8mm to the Left: If Hitler Died in 1923

[KaiserKatze]

I think this might also be just me, but I think that if push comes to shove, Britain would back France, they're easier to... Nudge in the right direction and having them be stronger is preferable to Germany being stronger(because they're not as easy to push around) and because France wouldn't be able to take significant territory outside of maybe the Saar, it would still leave Germany strong enough to act as counter against the USSR and keep the status quo in Central(and to a lesser extent, Eastern) Europe that only benefits Britain not having to intervene there.

I concur on this. Without a massive change to France that makes supporting them unfeasible, they are simply the safer option, as they are basically doomed to remain inferior to Britain in things like economy, while Germany would be an equal which might potentially eclipse them.

People always say ww2 was what killed the big colonial empires but I would argue it was WW1 that did it as it put them into immense debt, loss of life and the use of colonial troops raised a generation of Africans and Asians that were to become politically active and demand more and more rights for their people. Even without a WW2, outside of some important colonies, maintaining the huge empires is not a viable thing, so there's something for Britain to stress over in places like the Raj or the Middle East.

On this I also agree. Though I think that is more to do with Britain and France than, say, the Dutch, whose hold on Indonesia, I feel, would have lasted longer without WW2.

I do agree that Germany prob would gain Alsace-Lorraine, but I do think they'll probably not agitate for anything more except Corsican independence/unification with Italy, which I doubt would happen considering how Germany don't care about Italy either. But if the germans want it, I see corsica as the most likely region outside of Alsace-Lorraine to be lost.

I sort of see Germany being willing to push for Corsican union with France on a basis of 1) Punishing France, and 2) Feeling just a bit of empathy for their fellow late-stage unifier.

 

[Migrant_Coconut]

Is the federalisation of France with strong minority language laws a weakened France? It is definitely not run the way the French would want, but their power is still very much present.

And if France loses any hypothetical alt WWII and with Germany being the victor they're going to be punished no matter what. If Germany ensures that French society still functioned well enough I think it would work. tbf as with any war it is about winning the peace after the guns go silent.

Pretty much. A Morgenthau-ed France is impossible, but a Marshall-ed France isn't.

 

[GrimmJow007]

I concur on this. Without a massive change to France that makes supporting them unfeasible, they are simply the safer option, as they are basically doomed to remain inferior to Britain in things like economy, while Germany would be an equal which might potentially eclipse them.

France's problem in relation to Great Britain is demographic, considering that metropolitan France is larger, richer in natural resources and with more fertile soil than Great Britain, and is also geographically closer to its colonial countries in Africa. If the right-wing government (or the far-right, if Mauras comes to power) manages to reverse France's low demographic growth, France could once again have a certain demographic advantage over the British (not impossible, considering that France, after the devastation and deprivation of World War II, saw a notable increase in birth rates during the Baby Boom). As we know, Germany only became the greatest power in continental Europe due to the very low French demographic growth (in 1815-1820 France had 30 million inhabitants compared to Germany's 22 million). Therefore, the major power status of Britain and Germany over France is not set in stone.

 

[Quinkana]

On this I also agree. Though I think that is more to do with Britain and France than, say, the Dutch, whose hold on Indonesia, I feel, would have lasted longer without WW2.

Yeah I agree. Speaking of Indonesia and Malaysia, a world without a WWII would be very different. One possibility is Malaysia and Indonesia never forming together, instead we would get states like Sarawak and Sabah forming a nation while Malaya forms another nation, while Aceh and Indonesian Papua would also want out from Javan domination.

I don't know if all these independence movements could pan out, but it would be interesting to look into it.

I sort of see Germany being willing to push for Corsican union with France on a basis of 1) Punishing France, and 2) Feeling just a bit of empathy for their fellow late-stage unifier.

hmm makes sense. I could see it out of German anger of being promised nationalist referendums for everyone but receiving none, especially in places like Danzig and Alsace-Lorraine.

It would make it quite funny for Italy to gain land after they basically tried to destroy the European order though.

Pretty much. A Morgenthau-ed France is impossible, but a Marshall-ed France isn't.

yeah, I don't see Brittany and Occitan-speaking regions seceding, only that their languages are much more healthy demographically speaking, and that there will be a undercurrent of separatism in these regions due to the protections.

