Obviously the pope would support this - since Urban VIII was pretty martial if it came down to it, while Innocent X was a Spaniard who condemned the treaty of Westphalia as "null, void, invalid, iniquitous, unjust, damnable, reprobate, inane, empty of meaning and effect for all times", so most likely one of them will come on board, since IDK if one can make changes to a Bull already issued or if a new Bullam has to be issued superseding the extant one.
Thirty years' war WI: Long-term effects of a Habsburg Victory?
- Thread starter Emperor Constantine
- Start date
Obviously the pope would support this - since Urban VIII was pretty martial if it came down to it, while Innocent X was a Spaniard who condemned the treaty of Westphalia as "null, void, invalid, iniquitous, unjust, damnable, reprobate, inane, empty of meaning and effect for all times", so most likely one of them will come on board, since IDK if one can make changes to a Bull already issued or if a new Bullam has to be issued superseding the extant one.
Would Papal support make it easier or harder to make changes to the HRE's constitution? I can't say if it is possible to change a Bull or not, don't really have enough knowledge of HRE constitutional law. I do think there are a lot of interesting considerations that have to be taken into account.
OK this is what I'm thinking: initially the Swedes do better in the beginning of their war with the Commonwealth, leading Elector Georg Wilhelm to enter on the side of his brother-in-law. However the Polish manage to rally and seize Prussia as a lapsed fief, which is then invested in Sigismund's son Crown Prince Władysław. The Swedish-Polish war ends in yet another stalemate but the Poles keep Prussia, infuriating Berlin and destroying relations between Brandenburg and Sweden. This strengthens the Polish Vasas by giving them hereditary lands out of the control of the Sejm. This also convinces the Elector to ally with the Emperor and to better boost his chances of Imperial backing to get Prussia back, he converts to Catholicism. Of course its not gonna happen, but it does end with Pomerania in its entirely given to Brandenburg, though some of the towns, like Settin and Stralsund, are made imperial free cities to act as bases for the new imperial navy. Not sure if we see a full counter-reformation in Hohenzollern lands or if the situation is like that of later Saxony, the Royal family is Catholic but the state remains Protestant. Is this a possible scenario, unlikely or ASB?
Killing off Buckingham would definitely be a start and your other suggestions for how that situation would evolve seem like a good way of achieving the goal you have set. Without La Rochelle's fall the Hugenots remain a major threat to the French Monarchy and they are left almost completely paralyzed, as they had for the last half-century. I don't think the Huguenots would become English protectorates, more likely they are able to further entrench their hard-won gains from the French Wars of Religion. One consideration you might have here is that by having Richelieu fail in this task, he could end up disgraced and lose a significant amount of his influence on events. I am not sure who would pick up the reins with Richelieu in disgrace, but it is hard to imagine anyone truly being able to do as good of a job.
I don't really know the specifics with regards to the Netherlands either. But having them never quite sally forth would be interesting. If you have Richelieu disgraced from the Anglo-French War then you might also want to consider the effects on the War of Mantuan Succession which he was heavily involved in escalating and which stretched the Spanish resources almost to the breaking point.
At this point I think we could very well end up with an early and significantly cheaper end to the 30YW, a shortened or completely butterflied War of Mantuan Succession, a improved situation in the 80YW for the Spanish, a English victory/lack of French victory in the Anglo-French War, and potentially anything from an Early Northern War to an Early Swedish Deluge or Wars of Polish partition (unlikely to go that far in any case, but might be interesting to see what happens if the PLC is dogpiled by Russia, Sweden, Brandenburg, and the Ottomans). I think this might all be very interesting.
Until the Huguenots can be neutralized I can't see the French entering into an adventurous foreign policy. Maybe against Spain but that would be the only power I can think of. Also, good point about Richelieu. His grip on power was shown to be weak on several occasions (the day of the Dupes being the most obvious one), so failing to repress the Huguenots would likely lead to his dismissal. Not sure who would succeed him, but I'd guess we'd see a return to the rule by council that preceded the Cardinal, at least until a new Chief Minister emerges or until Richelieu claws his way back into favor. Maybe one of Richelieu's ministers? IDK.
