Until Every Drop of Blood Is Paid: A More Radical American Civil War

The greatest effect of this TL on future social media will be that those people who are unsufferably annoying about their irish heritage will be even more common.
 
If widows are a much more significant portion of the population, might this translate into a culture where women in general have more autonomy, simply by necessity?

Additional question: how many of those women will travel North in search of more opportunities?

Come to think of it, racial equality would be helped along greatly if in addition to the South getting paraguay'd, white female southerners migrated en-masse to the north in search of work and hopefully a husband. Numbers would be more equal that way.

Edit: now I'm imagining a planters daughter having to work as a nanny or housekeeper to a well-off New York family in Gramercy Park, or maybe a New England family in Newport. I get a little kick out of that, and I'm not sure if I'm supposed to feel bad about that.

Edit edit: actually come to think of it, planters daughters would be highly sought-after as nannies - with the expectation that a woman of her upbringing could be trusted to teach the girls how a lady ought to behave.

Edit edit edit: now I'm imagining bits of the South creeping into the dialect of wealthy northerners because of this phenomenon, as back then above a certain class the nanny (or governess or au pair) basically raised the children.
 
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that's good but I rember reading somewhere the Engels was thinking of organizing some volunteers. and why not both. I say more the merrier the more leftist fighting to abolish slavery there is the better the praxis.
Yeah sure. Maybe I'll include that in a prose mini update, because I feel it would be tacked on in a regular update.

Willich sounds interesting, I just read his Wikipedia article for the first time. If he is captured in this timeline like before he won't be exchanged that quickly. That might impact his views even more.

It would also be a way possibly to have him more accepting of faith movements then he might have been in our timeline, as Faith could become more important to him as he spends many more months in a Confederate prison. I mentioned before the importance Christianity plays and how big it was in pushing abolition in the United States. It is going to be a lot harder in America to get any sort of movement that is totally anti-god in this era.

Then again, I have also heard it argued that Karl Marx did not intend to be totally anti God, just against the stale, formalized religion which does not emphasize a relationship with God. When he said religion is an opiate, for instance, at that time opium was used differently then it became, it was not an addictive drug but was seen as a pain reliever.

So, you have a variety of ways to go with someone like Willich.
Christian socialism is something that really interests me. In fact, an ideology like that is present in my other TL, though it's more like Catholic socialism there. In any case, I agree that "Godless socialism" wouldn't be well received, and Christian socialism would probably pair well with the already very religious abolitionist movement.

... Not in King Lincoln's America...

More seriously, speaking on Willich, I am curious as to what his role will be in Reconstruction. As of 1863, Willich should be a brigade commander or a division commander if he's lucky. Willich was definitely a talented commander at a tactical level but his military career on the field ended after he was badly wounded at Resaca in 1864. He stayed in the army until 1866 and was assigned to Texas IIRC. Willich might have proven to be useful during the military occupation of the South. IOTL, most military commanders were very reluctant to take on civil responsibilities. Of the five district commanders, only Sheridan actively assisted the formation of the Union leagues and the Republican Party, and used his powers to remove numerous officeholders for impeding Reconstruction. With Lincoln still in the helm to preside over Reconstruction, he could definitely appoint officers that were more in line with the Republican agenda.

  • Charles Griffin: ITTL Brig. Gen. Griffin would probably be a division commander in the Army of the Potomac. Though irascible and foul-mouthed*, Griffin was a capable soldier who was promoted to corps command in 1865. During Reconstruction, Griffin actively and energetically sought to register white and black voters in Texas and get rid of any state and county officeholders who were "impediments to reconstruction" with Republicans and Unionists. Interestingly, Griffin was not a Republican but felt compelled to act against Democratic or pro-Confederate officeholders out of duty. However, Griffin died from Yellow Fever in 1867.
  • Joseph A. Mower: During the ACW, Mower was Sherman's protege and perhaps one of the most tactically brilliant commanders on Union side. By the war's end, Mower was promoted to corps commander. During Reconstruction, Mower's command was reduced to the 39th U.S. Infantry, which was a regiment of African-Americans Mower helped to recruit in Louisiana. Like Sheridan, Mower took an active approach to Reconstruction. During the vote for the constitutional convention in Louisiana in late September 1867, Mower sent troop detachments to several Louisiana parishes to preserve order at the polls and prevent voter intimidation. Furthermore, Mower, like Griffin, removed any officeholders who threatened to impede Reconstruction. Unfortunately, Mower was moved aside by Hancock, when the conservative general was sent to replace Sheridan.
  • E.R.S. Canby: During the ACW, Canby was something of a background character. He mostly served in clerical roles in Washington D.C. and New York until he was called up to replace Banks in the Army of the Gulf. Canby is oft regarded to be a fair administrator of Reconstruction, seeking to protect the freedman's rights while stepping on as few as toes as possible. Even though some ex-Confederates denounced him as a radical Republican, they grudgingly admitted that he was fair.