France's problem in relation to Great Britain is demographic, considering that metropolitan France is larger, richer in natural resources and with more fertile soil than Great Britain, and is also geographically closer to its colonial countries in Africa. If the right-wing government (or the far-right, if Mauras comes to power) manages to reverse France's low demographic growth, France could once again have a certain demographic advantage over the British (not impossible, considering that France, after the devastation and deprivation of World War II, saw a notable increase in birth rates during the Baby Boom). As we know, Germany only became the greatest power in continental Europe due to the very low French demographic growth (in 1815-1820 France had 30 million inhabitants compared to Germany's 22 million). Therefore, the major power status of Britain and Germany over France is not set in stone.

It would be interesting if it happened, but it would have to be extremely drastic for it to work at all.

 

[Quinkana]

speaking of interesting concepts I wonder if Poland would be compensated with being under a union with Lithuania if Germany gets Danzig after the war. It'd satisfy Polish interests while giving Germany what it wants, and the PLC is something that I think would be remembered by the historically astute.

 

[Kosaki_MacTavish]

Yeah I agree. Speaking of Indonesia and Malaysia, a world without a WWII would be very different. One possibility is Malaysia and Indonesia never forming together, instead we would get states like Sarawak and Sabah forming a nation while Malaya forms another nation, while Aceh and Indonesian Papua would also want out from Javan domination.

I don't know if all these independence movements could pan out, but it would be interesting to look into it.

Clearly depended on what the Indonesian (or Indies) Nationalists managed to do, tbh. The Javanese-led Nationalist Movement actually relented to have Common Malay adopted into Indonesian Language in 1928 since it use was far more widespread than Javanese.

If they managed to get Aceh and Papuan intellectuals in their circle, there would be a strong pan-Indonesian (or at least Pan-Indies) sentiment like OTL 1945-1949 espoused by Aceh ulemas (who got recruited by Japan in the Occupation), or Papuans such as Markus Kaisiepo and Marthen Indey who was working together with (ex-Digoel convicts) Indonesian Nationalists. But if the Dutch nipped them in the bud and outright separates Papua as its own territory (5th Part of the Empire) with its own educational system, then the Indonesians can't do anything about annexing them since they (especially the Western-educated ones like like Mohammad Hatta and Soetan Sjahrir) respected Uti Possidetis Juri. There was also two strong political movements within the Central Mollucas and Minahasan Peninsula for them to be added as a proper Dutch provinces since both of them enjoyed pretty high standards of life and also far more culturally assimilated compared to the rest of the Dutch East Indies.

Establishing a puppet state which respected their cultural autonomy like the actual aims of Konfrontasi is still a possibility, though, but it's for the 50s/60s stuffs. OTL Vorstenlanden (Yogyakarta and Surakarta monarchies) only managed to remained exist within the Republic until now because its rulers proclaimed their loyalty to the Republic first rather than waiting to be subdued by the Indoensian nationalists youths.

Besides all of that, i'm actually very intrigued with the parallel development of both Indies Nationalism (emerged in 1911 by Ernest Douwes Dekker, which advocates for a common equality regardless of race and religion as long as you are loyal to the Indies homeland, empashizing shared Indies identity to unite the nation, and demanding independence from the Netherlands), Indies Commonwealth movement (emerged in 1917 by Hubertus van Mook, which advocates for a self-government for East Indies, respecting cultural differences and espousing cooperation, and to have an equal standing with other parts within the Kingdom of the Netherlands), and successor of the aforementioned Indies Nationalism, Indonesian Nationalism (emerged in 1924 by Soekarno, a pupil of Douwes Dekker, which is a bit more strict regarding who is considered as natives, also more empashizing on cultural uniformity between the existing natives, and outright demands independence from the Dutch).

The Commonwealth proposal initially have the upper hand because of their all-encompassing nature, but when Colijn, Welter, and other Dutch conservatives and reactionaries aren't willing to gave an inch for the Indies autonomy throughout 1936-1941, the Indonesian Nationalists won, especially after the Japanese knocked down the colonial government.

Edit: A massive one to correct which one is which regarding the three self-governmental movements in the Dutch East Indies. Ernest DD advocates for independence since the start unlike Van Mook which aimed for a Commonwealth. Pinged @L'amateur d'aéroplanes, @KaiserKatze, @Strategos' Risk, @Quinkana, and @Carlos I de Quito since i did not want to create a wrong impression.

 

[Migrant_Coconut]

Maybe Johor, Singapore and Malacca form South Malaysia?

 

[Kosaki_MacTavish]

Maybe Johor, Singapore and Malacca form South Malaysia?

About Malaysia, idk much about the politics of the Peninsular states, but the Northern Bornean states can either enjoyed a high degree of autonomy within the future Malaysia (unlike a nominal autonomy OTL) or outright independence as a single, federated state.

