Until Every Drop of Blood Is Paid: A More Radical American Civil War

[Tomas of Argentina]

Wow finally got myself up to date, this was a pretty interesting TL and truly cant wait to see the shitshow of the post civil gop almost getting to LARP as the PRI before the PRI (atleast until they inevitably splinter) (or maybe not god knows)

 

[DTF955Baseballfan]

Alternatively, when the time comes for Spain to find its new king, either no one accepts or is just plain unacceptable, or there's a deadlock between different candidates that becomes solved when other deputies switch to the Federal Republic out of a wish to just break it or as a "compromise candidate".

Could the guy who didn't like the tricolor be given Spain? Then a very ceremonial king who is an Orleans, takes over in France, the Bourbon guy gets a throne during his life and the Spanish kick the can down the road of what to do for a leader, And the French could theoretically have a king and a President.

I don't know if any country does that now? But the French have had a lot of systems. So why not try it?

 

[Whiteshore]

Sorry if this was answered in the discussion between this being posted and me answering but it's also worth remembering that only around 40% of the British population could vote in general elections in 1914 (i.e. about 4 in 5 of the male population) and Britain had a more restrictive franchise overall than Germany or Austria (albeit not Hungary).

OTOH, Parliament in Britain had more power than the German Reichstag or the Cisleithenian Imperial Council when it came to actually running stuff even if both were elected by universal male suffrage, so there’s that.

 

[usertron2020]

<snip>At that level of detail and research this has just become a Mexico timeline so I'll dismiss the possibility of Juarez dying earlier (1) or analyzing inter-Republican conflicts, intriguing as they may be.

On the other hand, one possibility I feel we are forgetting is that Lincoln and other American Republicans were very in favor of intervening more decisively to aid Juarez. (2) Andrew Johnson, surprisingly enough, proved a dove and opposed any outright intervention. (3) Under Lincoln, we may see American "volunteers" (4) and something akin to lend-lease. (5) We may see a harder and earlier Juarez victory. (6)

1) Good. It's a Bad Idea to change the day Juarez dies when he so obviously died of natural causes.

2) Indeed. AIUI, Lincoln made things abundantly clear to Juarez that once the American Civil War was over (in Union victory) he would do everything in his power to insure Mexico's victory against the Imperial French.

3) Meh. I don't credit Johnson with anything.

4) Language barrier? And any all-Anglo formations will be painted as Yankee Invaders! It's been not so many years since Mexico lost a vast amount of its territory to Yankees. That 75% of the troops in the US Army in the US-Mexican War of 1848 were actually Southerners would be too esoteric for the average Mexican to understand (or accept).

5) At least in THIS timeline Lincoln (rather than the racist Johnson) can be counted on to flood the Mexican Republican Army with all the weapons they need to crush Max and ultimately force out the Imperial French.

6) ITTL I'd expect that Nappy III will probably pull out of Mexico much faster than IOTL.

The one possible pothole capable of upsetting this whole apple cart is what happens between the USA and Canada, vis-a-vis what the British Empire has done in the closing days of the American Civil War. But all this of course is completely in the hands of the OP.

 

[DTF955Baseballfan]

4) Language barrier? And any all-Anglo formations will be painted as Yankee Invaders! It's been not so many years since Mexico lost a vast amount of its territory to Yankees. That 75% of the troops in the US Army in the US-Mexican War of 1848 were actually Southerners would be too esoteric for the average Mexican to understand (or accept).

Even if Kirby Smith is pulling a Pancho Villa and raiding south to support his tag-tag leftovers?

Or is that even possible? I don't know if there are any towns just sound of the Rio Grande or if it's just desert.

 

[AztecFireGod]

This took me a while to put together @Red_Galiray like before please correct me if I got anything wrong

Here are in order:
1854-55 Senate elections
1856 Presidential election
1858-59 House elections
1858-59 Senate elections
1860 Presidential election
1860-61 House elections
1860-61 Senate elections
1862-63 House elections
1862-63 Senate elections

 

[Bellum Se Ipsum Alet]

Now with these charts, I do wonder how much (or likely little?) the six-year itch affects Republican control of both houses of Congress come '66...

 

[Steelers94]

Now with these charts, I do wonder how much (or likely little?) the six-year itch affects Republican control of both houses of Congress come '66...

I mean Red has already there's not going to be any real opposition to the Republicans until the party itself splits.

 

[Evan]

I'm surprised that the '62-'63 House elections didn't have anyone from Tennessee or Louisiana when the '60-'61 elections did. Also surprised at the Senate elections showing a Senator from North Carolina. Are those described somewhere in the text that I forgot about?