    * An infamous episode of Griffin's irascible nature is when Grant first met Griffin at the Battle of the Wilderness, the latter was ranting and complaining about the incompetence of his corps commander G.K. Warren. After Griffin finished ranting, an astonished Grant turned to Meade and asked, "Who is this General Gregg? You ought to arrest him!"
    Meade, having worked with Griffin before, shrugged and replied, "It's Griffin, not Gregg; and it's only his way of talking."

Outside of military duty, I am concerned with Willich's political future. While I admire him as a man of action instead of just flirting with the ideals of a better world, I must note with disappointment that Willich later chose to side with the Liberal Republicans out of disgust for the corruption, high tariffs and particularly the increased and significant influence of monopolists in the Grant administration. "Radical Warrior: August Willich's Journey from German Revolutionary to Union General" by David Dixon also notes that Willich might not have made for a very good politician. His primary flaws were his stubbornness and aversion to any compromise, his lack of ambition, and his failure to become more conversant in the English language.

Interestingly, after the failure of the Liberal Republicans, Willich became active in the People's Party, a fusion of Ohio Democrats and Liberal Republicans aimed at improving the welfare of the common man.
I am always looking for radical military commanders, because on their shoulders is the enforcement of confiscation and the protection of the new regimes. So we need people resolved to do justice to the Freedmen. So I can't thank you enough for this list. Willich interests me mainly as a way to obtain such a military commander. Also, because it'd be interesting to see if he creates communal farms or similar. I don't know if he has a political career beyond Reconstruction. Maybe as a carpetbagger? I did not know he was a Liberal Republican, and it's disappointing to hear so.

well it be interesting if becomes a prominent politician with such radical veiws and if can avoid the corruption that would keep the radical republicans together.
I've already said it, but it's difficult if not impossible to avoid the corruption of the Gilded Age completely. Some steps towards reform that might deflate the Liberal movement can be taken.

The image is broken.
I'll try to fix it but sometimes I wonder what's the point since links end up broken all the time.

On the issue of culture again, I wonder how the experience of slavery and the Planter's Rebellion would be translated to culture in a world where a black inteligentsia exists with far more cultural oompf than OTL. I'm imagining a black horror writer contemporary with Lovercraft but with a schtick kind of like Guillermo del Toro, where most of his books have a monster that becomes more human as time goes on and a human antagonist who becomes more monstrous as the story continues - more Frankenstein than Innsmouth.

"Humans are the real monsters" is a trope I would imagine becomes common in TTL's nascent horror genre around the turn of the century.
I have thought about this as well. I considered that something similar to Latin American "indigenismo" might arise, examining the relations between the dominant white classes and the oppresed minorities from the point of view of the minorities themselves. But I like your proposal much better. I think examinations of greed and prejudice would be particularly common.

@Salurial It would also be nice for the film that boasts all of the technical innovations of The Birth of a Nation, which unveiled cinema as a fully matured medium of art, to be anything other than, well, a three-hour piece of Neo-Confederate propaganda that lionises terrorists. It doesn't even have to be explicitly anti-racist, or about how racism is bad, it just has to not be about how great the fucking Klan is.
It's really a shame one of the most significant films in history is Lost Cause propaganda that portraits the Klan as heroes.

How about a film about the Revolutionary War? (By the alt-1910s, there's still probably going to be Lost Cause rhetoric in a few Southern states, so trying to make a major film about the Civil War and its aftermath might not go too well.)