 

[Migrant_Coconut]

About Malaysia, idk much about the politics of the Peninsular states, but the Northern Bornean states can either enjoyed a high degree of autonomy within the future Malaysia (unlike a nominal autonomy OTL) or outright independence as a single, federated state.

IMO the bigger problem is the tension between the multicultural Straits Settlements and the Malay ethno-nationalists in the rest of the country. Caused a lot of grief in the decades after the British left.

 

[Kosaki_MacTavish]

IMO the bigger problem is the tension between the multicultural Straits Settlements and the Malay ethno-nationalists in the rest of the country. Caused a lot of grief in the decades after the British left.

Oh yeah, i forgot about the racial aspect of Peninsular politics. The struggle between Pan-Malaysian Nationalists and the Malay Nationalists.

 

[gradje]

Reichsland-Lösung – Wikipedia

de-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog

Will this proposal be playing a role in future events or not really?

I feel like it's going to be an ecclectic mix of the Reichsland Solution and Hugo Preuss' proposal for federal reform. A culled Prussia, but still first among equals. (Please give me Greater Lower Saxony)

Which reminds me, why wasn't the Hessian Rhineland included in the deal that created the Rhenish State out of Bavarian, Oldenburgian, Belgian and Saarish land?

Speaking of Dullfuss, what's he doing right now in the TL? He was assassinated in 1934 in OTL by Nazis in an attempted coup, but no Nazis (or at least no German Nazi Party to support) no failed coup. Presumably he's still in charge of Austria, but what else is he doing?

I honestly think he'd be more pro-German than IRL. Austria is still seen as a German state after all, but one that doesn't have to be a part of Germany. And with Germany more leaning towards a genuine federalism, as the deal with Bavaria has shown, Austria is basically set to join Germany anyways. That Austro-German customs union is certainly coming. The question is how much resistance elements of Austria's political class will put up and if they're going to have to be removed forcefully

On that note, with the Action Francaise being the dominant force in the French Right, I could see the main difference between a right-wing France and Fascist Italy in ideology being that while Italian Fascism is an ideology built around a "national revolution" and has roots in national-syndicalist thought while the right-wing regime in Paris is self-consciously reactionary in tone and rhetoric with its nostalgic views on the ancien regime and all that.

Just two different factions of the Conservative Revolution really. Fascism here is just the National Revolutionary subsection, whilst Action Francaise is bit harder to place because it's much more strongly rooted in French political tradition (duh) but will certainly be counted with it.

It is actually very fascinating to me how, according to the 1936 electoral map, the areas most opposed to the Popular Front were Brittany, Alsace-Lorraine, and Corsica, the biggest minority regions. What they wanted was autonomy under a Catholic, Conservative government, but what was being pushed was either a Centralist, Communist one or a regionalist but French nationalist one. They really had no good options, and it sort of makes one understand why it took something worse, like the Nazis, to really break the idea of seperation

The Basque Country is Spain was the opposite. Catholic and conservative but siding with the Republicans because they were willing to offer autonomy. Honestly, the Basques could've been a better fit for the Carlists. Well, they and Catalonia were Carlist hotbeds during those wars...

France's problem in relation to Great Britain is demographic, considering that metropolitan France is larger, richer in natural resources and with more fertile soil than Great Britain, and is also geographically closer to its colonial countries in Africa. If the right-wing government (or the far-right, if Mauras comes to power) manages to reverse France's low demographic growth, France could once again have a certain demographic advantage over the British (not impossible, considering that France, after the devastation and deprivation of World War II, saw a notable increase in birth rates during the Baby Boom). As we know, Germany only became the greatest power in continental Europe due to the very low French demographic growth (in 1815-1820 France had 30 million inhabitants compared to Germany's 22 million). Therefore, the major power status of Britain and Germany over France is not set in stone.

One of the reasons for France's demographic plateau in the 19th century I have seen come up and confirmed to me in my education is land inheritance law. The splitting of land amongst all sons of a farmer creates unlivable plots of land. If you reform that, and open up some nice land in Algeria to younger sons, it may be a part of the solution to that

Yeah I agree. Speaking of Indonesia and Malaysia, a world without a WWII would be very different. One possibility is Malaysia and Indonesia never forming together, instead we would get states like Sarawak and Sabah forming a nation while Malaya forms another nation, while Aceh and Indonesian Papua would also want out from Javan domination.

