Survival of The Tokugawa Shogunate

The Federalist

How and WI the Tokugawa Shogunate survives well into the 20th century? Here are a couple of POD's

1.) Anytime during the original reign of the Shogunate(1608 - 1868), the Shogun abolishes the title of Emperor(which was only a titular title back then).

2.) The Shogunate wins the Boshin War.

3.) The Boshin War ends in stalemate, dividing Japan between the Empire in the mainland and the Republic of Ezo in Hokkaido.

4.) The Alliance between the Choshu and Satsuma is never formed.

What can be the future if these POD's take place? Are these plausible? What could be the effects of a surviving Shogunate or a divided Japan? Any other POD's?
 

Baradas

I brought up a deal with the Republic of Ezo a while back, we pretty much determined that the only way it would survive is as a colony for someone.
 

Tizoc

Hamburger said:
1.) Anytime during the original reign of the Shogunate(1608 - 1868), the Shogun abolishes the title of Emperor(which was only a titular title back then).
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ASB
Hamburger said:
2.) The Shogunate wins the Boshin War.
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For that you need to replace shogun Yoshinobu with someone with a backbone, first.
Hamburger said:
3.) The Boshin War ends in stalemate, dividing Japan between the Empire in the mainland and the Republic of Ezo in Hokkaido.
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You call that a stalemate? Sooner or later Republic of Ezo will be crushed. Hokkaido was to sparsly populated too support forces big enough to defend it from invasion from Honshu...
Hamburger said:
4.) The Alliance between the Choshu and Satsuma is never formed.
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Well. See point 2. You need a cunning shogun or shogun's advisor to get those clans to stay suspicious of each other
Hamburger said:
What can be the future if these POD's take place? Are these plausible? What could be the effects of a surviving Shogunate or a divided Japan? Any other POD's?
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Well, divided Japan could be interesting. But not with only Hokkaido remaining out of imperial control. I think about split through Honshu. Kyushu, Shikoku and western Honshu (including Kyoto and Osaka) under imperial control and Hokkaido and eastern Honshu (inluding Edo/Tokyo and maybe Nagoya) under shogunate control. Each side supported by a different colonial power...
 

The Federalist

Tizoc said:
ASB

For that you need to replace shogun Yoshinobu with someone with a backbone, first.

Well. See point 2. You need a cunning shogun or shogun's advisor to get those clans to stay suspicious of each other
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What if we have someone like that? What happens then?
You call that a stalemate? Sooner or later Republic of Ezo will be crushed. Hokkaido was to sparsly populated too support forces big enough to defend it from invasion from Honshu...
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WI all the people who support the Shogun move in to Hokkaido?

Well, divided Japan could be interesting. But not with only Hokkaido remaining out of imperial control. I think about split through Honshu. Kyushu, Shikoku and western Honshu (including Kyoto and Osaka) under imperial control and Hokkaido and eastern Honshu (inluding Edo/Tokyo and maybe Nagoya) under shogunate control. Each side supported by a different colonial power...
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Can you please post a map?

And I guess France would support the Republic and whoever France's enemy was would support the Empire.

And again, what would be the future of Japan if the Shogunate remains and/or what would be the future of a divided Japan?
 
Hapsburg

Hapsburg

Banned
An idea I had for a map of divided Japan:
dividedjapaned4.png
 
Grey Wolf

Grey Wolf

Donor
The problem with France is what position is it going to be in to continue to defend the North in/after 1870-71 ? Of course, its position could simply be taken over by Russia, which has recent experience of creating protectorates in the cases of Khiva and Bokhara, both of which remained nominally independent

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 

Tony Jones

2.) The Shogunate wins the Boshin War.
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For that you need to replace shogun Yoshinobu with someone with a backbone, first.
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Not sure I agree with that. After all, the Shogunate had an army three times larger than that of the other side. Surely it's not that unreasonable to posit that much of an advantage allowing them to actually win?!
 

Susano

Banned
Hamburger said:
WI all the people who support the Shogun move in to Hokkaido?
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Hwop friggen naive. And who is to support and feed such an exodus?

It is possible though to have the Ezo Republic as a Russian or French vasall/protectorate/colony. How far you could call that "Survival of the Togukawa Shogunate" is another question, though.
 

HueyLong

Banned
@Tizoc: Abolishing the Imperial Family is not ASB. "Reverence for the Emperor" is primarily a Meiji era relic, and not a time-honored Japanese tradition. While they were honored to a degree, it was not enough to count it as even an integral feature of Japanese life, politics or religion.
 

Susano

Banned
HueyLong said:
While they were honored to a degree, it was not enough to count it as even an integral feature of Japanese life, politics or religion.
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Uh, what? That certainly. The Shogunes could have raised Emperors more to their liking, more quiet Emperors etc, but a Japan without Emperors would have been unthinkable.
 

HueyLong

Banned
From a post-Meiji viewpoint, yes. But before that, the Emperor was not worshipped by the populace at large, and removing the Emperor altogether would not be impossible.
 

The Federalist

Susano said:
It is possible though to have the Ezo Republic as a Russian or French vasall/protectorate/colony. How far you could call that "Survival of the Togukawa Shogunate" is another question, though.
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Okay, it could be "Survival of the Tokugawa Shogunate or the Republic of Ezo along with the Empire as the two states that compose the divided nation of Japan".
 
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Susano

Banned
HueyLong said:
From a post-Meiji viewpoint, yes. But before that, the Emperor was not worshipped by the populace at large, and removing the Emperor altogether would not be impossible.
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Even then the Imperial line were seen as descendants of Ameratasu. The... focus may not have been on them so much, but they were still already seen as of divine descent. Besides, you dont just so abolish a central (andeven if only central ceremonially) institution that has been there for millenia!

And, yes, Hamburger it could, just thatone side would be not truely independant.
 

Tizoc

Hapsburg said:
An idea I had for a map of divided Japan:
Click to expand...
Let me guess: you used a blank map of Japan as a basis, right? Problem is that 3/4 of Japan is mountains... and those west of Nagano are called "Japanese Alps" for a reason... and you put borders as if they were plains. I have a bit different proposal for division borders - the pink border is if Shogunate had Nagoya, and blue border if they didn't.

untitled 3.png
 

M79

Yoshinobu avoided civil war because he figured that Japan would become a puppet of the West. If you want the Shogunate to survive, it must be radically altered, perhaps during the rule of shogun Ieyoshi around the late 1830s-mid 1850s. Expand the Dutch Learning and begin modernizing the military to match the cannon casting and other tecnology that Satsuma was playing with and replace the Tempo reforms with more gradual ones towards modernization. Create a somewhat stronger Emperor whose tutors are all Tokugawa vassals and create a moderate dictatorship.
 
Hapsburg

Hapsburg

Banned
Tizoc said:
Let me guess: you used a blank map of Japan as a basis, right?
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The map I used had rivers, which usually form good natural borders, and along which I drew the map's borders. When colourizing it, I deleted the rivers.

Imajin said:
However, the Tokugawa Shogunate did not come to power in a revolution of the masses, and the situations aren't comparable in the least.
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Okay, then. Whatever.
Still doesn't address the point: Why can't you simply abolish the Imperial office?
 

M79

Remember that the office of Shogun derives its authority from the Imperial house and had done so since at least the time of the Minamoto/Kamakura Shogunate. Removing the Emperor would remove the legitimacy from the office, and there were plenty of daimyo with itchings of revolution even in the 1800s. Hideyoshi did not take advantage of tying his house to the office of Shogun officially and his son never inherited the office, Ieyasu did and the Tokugawa *house* ruled Japan for a quarter millenium.
 
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