Looking him up, it seems that, IOTL, Within Our Gates is sometimes considered by historians to be Oscar Micheaux's response to The Birth of a Nation. Maybe, even if there is a resurgence in Lost Cause stuff by the 20th century, a movie criticizing it becomes popular?



On that note, we still don't know what exactly is going to happen with Reconstruction. And, what happens with Reconstruction is going to depend a lot on which Presidents oversee it.

IOTL, we had an enabler of Southern revanchism in the form of Andrew Johnson and an enabler of corruption in the form of Ulysses S. Grant overseeing Reconstruction. Having better Republican Presidents in charge of the USA during Reconstruction ITTL will make the Democrats weaker and help Reconstruction succeed.


Also, having better Republican governors of Southern states during the Reconstruction era would help it be more successful. Stuff like the Brooks-Baxter War didn't help Reconstruction at all.
A film about the Revolution is a great idea!

Better Southern Republican leaders is a great challenge, indeed. Some were relatively good, like Brownlow or Ames, others are difficult to qualify, like Holden and Moses. There are bad ones, like Warmoth and Bullock, and then we have people like Alcorn. Altogether, no Southern governor can be called a great statesman, and being merely competent is not enough when you have to face economic collapse and terrorism.

Hey @Red_Galiray, will William Mahone play an important part in Reconstruction?
Yes. I think we need and want recanting Confederates, and Mahone is a good example since he embraced Reconstruction. The challenge lies in distinguishing your Longstreets from your Hamptons, that is, differentiate men who truly embrace the new regimes and those who pretend to embrace it but remain White Supremacists at heart.

I'm enjoying this TL a lot.
I only started reading it recently, and have only got to p139 so far
Good stuff!!!
Well written, good story, well explained history.
I am supposed to be reading a couple of novels - one as a beta reader for an author I enjoy, and I still get pulled back into this, instead.
@Red_Galiray , the fact you're a speaker of a Romance language does occasionally show, but your English is better than any of my other languages, by far!
I really appreciate that you took the time to say this! Thank you!

I'm on p.173, so this may be covered later.

If the number of killed and maimed young white men is as high as suggested, what do the young white women do?

1) more are spinsters and never marry
Sure, but...
2) there's black men around. How many white girls will prefer a colored husband to none at all? Sure, she'd probably have to move to the black settlement, because they couldn't live as a mixed couple in the white settlement...
I'm especially thinking of girls who got pregnant, without a husband. Some may have given their sweetheart a going away present. More may have been raped by raiders from either (or both) sides.
Having a bastard totally ruins your chance for a husband, when the competition is high.
3) carpetbaggers and occupation troops. How many girls will try to pick up a husband who's not only white, but prosperous?

4) if there's enough competition for husbands, do southron women get a reputation for being 'easy'?

5) does Mormonism and polygamy make sudden inroads?
Curiously enough, and according to Eric Foner, the number of biracial couples in the Reconstruction South was higher than expected. Not that they were common, but this "breach of traditional mores that appears more frequently in records of the time than might be imagined". Unfortunately, they were targeted by the Klan.

The greatest effect of this TL on future social media will be that those people who are unsufferably annoying about their irish heritage will be even more common.
Why, tho?

If widows are a much more significant portion of the population, might this translate into a culture where women in general have more autonomy, simply by necessity?

Additional question: how many of those women will travel North in search of more opportunities?

Come to think of it, racial equality would be helped along greatly if in addition to the South getting paraguay'd, white female southerners migrated en-masse to the north in search of work and hopefully a husband. Numbers would be more equal that way.

Edit: now I'm imagining a planters daughter having to work as a nanny or housekeeper to a well-off New York family in Gramercy Park, or maybe a New England family in Newport. I get a little kick out of that, and I'm not sure if I'm supposed to feel bad about that.

Edit edit: actually come to think of it, planters daughters would be highly sought-after as nannies - with the expectation that a woman of her upbringing could be trusted to teach the girls how a lady ought to behave.

Edit edit edit: now I'm imagining bits of the South creeping into the dialect of wealthy northerners because of this phenomenon, as back then above a certain class the nanny (or governess or au pair) basically raised the children.
Southern Governments did take measures that tended towards female liberation. Not always out of feminists concerns, mind you (for example, letting women own property was done to protect yeomen from seizure for debt), but still. So, yeah, I think one of the effects will be more autonomy for Southern women, both black and white.