Aceh being left out of Indonesia is honestly a positive for the rest of the archipelago.

 

[Kosaki_MacTavish]

Aceh being left out of Indonesia is honestly a positive for the rest of the archipelago.

Depends whether Daud Beureuh got his Japanese support like OTL to overthrow the Dutch-aligned Aceh Nobles (who are a more syncretic) or not.

 

[KaiserKatze]

I feel like it's going to be an ecclectic mix of the Reichsland Solution and Hugo Preuss' proposal for federal reform. A culled Prussia, but still first among equals. (Please give me Greater Lower Saxony)

You will be disappointed

Which reminds me, why wasn't the Hessian Rhineland included in the deal that created the Rhenish State out of Bavarian, Oldenburgian, Belgian and Saarish land?

Do you want the in-universe reason or the meta?

In-universe: Mainz was much more integrated into Hessen than the other two, owning several bouroughs on the other side of the river which would have had to be seperated, plus it being contiguous with Hessen would make it harder to split off now, especially when targeting just one city, compared to the larger region owned by Bavaria or the wholly disconnected Oldenburger bit. Plus, a deal with Hessen can be made later on, perhaps alongside a fusion with Prussian Hessen.

Meta: I legit forgot that Hessen owned part of the Rheinland in this era 😬

I honestly think he'd be more pro-German than IRL. Austria is still seen as a German state after all, but one that doesn't have to be a part of Germany. And with Germany more leaning towards a genuine federalism, as the deal with Bavaria has shown, Austria is basically set to join Germany anyways. That Austro-German customs union is certainly coming. The question is how much resistance elements of Austria's political class will put up and if they're going to have to be removed forcefully

I see him as being less opposed than IRL initially, but he also distrusts von Lettow-Vorbeck as a Prussian. If Adenauer was the leading force, he would probably be willing to do it, but he is wary enough, and Italy is eager enough to keep Austria on their side, that it has blocked union. The fact that the people are so pro-German, which therefore undermines his authority, also contributes to his not wanting to join.

The Basque Country is Spain was the opposite. Catholic and conservative but siding with the Republicans because they were willing to offer autonomy. Honestly, the Basques could've been a better fit for the Carlists. Well, they and Catalonia were Carlist hotbeds during those wars...

That's actually quite surprising to me, I'd have thought them as being Republican all the way. Of course, did the Carlist movement really have any chance of winning? Not really

 

[Quinkana]

IMO the bigger problem is the tension between the multicultural Straits Settlements and the Malay ethno-nationalists in the rest of the country. Caused a lot of grief in the decades after the British left.

I don't think it could ever be solved, and with fascism and communism having less reach otl (but very still being something that could be read/learnt) I wonder if we would see a fascist Malaysian state in Malaya.

About Malaysia, idk much about the politics of the Peninsular states, but the Northern Bornean states can either enjoyed a high degree of autonomy within the future Malaysia (unlike a nominal autonomy OTL) or outright independence as a single, federated state.

tbf Sarawak and Sabah are majority christian at that time, and were dominated by Chinese and native austronesians at least in Sarawak (and Sarawak is still dominated by Chinese and Iban ppl irl). I could see a split Malaysia actually working quite well, especially since the Brookes won't abdicate due to WWII too.

You know what, the Kingdom of Sarawak and Sabah sounds very cool.

I honestly think he'd be more pro-German than IRL. Austria is still seen as a German state after all, but one that doesn't have to be a part of Germany. And with Germany more leaning towards a genuine federalism, as the deal with Bavaria has shown, Austria is basically set to join Germany anyways. That Austro-German customs union is certainly coming. The question is how much resistance elements of Austria's political class will put up and if they're going to have to be removed forcefully.

I think Dolfuss would be put in a much worse light than otl, considering his moves against German unification, and I think he'll be forced to take more and more drastic actions to keep Austria independent even if he is more pro-german than otl. After all, he still wants to keep Austria independent, while a significant amount of Austrian ppl don't exactly want an independent state.

One of the reasons for France's demographic plateau in the 19th century I have seen come up and confirmed to me in my education is land inheritance law. The splitting of land amongst all sons of a farmer creates unlivable plots of land. If you reform that, and open up some nice land in Algeria to younger sons, it may be a part of the solution to that

Hmm land reform for the French is something that is plausible and if it would help alleviate population problems would be interesting to see, especially if it means that they could colonise Algeria with more intensity. It would be interesting to see what would happen if the white/pro-french population in Algeria was much larger.

