be, well, himself, though.

Could this work?

 

[unprincipled peter]

Could this work?

Could this work?

It certainly changes details. Overall trends/attitudes still remain similar, but by changing details, you might find the situation different enough that a similar Pedro doesn't trip over his own feet so much. As I said in that thread, a Spanish invasion to the extent that the court flees in 1801 has some significant butterflies. It massively changes the manner in which Spain is invaded, if at all, in 1808ish. This could have repercussions in Spanish Colonies, and in the conduct of the Nap wars.

Ultimately, though, should the outcome of the Nap wars go generically the same, Portugal is going to want the court back, Brazil isn't going to look kindly on being reduced to a mere colony again, and the Braganzas likely remain the same lackluster family they were OTL.