And yeah, I relish in the image of a Southern aristocrat being forced to work as a nanny, a job she probably has always believed is for Black women only. On the topic of accents, I know Black women had a great effect on Southern accents and food since they basically raised many children. I wonder if that would change?
 
And yeah, I relish in the image of a Southern aristocrat being forced to work as a nanny, a job she probably has always believed is for Black women only. On the topic of accents, I know Black women had a great effect on Southern accents and food since they basically raised many children. I wonder if that would change?
probably not as a great effect but probably still very prominent
 
I forget what thread, but somewhere I postulated the idea of John F Kennedy as an actor in this Blockbuster where he plays Paul Revere in the late 40s. Perhaps Paul Revere's Ride would be even better as the replacement for Birth of a Nation. The action sequences would be very good. It would be a subject people would have learned about in school so moviegoers would be able to read - since movies aren't talkies yet – and know what to expect yet have some good drama included. You could have whole bunches of people marching as red coats being shot at on the way back from Bunker Hill and then later if you didn't want to limit it to the opening days of the revolution as Patriots at Yorktown or something.

As for southern women, how often did women go out alone to the Old West? I'm trying to remember if it happened a lot even in westerns on TV, I think I remember one or two Lone Ranger episodes, though most westerns were a little before my time.
 

Worffan101

Gone Fishin'
What I really love about this timeline is how every single move the rebellion makes only makes their situation worse and encourages pro-civil-rights sentiment in the loyal states. It's the little things like "very slightly different timing" and "slightly different leadup" turns into a massively different result, which makes this timeline IMO a pinnacle of the AH genre.
 
What I really love about this timeline is how every single move the rebellion makes only makes their situation worse and encourages pro-civil-rights sentiment in the loyal states. It's the little things like "very slightly different timing" and "slightly different leadup" turns into a massively different result, which makes this timeline IMO a pinnacle of the AH genre.
Yeah, I second this. I do see that while there are certain significant PODs, there are also multiple small events piling up over time that made the difference.
 
Sometimes preserving the Union League name, sometimes changing it to Equal Rights Association or similar, the Southern Union Leagues of Reconstruction were far more radical in methods and objectives, which is explained by the brutality of their foes.

Even more moderate political organizations, such as the Union veterans’ Grand Army of the Republic, were profoundly influenced by the Union League, which informed their determination to defend the new order by any means necessary.
I mean I'm kind of cheering for them, I almost feel something like this is necessary.
Lincoln himself appealed to their “love for democracy and respect for the Constitution” to try and quiet down overt violence. But Lincoln and other Republican authorities proved unwilling to actually take hard measures against them, because even if their methods were misguided, they agreed with their objectives.
But I'm worried about the horrible precedent of justified political violence for moral aims.
arrested thousands of Chesnut candidates and voters, helping secure the victory of the candidate backed by the administration.

While the President could hardly believe that “one genuine American would, or could be induced to, vote for such a man as Vallandigham”, the threat of Copperhead victory was palpable enough for him to overlook the Union League’s actions and aid in these improper, if not illegal, maneuvers.
Especially this stuff.
such overt racism seemed unpatriotic. Loyal publication societies and local chapters of the Republican party distributed pamphlets contrasting “the gallant colored soldiers of the Miracle at Manchester” with the “cowardly white traitors of the Massacre at Manhattan”. In a brilliant propaganda coup, a Republican speaker in Pennsylvania campaigned with a Black soldier that had lost his leg at Union Mills, yelling “he gave his leg for your liberty! Won’t you give your ballot for his?” “Campaigning with a Negro”, a Republican voter said in awe, “would have been political suicide a mere year ago . . . these are signs of great change.”
Only possible in a time of radical war.
But even as they were defeated, the radicals could see some glimmers of hope, in that the Convention had decreed equal access to the courts and the law system and abolished the apprenticeship system that bound black minors to white adults, without the consent of their parents, as a half-way to preserve slavery.
Kind of wondering, what's the apprenticeship system. I know that today in the USA apprenticeships are maybe viewed as an archaic but beneficial way to learn a trade.
The Convention created a formal political party, the National Confederate Party, pledged to “the defense of the Confederacy till the last man of this generation falls in his tracks, and his children seize his musket and fight our battle”.
Oh Crud.
In this message, a coherent, if not comprehensive, program for the Reconstruction of the Confederacy was articulated for the first time, creating the conditions for a new South when this cruel war is over.
Really looking forward to reading this.
So I finished this university's semester, passing all my classes, and have solved one of the personal issues that had me preocuppied the other month. So I was finally able to write this update! I hope you all enjoy it and sorry for this great delay. Next update is about Reconstruction in the Deep south, so stay tuned!
I absolutely enjoyed it and am looking forward to the next update.
A more aggressive reconstruction may even lead to a communist USA
This isn't really true. Remember the north is not just about abolition for abolitions sake but for the sake of free men and free labor.
 