Aceh being left out of Indonesia is honestly a positive for the rest of the archipelago.

hmm idk why you say that, but an Aceh, minahasah and Papua that isn't part of Java-dominated Indonesia would be cool in general.

Is it possible for Sumatran or Sulawesi to go out by itself though? I could see the Dutch attempting to divide and conquer, as with the British, in these regions, considering that Malaysia and Indonesia were never ruled as one unit, and a split SEA was just as plausible as what we got otl.

 

[Migrant_Coconut]

I don't think it could ever be solved, and with fascism and communism having less reach otl (but very still being something that could be read/learnt) I wonder if we would see a fascist Malaysian state in Malaya.

And Penang and Dinding are impossible to keep independent, so that’s off the table as well.

If Malaysia does go fascist (or even without that), I fully support Malacca/Johor/Singapore breaking off and doing their own thing. Old Man Lee could probably pull a freaking space program out of his ass with enough hinterland to work with.

 

[Whiteshore]

And Penang and Dinding are impossible to keep independent, so that’s off the table as well.

If Malaysia does go fascist (or even without that), I fully support Malacca/Johor/Singapore breaking off and doing their own thing. Old Man Lee could probably pull a freaking space program out of his ass with enough hinterland to work with.

On that note, even without Johor, the Straits Settlements being their own country post-decolonization would be quite interesting to discuss in terms of the kind of entity it would entail.

 

[Migrant_Coconut]

On that note, even without Johor, the Straits Settlements being their own country post-decolonization would be quite interesting to discuss in terms of the kind of entity it would entail.

Dunno about that, Malacca minus Johor might as well have “ANNEX ME” on its forehead in bright neon orange. Singapore got away because it was an island and Malaysia was sick of them.

 

[Quinkana]

And Penang and Dinding are impossible to keep independent, so that’s off the table as well.

If Malaysia does go fascist (or even without that), I fully support Malacca/Johor/Singapore breaking off and doing their own thing. Old Man Lee could probably pull a freaking space program out of his ass with enough hinterland to work with.

Yeah it would be interesting to see how it goes if the Malayans go full fascist. In irl I frequently hear Chinese Malaysians talk about how they are second tier citizens within the SEA countries, and if they get any worse it'd be a bad time for the Chinese in SEA. I think retaining Sarawak as a nation with no Pacific war makes a lot of sense too, considering the POD is hitler dying in the 1920s, so perhaps the Japanese would focus on fighting in Siberia when the opportunity present itself.

All in all a very different decolonisation process in SEA is very plausible ittl.

On that note, even without Johor, the Straits Settlements being their own country post-decolonization would be quite interesting to discuss in terms of the kind of entity it would entail.

Dunno about that, Malacca minus Johor might as well have “ANNEX ME” on its forehead in bright neon orange. Singapore got away because it was an island and Malaysia was sick of them.

tbf that would be very interesting to see in general, as they would definitely have a very different interactions and alliances with each other. For example a Sarawak-johor/singapore alliance against Malaya backed with Sarawakian steel would be interesting to see.

 

[Angmar]

Germany also struggled with demographic problems after the First World War.
Will Lettow-Vorbeck also do something about it?
I have to say, I find this an interesting topic because it was also one of the core issues of the Nazis.
Someone who manages to solve this issue in a humane way is very good

 

[Kosaki_MacTavish]

Is it possible for Sumatran or Sulawesi to go out by itself though? I could see the Dutch attempting to divide and conquer, as with the British, in these regions, considering that Malaysia and Indonesia were never ruled as one unit, and a split SEA was just as plausible as what we got otl.

A full split into a bunch of independent nations is out of question. The Papuan Issue is already divisive enough within the Dutch Right, let alone the Dutch Left who vehemently opposed it.

Hubertus van Mook (i have talked a bit about him with @KaiserKatze beforehand) actually proposed for an Indies Sovereignity (albeit in a federative form unlike Ernst DD's more unitarive form) since the 1917 Indies Student Congress at Leiden and ironically would be not to dissimilar with Ernst DD's advocacy for a united Indies identity. But sadly both got sidelined by the Dutch Right.

I can see Central Moluccas and Minahasa enjoyed special autonomy in a future Indies nation should Van Mook's vision came true, and afterwards the other vassal states like Aceh Sultanate and the Javanese Vorstenlanden got their autonomy in the Federal Republic of the East Indies. Soekarno and Ernst DD's vision would be a bit more unitary but with limited autonomy, unless Soekarno (or Hoesni Thamrin) got put in charge by the Japanese and instilled proper centralized government.