 

[Name123]

Random fact yesterday in 1808 Andrew Johnston was born. I was just looking at The Wiki that day, I was surprised to see a familiar name...

 

[Red_Galiray]

This may have certain discussions within the Mexican internal politics over how much Juárez's government is as independent as it proclaims, due to bigger American interventionism in the national affairs of the country (and, as I said before, that was actually the intention OTL: make Mexico part of the US sphere of influence).

Still, I understand your point: this is not a Mexico TL, so such discussions will have to be discussed for later.

Oh pobre Mexico, tan lejos de Dios, tan cerca de los Estados Unidos...

I think that the best option for this would be to have the post-war United States become more successful as a republic. This could boost the popularity of the Federal Democratic Republican Party.

In real life, the 1869 general election was won by Juan Prim's Progressive-Liberal Coalition, which won 236 seats out of 352, while the FDRP only won 85 seats, while the Catholic-Traditionalist Communion (Carlism) won 20.

If the FDRP becomes popular enough to earn more seats, and convince the more radical members of the Coalition to join them instead, they would be able to set up a Republic that could manage to get through the issues that plagued Spain in the Sexenio Democrático - and the US might be interested in cultivating new allies at the other side of the Atlantic, after the United Kingdom and France dallied with supporting the Confederacy.

Alternatively, when the time comes for Spain to find its new king, either no one accepts or is just plain unacceptable, or there's a deadlock between different candidates that becomes solved when other deputies switch to the Federal Republic out of a wish to just break it or as a "compromise candidate".

Something like the second scenario where they simply can't find a king and a slightly more popular Republican faction.

You know, I’ve mused a time or two in regards to the development of the U.S. Navy in the Reconstruction/Post-Reconstruction eras ITTL, particularly in regards to potential effects on development and hull construction, whether any sort of Spanish-American conflict would arise in this world, and what the impact of OTL Southern politicians with significant influence over the USN (like Tillman) possibly not having political careers ITTL would be. Could it be that America winds up with a more robust, “modern” ironclad/pre-dreadnought navy by the 1880s/1890s, compared to the aging collection of Civil War scrap and handful of near-modern ships like the Maine and the Texas that we had going into the Spanish-American War OTL?

I could see it going both ways honestly. Maybe this stronger, more commercial American government will try to expand its navy, or after the expense of Reconstruction and the war it will retreat and still leave the navy in dire straits.

Soon, on the sea...

Robert Smalls: Gunner, see that ship pulling out of that rebel Virginia port?

Gunner: Yes?

Smalls: I don't want to.

But anyways, that was a nice classic Downfall parody. Now I wonder if a drama about the last days of the Junta will be made in TTL.

I certainly think the fall of the Breckinridge government and the last months of the Confederacy under the Junta would make for a thrilling movie!

Wow finally got myself up to date, this was a pretty interesting TL and truly cant wait to see the shitshow of the post civil gop almost getting to LARP as the PRI before the PRI (atleast until they inevitably splinter) (or maybe not god knows)

Thank you Hope you follow the second part about Reconstruction!

1) Good. It's a Bad Idea to change the day Juarez dies when he so obviously died of natural causes.

2) Indeed. AIUI, Lincoln made things abundantly clear to Juarez that once the American Civil War was over (in Union victory) he would do everything in his power to insure Mexico's victory against the Imperial French.

3) Meh. I don't credit Johnson with anything.

4) Language barrier? And any all-Anglo formations will be painted as Yankee Invaders! It's been not so many years since Mexico lost a vast amount of its territory to Yankees. That 75% of the troops in the US Army in the US-Mexican War of 1848 were actually Southerners would be too esoteric for the average Mexican to understand (or accept).

5) We can count on that at least in THIS timeline Lincoln can be counted on to flood the Mexican Republican Army with all the weapons they need to crush Max and ultimately force out the Imperial French.

6) ITTL I'd expect that Nappy III will probably pull out of Mexico much faster than IOTL.

The one possible pothole capable of upsetting this whole apple cart is what happens between the USA and Canada, vis-a-vis what the British Empire has done in the closing days of the American Civil War. But all this of course is all in the hands of the OP.

Yeah maybe outright volunteers would be too much, but the Lincoln administration will be able to bring its full diplomatic and material support to Juarez both due to ideological support and to show that Mexico is the US' backyard. I don't know what to do with Canada either... I mean, the Confederation was partly born due to concerns over the Civil War, yes? So all this should have affected them but I'm afraid I know little about Canadian history.