What does Europe think of all of this? Slaves rising up and demanding their freedom, something that might elicit comparisons to Spartacus or Judah Maccabee, I imagine that from a safe distance away it would seem terribly exciting - almost certainly rather romanticized in The Times and Le Figaro. Is the Manchester Guardian publishing yet?

If any of these black soldiers become famous as individuals then they could do gangbusters touring Europe, being thighly sought-after guests in all the salons in France

Edit: some newspapers perhaps describing it as the greatest call to arms for Christian men since Pope Urban II declared the First Crusade, eliciting European volunteers.
 
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What does Europe think of all of this? Slaves rising up and demanding their freedom, something that might elicit comparisons to Spartacus or Judah Maccabee, I imagine that from a safe distance away it would seem terribly exciting - almost certainly rather romanticized in The Times and Le Figaro. Is the Manchester Guardian publishing yet?

If any of these black soldiers become famous as individuals then they could do gangbusters touring Europe, being thighly sought-after guests in all the salons in France
US Veterans hanging out in France might be a bit problematic in this timeline...at least during the mid to late 1860s considering the whole Mexico situation. And speaking off...

So I've been thinking, and bare me out here. Since Red_Galiray wants to try something with Mexico this one idea might work. If the war ends early enough in TTL, US support of Benito Juarez might be more pronounced, if he plays his cards right maybe even a scheme that results in the capture of a significant number of French officials forcing France to commit to a campaign to rescue them (risky if TTL's government is willing to put it's money where its Monroe Doctrine is) or actually formally negotiate a treaty with the Republicans to distance itself from Maximilian and recognize Juarez and such.

The harder part will be to keeping Maximilian. This Civil War is just too contained for the Franco-Mexican war to be affected by any difference ITTL compared to the OTL. However, Confederates did originally attempt to set up colonies in Mexico under Maximilian. Since Maximilian got abandoned by the retreating French they saw the writing on the wall and headed out to Brazil instead. If there is an early enough exodus of Confederates to Mexico, perhaps some butterflies could work their magic and pull out a rabbit from a magic hat allowing Maximilian to win out at the end. Admittingly, I am not really sure how to work that out. But it's a starting point and if anyone could make it work I guess Red_Galiray could. If Maximilian does show up, and is accompanied by Confederate colonists in mass, it could provoke the more radical US Congress to demand action in Mexico which would pose an even more serious problem for a successful Mexican Empire. Even without that, Maximilian is very widely hated in Mexico and is largely responsible for discrediting the conservatives once and for all. Getting the Mexican people to say "Oh well" is quite the challenge....unless....Spain offers the Moctezumas to France as the Mexican Royal Family. I'm sure the Spanish wouldn't mind and you'd get a Mexican Empire led by a Moctezuma which could rope in the indigenous people and steal Juarez's thunder. It won't be easy and it might need to rely on some unlikely events to make it work but it could be quite interesting. Maybe that's how you get Juarez to make peace, marry one of his kids off to Moctezuma and give him the Premiership making the Prime Minister more of an equal to the Emperor...erm...I mean the Tlatoani.