The Netherlands is a mess to deal with, but if enough resources could be devoted we could just maybe see Spain reconquer it. I did see that pulled off in the 1632 series but that uses an ASB starting point. But at the least the Spanish should be able to retake Zeelandic Flanders, thus reopening the Scheldt river and reviving the port of Antwerp. That in itself could set the stage for an economic revival in the Southern Netherlands and a downturn in the North. As to Mantua, hard to say. Without the French involvement would the Habsburg partition plan go into effect or would they allow the Duc de Nevers to inherit the Duchies without conflict? I'd guess the former. Hell if the future Charles II of Mantua is killed in childhood, his sister the OTL Empress Eleonora can marry the future Ferrante III, thus neatly unifying the competing claims to Mantua.
Yeah it does sound quite interesting, doesn't it
! I love the idea of a centralizing Holy Roman Empire and a bit of a Catholic wank. Its so unique.True. Its unlikely that the Catholic League would challenge the Emperor directly and risk losing their new gains. And granting exceptions from the Edict of Restitution could be a convenient weapon, like in the case of Saxony. Definitely a good leverage in any event. Now that I look at it, the situation in the HRE strikes me as similar to that of France in the 16th century: the balance between the noble magnates and the Crown is slowly swinging in the later's favor. Its also a bit similar to that of Henry VII of England: the nobles are weakened and the Crown's in a position to establish its dominance. I think we'd likely see the imperial states be forced to dissolve their armies (likely with a ban or limitation on standing forces, so no great Prussian army) and a formal ban on alliances between themselves and with foreign powers, like OTL. Basically it reduces the various states to actual vassals, not semi-independent Princes. I think that's as far as the Emperor could go at this point.
Something else to consider about a Catholic Brandenburg (which I mostly discussed above) is the isolation this causes Saxony. The Saxons would be the last Protestant Elector in the Empire and surrounded by (nominally) Catholic states in all directions. So would we see the Elector Johann Georg also convert or would he dig in and become a remaining bastion of the Protestant cause? Considering his OTL love for switching sides at the drop of a hat, the later might not be likely.
Now that is a VERY interesting idea and one I'd never even thought of. This could be an excellent time to establish a new settlement for the Empire, a combo of the Golden Bull, Imperial reform and the Peace of Augsburg. It would take a full Diet of course, but if the initial ground work is laid out at say the Regensburg congress in 1630 and the Electors are already on board.... hm could be very interesting indeed.
That assumes a restoration of the Palatinate to the Winter King's children, which is highly unlikely in this scenario. Unless of course the Emperor wants to weaken the Bavarians and Friedrich is willing to convert to Catholicism. Then we could see a partial restoration like OTL.
Not so hard. James VI after his Spanish Match for Charles I crashed and burned so spectacularly, was angling for an Austrian archduchess/Spanish infanta for his eldest grandson. Several times during the 30YW the Habsburgs tried to get Prince Rupert onside by attempting to get him to convert to Catholicism. And after the 30YW, both the Winter Queen and Ferdinand III (at different times) attempted to broker a match between an Austrian archduchess (Maria Leopoldina, OTL Holy Roman Empress) and Karl I. So Friedrich might end up married to Cecilia Renata/Maria Eugenia (the archduchess/infanta alive at the time of the marriage negotiations) or Cecilia Renata (who married pretty late OTL)/Maria Leopoldina. And an interesting spanner in the works might be Cecilia Renata marrying Friedrich VI/Karl I, while the Winter Queen's daughter, Elisabeth, marries King Wladyslaw IV of Poland as was originally suggested (Wlad thought a Protestant wife might ease his succession in Sweden over the child Kristina, and talks were dropped thereafter).
What allows the Commonwealth to rally and what stops the Russians from joining Sweden and Brandenburg at this point when the PLC is at its weakest? If you can find a good explanation for those two questions I think the scenario would be plausible. In regards to a full counter-reformation, I think it is highly unlikely when you take into account that for Saxony and Brandenburg to go through with supporting the Emperor, the religious aspect of the conflict has to be minimized as much as possible. The Bohemian revolt was about the usurpation of a throne and general treason against the empire, not a religious rebellion supported by co-religionists against a heretic oppressor. I can see both the Wettins and Hohenzollern converting to Catholicism, but I can't see them ever going through with a counter-reformation, would be far too expensive and dangerous for the rulers.