This took me a while to put together @Red_Galiray like before please correct me if I got anything wrong

Wow! I simply cannot thank you enough for taking the time and effort to do these! I think they are great. Seriously, thanks! The only mistake I can see is that I don't think I ever said that Johnson was Douglas' running mate? Checking the updates I cannot see anything of the sort; in fact, it seems I never even mentioned who was his VP. I think Herschel Johnson would be out of the question giving that the Northern-Southern feud was much more bitter, so maybe James Guthrie? By the way, I detail I adore is that you actually corrected one of my mistakes. In the 1860 update I had Breckinridge in green, when here the Southerners actually took over the Democratic party, so Breckinridge should be the candidate of the regular Democrats and thus be in blue.

Now with these charts, I do wonder how much (or likely little?) the six-year itch affects Republican control of both houses of Congress come '66...

They'll probably suffer some losses. This gigantic majority they have now is owed to special circumstances, and as the opposition rallies and reorganizes they will be able to put a more credible and united challenge.

I mean Red has already there's not going to be any real opposition to the Republicans until the party itself splits.

I meant no real national opposition. We'll probably see local measures of opposition, ranging from Midwestern proto-populists, Eastern financiers, Southern conservatives and reactionaries, etc, all of whom will be able to carry some Congressional seats. All these movements will probably remain disunited until a Republican faction splinters and joins them, coalescing into a new national party - if the Labor faction leaves, they will join the Populists; if the Liberal faction does, they will join the Conservatives.

I'm surprised that the '62-'63 House elections didn't have anyone from Tennessee or Louisiana when the '60-'61 elections did. Also surprised at the Senate elections showing a Senator from North Carolina. Are those described somewhere in the text that I forgot about?

It's because the 1860 elections happened before Tennessee and North Carolina seceded. To be sure, North Carolina seceded earlier ITTL, but after the elections, and Tennessee did so only after the fall of Washington. As for Louisiana, there were meant to be Louisiana representatives, but the Congress refused to certify them until the end of the session out of unconformity with Lincoln's Reconstruction plan.

Random fact yesterday in 1808 Andrew Johnston was born. I was just looking at The Wiki that day, I was surprised to see a familiar name...

Ugh, definitely one of the worst men in US history.

 

[AztecFireGod]

Wow! I simply cannot thank you enough for taking the time and effort to do these! I think they are great. Seriously, thanks! The only mistake I can see is that I don't think I ever said that Johnson was Douglas' running mate? Checking the updates I cannot see anything of the sort; in fact, it seems I never even mentioned who was his VP. I think Herschel Johnson would be out of the question giving that the Northern-Southern feud was much more bitter, so maybe James Guthrie? By the way, I detail I adore is that you actually corrected one of my mistakes. In the 1860 update I had Breckinridge in green, when here the Southerners actually took over the Democratic party, so Breckinridge should be the candidate of the regular Democrats and thus be in blue.

Yeah you didn’t put any running mate for Douglas (and I didn’t see one for Breckinridge or Bell but their otl ones worked so I kept them) I chose Johnson because I knew I needed a strong Unionist southerner who could ally with Douglas, I saw that Johnson was a candidate in the 1860 DNC and thou “Ahh he works” and that’s it. Also worry not I do this wikis for fun

 

[Red_Galiray]

Yeah you didn’t put any running mate for Douglas (and I didn’t see one for Breckinridge or Bell but their otl ones worked so I kept them) I chose Johnson because I knew I needed a strong Unionist southerner who could ally with Douglas, I saw that Johnson was a candidate in the 1860 DNC and thou “Ahh he works” and that’s it. Also worry not I do this wikis for fun

I understand! But I remember considering Johnson but going against it because I knew he'd become an important character later (as he indeed did in the last election).

 

[piratedude]

I could see it going both ways honestly. Maybe this stronger, more commercial American government will try to expand its navy, or after the expense of Reconstruction and the war it will retreat and still leave the navy in dire straits.

You know, I’ve mused a time or two in regards to the development of the U.S. Navy in the Reconstruction/Post-Reconstruction eras ITTL, particularly in regards to potential effects on development and hull construction, whether any sort of Spanish-American conflict would arise in this world, and what the impact of OTL Southern politicians with significant influence over the USN (like Tillman) possibly not having political careers ITTL would be. Could it be that America winds up with a more robust, “modern” ironclad/pre-dreadnought navy by the 1880s/1890s, compared to the aging collection of Civil War scrap and handful of near-modern ships like the Maine and the Texas that we had going into the Spanish-American War OTL?