As for a better Juarez republican experience that relies on less unlikely scenarios/outcomes...in the OTL Mexico City fell on June 3 1863 and if I am correct that's roughly (give or take) where we are at with the timeline right now. Guadalajara will fall seven months later followed by Zacatecas effectively making Juarez's position look tenuous. April 10th 1864 is when Maximilian accepted the crown and he arrived on May. If the US starts sending weapons, guns, and even "volunteers" Juarez could turn things around in TTL before Maximilian arrives. Even defending Guadalajara in a Puebla 1862 type victory might disuade Maximilian from accepting the crown or have him change his mind. No Maximilian, means no Emperor which would force the French to look for another king or to make peace with Juarez and cut its loses. A peace by mid to late 1864 could help Mexico out a little bit, at least cause some butterflies. For example, since Maximilian wouldn't end up taking the throne, the Juarez Doctrine gets butterflied away. Since no European nation would have an emperor to recognize, Mexico wouldn't hit a hard restart with Europe, it could renegotiate treaties and debts with Europe without the decades long delay and diplomatic isolation of the OTL which did make recovery more difficult and tie Mexico closer to the US in the OTL. This could mean a number of different things.

But whatever Red_Galiray does, I believe it'll prove interesting either way, even if he leaves Mexico at to continue as in the OTL at least for the 1860s.
 
US Veterans hanging out in France might be a bit problematic in this timeline...at least during the mid to late 1860s considering the whole Mexico situation. And speaking off...

So I've been thinking, and bare me out here. Since Red_Galiray wants to try something with Mexico this one idea might work. If the war ends early enough in TTL, US support of Benito Juarez might be more pronounced, if he plays his cards right maybe even a scheme that results in the capture of a significant number of French officials forcing France to commit to a campaign to rescue them (risky if TTL's government is willing to put it's money where its Monroe Doctrine is) or actually formally negotiate a treaty with the Republicans to distance itself from Maximilian and recognize Juarez and such.

The harder part will be to keeping Maximilian. This Civil War is just too contained for the Franco-Mexican war to be affected by any difference ITTL compared to the OTL. However, Confederates did originally attempt to set up colonies in Mexico under Maximilian. Since Maximilian got abandoned by the retreating French they saw the writing on the wall and headed out to Brazil instead. If there is an early enough exodus of Confederates to Mexico, perhaps some butterflies could work their magic and pull out a rabbit from a magic hat allowing Maximilian to win out at the end. Admittingly, I am not really sure how to work that out. But it's a starting point and if anyone could make it work I guess Red_Galiray could. If Maximilian does show up, and is accompanied by Confederate colonists in mass, it could provoke the more radical US Congress to demand action in Mexico which would pose an even more serious problem for a successful Mexican Empire. Even without that, Maximilian is very widely hated in Mexico and is largely responsible for discrediting the conservatives once and for all. Getting the Mexican people to say "Oh well" is quite the challenge....unless....Spain offers the Moctezumas to France as the Mexican Royal Family. I'm sure the Spanish wouldn't mind and you'd get a Mexican Empire led by a Moctezuma which could rope in the indigenous people and steal Juarez's thunder. It won't be easy and it might need to rely on some unlikely events to make it work but it could be quite interesting. Maybe that's how you get Juarez to make peace, marry one of his kids off to Moctezuma and give him the Premiership making the Prime Minister more of an equal to the Emperor...erm...I mean the Tlatoani.

As for a better Juarez republican experience that relies on less unlikely scenarios/outcomes...in the OTL Mexico City fell on June 3 1863 and if I am correct that's roughly (give or take) where we are at with the timeline right now. Guadalajara will fall seven months later followed by Zacatecas effectively making Juarez's position look tenuous. April 10th 1864 is when Maximilian accepted the crown and he arrived on May. If the US starts sending weapons, guns, and even "volunteers" Juarez could turn things around in TTL before Maximilian arrives. Even defending Guadalajara in a Puebla 1862 type victory might disuade Maximilian from accepting the crown or have him change his mind. No Maximilian, means no Emperor which would force the French to look for another king or to make peace with Juarez and cut its loses. A peace by mid to late 1864 could help Mexico out a little bit, at least cause some butterflies. For example, since Maximilian wouldn't end up taking the throne, the Juarez Doctrine gets butterflied away. Since no European nation would have an emperor to recognize, Mexico wouldn't hit a hard restart with Europe, it could renegotiate treaties and debts with Europe without the decades long delay and diplomatic isolation of the OTL which did make recovery more difficult and tie Mexico closer to the US in the OTL. This could mean a number of different things.