I think we might see the Queen of France start trying to promote some of her supporters after Richelieu's fall, and I don't think she would allow Richelieu the opportunity to return to grace. Once he falls his numerous enemies would turn on him quickly. You might see Anne of Austria and Louis XIII grow closer once more, with a child born earlier than Louis XIV was. Without Richelieu the rift in their marriage might repair earlier than IOTL. Are there any notable supporters of Anne at this time who could replace Richelieu as Chief Minister? With a weakened and distracted France, could we see the Bourbons capitulate to Habsburg dominance of Europe, promoted by Queen Anne and her favorites? This might allow France some external support against the ascendant Hugenots and might very well end up being viewed as an extension of The Wars of Religion. Another direction for all this might go is that the Hugenots could begin to play a larger role at court as they did at various times during the Wars of Religion. There are so many different layers to the changes all this brings to France that it is hard to get a proper idea of what might happen.
The Netherlands is a mess to deal with, but if enough resources could be devoted we could just maybe see Spain reconquer it. I did see that pulled off in the 1632 series but that uses an ASB starting point. But at the least the Spanish should be able to retake Zeelandic Flanders, thus reopening the Scheldt river and reviving the port of Antwerp. That in itself could set the stage for an economic revival in the Southern Netherlands and a downturn in the North. As to Mantua, hard to say. Without the French involvement would the Habsburg partition plan go into effect or would they allow the Duc de Nevers to inherit the Duchies without conflict? I'd guess the former. Hell if the future Charles II of Mantua is killed in childhood, his sister the OTL Empress Eleonora can marry the future Ferrante III, thus neatly unifying the competing claims to Mantua.
Yeah it does sound quite interesting, doesn't it
I don't think by this point in time that the Netherlands are ever going to be part of Spain again. The Spanish retaking Zeelandic Flanders and reviving Antwerp seems far more plausible and would allow you to work with a more equal split in power between the Northern and Southern Netherlands. I don't think the north would be completely crippled by a reopened Scheldt river, but it seems more likely to me that the two would end up competing actively against each other in trade as well as war.
As for Mantua, I think what you are proposing would work out well. One thing to take into consideration is that Cardinal Mazarin only really moved into the French camp during the negotiations surrounding the War of Mantuan Succession. What I was wondering was: What if Mazarin ends up working for the Habsburgs? Mazarin might be sent into the HRE to support an expansion of the Counter-Reformation and come to the attention of the Habsburgs there. Without the War of Mantuan Succession to bring him into Pope Urban's orbit, he might very well move to support the Habsburgs. Pope Urban was impressed by his martial abilities IOTL, and if you look closely at his leadership of France during the regency and through the creation of the Treaty of Westphalia, Mazarin was a powerhouse of the time. Richelieu is often held up as superior, but Mazarin should be considered a very close second. With Mazarin working for the Habsburgs you get the sort of expertise and ability that is largely lacking among the Imperials (well not lacking, but you don't have any of the powerhouses that the French/Swedes had in Richelieu, Mazarin and Oxenstierna).
By this point in time you could see the Habsburgs sponsoring him for Cardinalship, and an eventual position as Pope (unless I am very far off my mark here, I am not too clear in my knowledge of Papal history). This also leaves the question of changed circumstances for Mazarin's nieces, who could end up married into any number of families further changing up things.
I think your description of the situation is very apt. The Habsburgs have an incredible opportunity to strengthen their grip on the HRE in a way not seen since the Hohenstaufens. I doubt a ban on armed forces would be possible this quickly, but setting limitations on military forces should definately be possible. a ban on alliances with foreign powers should probably also be possible. It is internal leagues/alliances that I think are going to be the most challenging part to achieve and likely not possible right after the Catholic League has proven itself so successful. The centralizing process would probably be a slower process with specific rights having to be chipped away bit-by-bit.
It does bring all sorts of opportunities to mind, doesn't it?
My grasp of the various royal families are a bit spotty, so i am not sure if this is possible, but when you take into consideration all the changes we are making to the TL, do those decisions still make sense? What interest would the Habsburgs have in accomodating the Winter Royals?
Again what makes the Habsburgs WANT to restore the Palatinate to the Winter King or his heirs? Just because the Stuarts wanted a Habsburg-Palatinate match doesn't mean that the Habsburgs wanted one. In this TTL the Emperor has won the war, the rebels and the Danes have been crushed, the Swedes and the French aren't at liberty to intervene and the English have no real influence to use to push for a restoration. Maybe a Catholic Friedrich VI could get the upper Palatinate like his brother did OTL, but it would remain under occupation, wouldn't get a new Electoral title and probably wouldn't get an Archduchess. Though, if Ferdinand II has a daughter or two with his second wife, maybe and I mean maybe, she could be married to the Count Palatine of the Rhine. But still pretty unlikely.