I think a post-war downsizing is inevitable, but also potentially a good thing, because a lot of technical and strategic changes happen over the back half of the 19th century and no one living through it quite knew how things would eventually pan out to be by the turn of the century. So keeping a small but cutting edge fleet just might keep costs relatively manageable while allaying fears of a sudden attack by Spain or one of the south American countries who buy British vessels

 

[AlexGarcia]

Oh pobre Mexico, tan lejos de Dios, tan cerca de los Estados Unidos...

There was something I had as an idea and it's that a stronger US (as a result of a successful Reconstruction) will enforce Republican and pro-American ideals over Latin America as a whole. A successful Reconstruction means the Deep South is more industrialized as a whole, along with racial equality (in the middle-long run) and no Jim Crow, but also means the US will require more resources for its capitalist development. Some sort of the Rooseveltian (Theodore, not Franklin) imperialism the US experienced OTL, but earlier and more brutal in nature.

 

[Taunay]

There was something I had as an idea and it's that a stronger US (as a result of a successful Reconstruction) will enforce Republican and pro-American ideals over Latin America as a whole. A successful Reconstruction means the Deep South is more industrialized as a whole, along with racial equality (in the middle-long run) and no Jim Crow, but also means the US will require more resources for its capitalist development. Some sort of the Rooseveltian (Theodore, not Franklin) imperialism the US experienced OTL, but earlier and more brutal in nature.

It just shows that not everything is black and white. A successful Reconstruction is very good for African Americans but it can also end up being terrible for Latin America

 

[AztecFireGod]

You know I always wondered. Why were there so many former Whigs in positions of power in the confederacy, especially considering how dominant the Democratic Party had become in the past decade.
I mean:
VP: Whig Alexander Stephens
SoS: Whigs Robert Toombs/Robert M. T. Hunter/Judah P. Benjamin
SoW: Whig Judah P. Benjamin
AG: Whigs Judah P. Benjamin/George Davis
President Pro Tempore of the Senate: Whigs Robert M. T. Hunter/William Graham (Zachary Taylor’s running mate in 1852)
Speaker pro tempore: Whig William Parish Chilton

 

[Universal Century]

I think a post-war downsizing is inevitable, but also potentially a good thing, because a lot of technical and strategic changes happen over the back half of the 19th century and no one living through it quite knew how things would eventually pan out to be by the turn of the century. So keeping a small but cutting edge fleet just might keep costs relatively manageable while allaying fears of a sudden attack by Spain or one of the south American countries who buy British vessels

Hmm, so less overall tonnage but more ships that could reasonably stand up to something built by a European power, if anything like that were to wander into American waters with hostile intent? I could see it, though having to be a two-ocean naval power means that sooner or later, the USN is going to have to expand to some degree.

Honestly, I kind of hope we get some more ships with their main batteries en echelon, before that pattern of construction becomes totally, internationally obsolete. Something about the absurd gun layout of en echelon just fills me with an inexplicable joy.

 

[AztecFireGod]

Here I fixed both the 1860 Election (change Andrew Johnson as Douglas' running mate with James Guthrie) and prevented the Nevada elector from getting stopped by the might of god (aka winter) @Red_Galiray also may I know the senate and house results to make them as well (did the National Union collapsed there as well?, number of seats etc.)

 

[usertron2020]

I could see it going both ways honestly. Maybe this stronger, more commercial American government will try to expand its navy, or after the expense of Reconstruction and the war it will retreat and still leave the navy in dire straits.(1)


Yeah maybe outright volunteers would be too much, but the Lincoln administration will be able to bring its full diplomatic and material support to Juarez both due to ideological support and to show that Mexico is the US' backyard. I don't know what to do with Canada either... I mean, the Confederation was partly born due to concerns over the Civil War, yes? So all this should have affected them but I'm afraid I know little about Canadian history.(2)

1) If the US-Chilean Crisis of 1879 isn't butterflied, US naval rearmament is inevitable. If it IS butterflied, then later German (3) naval trouble-making in Latin America waters will have the same effect.


2) As I posted earlier, politically, Quebec should stand as Canada's best shield against American Imperialism. It is not like the US would be all that sanguine about swallowing up so many millions of native French-speakers. And if 1775 is any guide, I'm afraid the US, in any "revanchist" campaign, could be counted on making a complete pig's breakfast of what would inevitably (IMO) be a very sorry affair.

3) Assuming a united Germany isn't butterflied!