But whatever Red_Galiray does, I believe it'll prove interesting either way, even if he leaves Mexico at to continue as in the OTL at least for the 1860s.

It's an interesting scenario you present, but it's important to remember that the French intervention in the 1860s was just as much of a foreign intervention as it was a civil war. To say Maximillian had no support would be to go to far in one direction. The French got the legitimacy to plop Max on the throne of Mexico by the power of a superior junta which was led by the losers of OTL's Reform War and come 1863-64 there were still enough Mexicans who felt that the Empire would win in the end that the forces of the Mexican Empire arguably outnumbered those of the Republican Juaristas. Even then, many of Juarez's supporters were other warlords whose loyalty to Juarez was shaky at best, and more than a few did lay down arms when Max arrived in Mexico City simply to be on the winning side. I would also note that Napoleon III never acknowledged the legitimacy of Juarez's government, and only would have done so had Juarez offered to pay all the claims made by France at the Convention of London. Considering most of those claims were ludicrous, there's little chance of that happening!

That said, if the Republic does appear to be in a better position, that would delay the vote that the Junta in Mexico City put out to "poll" the people of Mexico on whether they accepted the empire. This would delay Maximillian's arrival and the declaration of the Second Mexican Empire. If you can delay Max's arrival and leave Mexico ostensibly run by the Junta of French supporting ex-nobles, conservative warlords/landownders and the clergy, it would go a long way to weakening the legitimacy of the Junta and giving Juarez needed breathing space until he can get the weapons and money which tipped the scales in his favor in 1865 OTL.
 
US Veterans hanging out in France might be a bit problematic in this timeline...at least during the mid to late 1860s considering the whole Mexico situation. And speaking off...

So I've been thinking, and bare me out here. Since Red_Galiray wants to try something with Mexico this one idea might work. If the war ends early enough in TTL, US support of Benito Juarez might be more pronounced, if he plays his cards right maybe even a scheme that results in the capture of a significant number of French officials forcing France to commit to a campaign to rescue them (risky if TTL's government is willing to put it's money where its Monroe Doctrine is) or actually formally negotiate a treaty with the Republicans to distance itself from Maximilian and recognize Juarez and such.

The harder part will be to keeping Maximilian. This Civil War is just too contained for the Franco-Mexican war to be affected by any difference ITTL compared to the OTL. However, Confederates did originally attempt to set up colonies in Mexico under Maximilian. Since Maximilian got abandoned by the retreating French they saw the writing on the wall and headed out to Brazil instead. If there is an early enough exodus of Confederates to Mexico, perhaps some butterflies could work their magic and pull out a rabbit from a magic hat allowing Maximilian to win out at the end. Admittingly, I am not really sure how to work that out. But it's a starting point and if anyone could make it work I guess Red_Galiray could. If Maximilian does show up, and is accompanied by Confederate colonists in mass, it could provoke the more radical US Congress to demand action in Mexico which would pose an even more serious problem for a successful Mexican Empire. Even without that, Maximilian is very widely hated in Mexico and is largely responsible for discrediting the conservatives once and for all. Getting the Mexican people to say "Oh well" is quite the challenge....unless....Spain offers the Moctezumas to France as the Mexican Royal Family. I'm sure the Spanish wouldn't mind and you'd get a Mexican Empire led by a Moctezuma which could rope in the indigenous people and steal Juarez's thunder. It won't be easy and it might need to rely on some unlikely events to make it work but it could be quite interesting. Maybe that's how you get Juarez to make peace, marry one of his kids off to Moctezuma and give him the Premiership making the Prime Minister more of an equal to the Emperor...erm...I mean the Tlatoani.

As for a better Juarez republican experience that relies on less unlikely scenarios/outcomes...in the OTL Mexico City fell on June 3 1863 and if I am correct that's roughly (give or take) where we are at with the timeline right now. Guadalajara will fall seven months later followed by Zacatecas effectively making Juarez's position look tenuous. April 10th 1864 is when Maximilian accepted the crown and he arrived on May. If the US starts sending weapons, guns, and even "volunteers" Juarez could turn things around in TTL before Maximilian arrives. Even defending Guadalajara in a Puebla 1862 type victory might disuade Maximilian from accepting the crown or have him change his mind. No Maximilian, means no Emperor which would force the French to look for another king or to make peace with Juarez and cut its loses. A peace by mid to late 1864 could help Mexico out a little bit, at least cause some butterflies. For example, since Maximilian wouldn't end up taking the throne, the Juarez Doctrine gets butterflied away. Since no European nation would have an emperor to recognize, Mexico wouldn't hit a hard restart with Europe, it could renegotiate treaties and debts with Europe without the decades long delay and diplomatic isolation of the OTL which did make recovery more difficult and tie Mexico closer to the US in the OTL. This could mean a number of different things.

