Have the Japanese noticed the various changes that have taken place in the British and Dutch Far East colonies, of course they have, they have an extensive intelligence system in place. However they have a number of problems, the first of which is their interpretation of what these changes mean, and the effect they have on their plans. A prime example is the appointment of the Lord Gort and the change in the command structure, it can be viewed as a sop to a failure who has significant influence within the establishment, and has been given a position and title to soothe his supporters and massage his ego. After all this is the former commander of the BEF, who lost to the Germans, and failed to regain his honour by sacrificing his life for his Emperor, as any Japanese officer would have done. And much the same can be said of Park, who as the successful leader of the defence of Southern Britain during the Battle of Britain, should have replaced Dowding as the head of Fighter Command on his retirement. Has instead been sent out to what is a colonial backwater, which only goes to show that there is something lacking in him, or that being a colonial himself he is viewed as a second class leader.
Nor not having a trans dimensional crystal ball, and any knowledge of the events IOTL, do the Japanese realise just how much the numerous changes minor and major, have made to the British position. The withdrawal of the majority of the Hong Kong garrison, can be viewed in two ways, a sensible action that takes into account the impossibility of defending the colony, and strengths the defence of Malaysia. Or a desperate measure taken in desperation, by a nation that has been significantly weakened by events in Europe and the Middle East. The fact that unlike IOTL all the combat troops have received basic jungle warfare training, and also have a basic knowledge of Japanese tactics. Is something that significantly improves the British ground forces, in acomparison to those of OTL. The appointment of Park and the major improvements made to the tactics, and facilities of the British Airforces, is going to be a huge shock to the Japanese. Malaya and Singapore now have a basic air defence system, under the control of a very skilled leadership.
In the same way the improvements made to the Civil Administration, and the deployment of trained troops to support the Civil Power. Along with the better preparations made, in all areas, mean that there is very little chance of a breakdown of control, as there was IOTL. The improvements made to the local naval forces, especially on the West Coast, where the Japanese have no naval assets, or any chance of them prior to a complete collapse and surrender of Singapore. Will mean that the Japanese are not able to as they did IOTL, gather together local shipping and carry out outflanking operations, but will instead have to batter their way against the British defence forces directly. The various improvements made to the air defence system in Malaya and particularly Singapore, mean that the Japanese will not be able to dominate the skies as they did IOTL. And given just how much they relied on luck to achieve their goals, every little setback is going to seriously impact their ability to achieve their plans. Yes the Japanese are receiving up to date intelligence about events in the British and Dutch colonies, but given just how overstretched their are, they do not have the strategic depth to seriously change their plans.
In 1941, the Japanese were very much out on a limb, desperate for vital resources, and four years into a costly war in China. The best of their officers were concentrated on this war, and the best of their intelligence analysts, were focused on the threat from China and the United States, not Britain or Holland. The principal naval threat was the USN, which had a large uncommitted fleet in the Pacific, which had been recently forwarded deployed to the Hawaiian Islands. The rag tag and bobtail naval forces available to the British and Dutch were not seen as a threat, and were not the subject of interest that the American fleet was. The British didn’t have heavy bombers to spare unlike the Americans, nor did they have any of their most modern fighters available, all they basically had were European rejects and obsolescent aircraft. So a constant question for the Japanese was, were the British truly committed to the defence of their colonies, and were the Dutch able to defend their colonies. All questions that needed to be addressed without allowing their own biases of Japanese superiority to cloud their judgement.
RR.
