theeconomist.com, Sunday July 1st
As Conventions Approach, Democrats and Republicans Face Identity Crisis
It hasn’t been a primary season for the feint of heart. The Republican race was supposed to be a straight forward two horse race between Vice-President Liz Clark and former White House Chief of Staff Henry Shallick - a battle that was going to be defined by whether Clark’s more socially liberal positions would scupper her bid before Shallick’s lack of charisma doomed his chances.
The most exciting question on everyone’s mind at the start of the race was whether President Walken would be able to choose between the woman he elevated to the Vice-Presidency and the man who who had been his closest political ally for thirty years.
Of course nothing of the kind happened - before Clark’s platform could cause her any problems she collapsed under the weight of the campaign seemingly leaving the floor clear to a Shallick coronation. Enter Peter Gault. The little known Kansas Governor filled the void in the heart of every primary voter who didn’t like Shallick, or was bored of the same old Washington politicians or wanted to lodge a protest against something, anything. Gault became all things to all people and additionally showed a campaigning prowess, and a folksy charisma that nobody seen coming.
As Gault gained momentum the race really turned in Indiana where a contested result came to be seen as an establishment stitch up - an angle played expertly by Gault and his team, though even they couldn’t have anticipated the explosion of support in Pennsylvania that turned a 30 point deficit into a stunning victory, depriving Shallick of his path to the required number of delegates and all but guaranteeing a contested convention.
Gault has his challenges, he’s as socially conservative as you’d expect the Republican Governor of Kansas to be - but the quotes and positions that have scuppered many candidates in the past seem to barely scratch the armour of Gault and if anything have helped build and almost cult like loyalty in his growing army of online supporters.
If Gault secures the nomination it will represent an existential crisis for the Republican establishment. Shallick was their candidate, Gault is a small government, almost libertarian conservative, he wants to audit the Federal Reserve and has been spoken out against all sorts of subsidies. He has railed against corporate welfare and has led some conservatives to question what exactly he thinks the role of the Federal Government is - GOP strategist James Eaton joked that “the reason he won’t clarify which parts of the Federal Government he wants to eliminate is that it would take to long”, though he is pretty clear that a tougher stance on immigration is one thing they should be doing. On top of that he would, without doubt, be the most anti-free trade Republican nominee in living memory. Should Gault win the GOP will need to decide whether it truly wants to govern on his platform or one of their own.
The kind of chaos facing the Republicans should be making things pretty easy on their opponents but The Democrats are facing an identity crisis of their own. Eight years out of the White House have seen the party split repeatedly over just how far to the left they want to go. The infamous “Youth in Revolt” movement have faded into history but a number of their leading members are now leading party figures like Washington Senator Andrew Howard and DNC Chairman Stefan Collins both came to prominence as part of the group.
California Senator Sam Seaborn came through the primaries by running to the left of New York’s Andrew Thorn - a position somewhat at odds with his previous positions. He spoke against free trade, he seemed to advocate significant increase in welfare spending and as the race got tougher a man who could comfortably be positioned as part of the 1% during his time as a lawyer repeatedly attacked the rich.
Having secured the nomination on what seemed like a swing to the left, Seaborn then stunned the political world by tapping billionaire Frank Hollis as his VP - he months that have ensued suggest an emerging clash between Hollis and Seaborn’s staff over exactly what his role will be both on the trail and should they make it to Washington. Hollis could face a fairly hostile convention crowd who were more surprised than most about the pick.
What is likely to emerge over the next few weeks is a fascinating race. If Shallick finds a deal at the convention - most likely by elevating California Congressman Will Durham to the Vice-President spot on the ticket we may yet see a traditional left vs right contest, but if Gault prevails the GOP will have a very short time to unite behind a fairly unconventional nominee - there has been little buzz over who Gault would look to in the VP slot until the past week but a lot of talk is building behind Ohio’s Ruth Norton-Stewart who was second on President Walken’s shortlist and is very popular amongst GOP loyalists.
The Democrats have their own hurdles to navigate - Hollis needs to calm nerves over the next few weeks and most notably at the convention and Seaborn needs to start to be clear what his platform will be, is he a Bartlet rehash or something new and more progressive. We shall hopefully know more as one of the most critical points in the election cycle nears.