But whatever Red_Galiray does, I believe it'll prove interesting either way, even if he leaves Mexico at to continue as in the OTL at least for the 1860s.
What do you mean by Mexico being diplomatically isolated from Europe? While France would obviously be miffed, I can’t really see why Britain would care about the deposition of a French client king. Why did that result in a “hard restart”?

And sorry if I sound a bit aggressive, I didn’t really know how to word it otherwise.
 
There are other issues with using confederates as well, namely that the ones trying to colonize are protestant slavers. The only way max could get them on board is to reintroduce slavery, which goes against his progressive/enlightened leanings and would make him absolutely reviled by most Mexicans who don't want slavery brought back.
 
5) does Mormonism and polygamy make sudden inroads?

5) almost certainly not

This apparently happened in our TL, to an extent. LDS missionaries had some significant success in the former CSA in the greater Mississippi region, specifically among war widows attracted to an out from the "inevitable" insecurity of their position.

Never underestimate the implausibility of OTL.
 
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What do you mean by Mexico being diplomatically isolated from Europe? While France would obviously be miffed, I can’t really see why Britain would care about the deposition of a French client king. Why did that result in a “hard restart”?

And sorry if I sound a bit aggressive, I didn’t really know how to word it otherwise.
It's not a matter of why they would, it's a matter of why they did. Because of European recognition of Maximilian, Juarez declared everything to be null and void. Any debts, treaties, and certifications of diplomatic missions. Considering that the UK put a lot of faith into Maximilian and EU investments were made on that bases, that meant a loss of confidence, a straw that broke the camel's back. The common wisdom was that Mexico is too unstable and too deep into the US orbit to matter anymore. Spain did quickly reestablish relations with Mexico but no one else did in the 1860s, Italy and Germany did when they became a thing and then a French Republic after that. The UK held out until the 1880s if I remember correctly and only reached out because Porfirio Diaz was begging and had the support of British merchants.
It's an interesting scenario you present, but it's important to remember that the French intervention in the 1860s was just as much of a foreign intervention as it was a civil war. To say Maximillian had no support would be to go to far in one direction. The French got the legitimacy to plop Max on the throne of Mexico by the power of a superior junta which was led by the losers of OTL's Reform War and come 1863-64 there were still enough Mexicans who felt that the Empire would win in the end that the forces of the Mexican Empire arguably outnumbered those of the Republican Juaristas. Even then, many of Juarez's supporters were other warlords whose loyalty to Juarez was shaky at best, and more than a few did lay down arms when Max arrived in Mexico City simply to be on the winning side. I would also note that Napoleon III never acknowledged the legitimacy of Juarez's government, and only would have done so had Juarez offered to pay all the claims made by France at the Convention of London. Considering most of those claims were ludicrous, there's little chance of that happening!
You're right in that he had support and Juarez's followers weren't following him simply because of who he was. A lot of the Caudillos/oligarchs who went with Juarez did so ought of self preservation through federalism. Keep in mind that Iturbide was pretty popular and that didn't do him any good.
That said, if the Republic does appear to be in a better position, that would delay the vote that the Junta in Mexico City put out to "poll" the people of Mexico on whether they accepted the empire. This would delay Maximillian's arrival and the declaration of the Second Mexican Empire. If you can delay Max's arrival and leave Mexico ostensibly run by the Junta of French supporting ex-nobles, conservative warlords/landownders and the clergy, it would go a long way to weakening the legitimacy of the Junta and giving Juarez needed breathing space until he can get the weapons and money which tipped the scales in his favor in 1865 OTL.
Having the Junta stay in charge would also breed some interesting potential butterflies. Without a forging ruler being imposed, could conservatism have survived a bit longer?
 
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