Not sure of the how just yet, I'll have to research it further. Maybe the Imperial intervention in the Swedish-Polish war goes better? IDK. As for the counter-reformation, I agree that Saxony is likely out (as the birthplace of Lutheranism it would take a massive Catholic occupation and colonization to even begin to re-catholicize the Electorate) but am not sold on Brandenburg. The Margraviate had the smallest population of the secular Electorates (around 360,000), so it would be the likeliest to be converted, or at least gain a sizable minority. As to the religious aspect, its still quite minimized. This scenario would have Brandenburg's conversion as a result of losses outside of the Empire and a need to gain the support of the ascending Catholics. More political than religious.
The only way for Anne to have any influence is if she has a son earlier than OTL. Childless Queens can't expect to exercise much patronage or have much importance. As for favorites, hard to say. Anne's long childlessness meant that nobles didn't really rally around her OTL, but she was close to the Marie de Rohan, so her favorites would likely include the Rohan family, Marie's second husband the Duc de Chevreuse and Marie's circle.We might also see some of the high nobility support her if Louis XIII continues to invest power in a single favorite. As for Bourbon capitulation, not likely long-term but possible in the short term, especially if the French really need Habsburg support in dealing with the Huguenots. I think we'd still see a Franco-Spanish war break out, see France try to displace Spanish influence in Italy, continue to support the Dutch and try to get Bavaria to block Habsburg influence in the Empire.
Hell here Bavaria could end up acting as TTL's Sweden, a back door way for the French to challenge the Habsburg supremacy. Could be a way to destroy the Catholic League as well and a way for the Palatinate to get back to the Winter King's heirs. Not entirely sure if that's likely though. At the least they wouldn't get French troops but maybe French money. Also, it could be interesting if the Huguenots could be co-opted into the French government and military.
The Dutch situation is one of the hardest to deal with, at least in my opinion. The better the Spanish do, the more the idea sets in that " hey we've conquered this much, maybe we can take the whole thing!". I have seen a Spanish conquest kind of done once, though I'm reluctant to suggest it. The 1632 series (quite cool books involving a time-traveling American town sent into the middle of Thirty Years' war Germany) has the Dutch fleet destroyed by am Anglo-French-Spanish force and the Spanish land troops behind the main Dutch defenses. Now this is very unlikely to happen without the ASB in 1632, but it is theoretically possible. So for now I'm not willing to completely dismiss it. At the least I think we'd see the Generality Lands be restored to Spain. Could counterbalance potential loses to France, like the County of Artois or the Archbishopric of Cambrai. Something else to consider is a reopened Antwerp could mean the establishment of a Northern Spanish fleet capable of rivaling the English, French, Danish and Dutch fleets, especially if an Imperial navy is also established in the North and Baltic seas.
Funny enough I had also considered a Habsburg Mazarin. We could still have a short Mantuan war, but instead Mazarin sides with the Imperialists over the French/Mantua. Here he becomes Vice-Legate and later Nuncio to someplace in the Empire and enters the service of the Emperor, eventually becoming Chief Minister, probably under Ferdinand III (doubt he would be able to become Pope if he's to closely associated with the Habsburgs: France would veto him). Here Mazarin's nieces are likely to instead marry into the cream of the Habsburg nobility: think families like the Houses of Hohenlohe, Clary und Aldringen, Auersperg, Croÿ, Lobkowicz, Lichnowsky, Dietrichstein and maybe the Thurn und Taxis. They wouldn't be able to marry into the reigning Princely dynasties because they wouldn't be equal matches.
Basically the Holy Roman Empire is being transformed from a medieval federation of feudal hierarchies into a centralizing early modern nation-state. While an outright ban on private armies is unlikely, I think strict limitations are possible, maybe an upwards ban of anything over 5,000 or so for the Electoral states. As to the leagues, I included an idea that has Bavaria, backed by France, try to challenge the Emperor's power and getting stuck down. That would discredit the German League and allow for its dissolution. I also think we could see some new institutions be created, like departments/ministries for taxation, war and foreign affairs. Under different names obviously, but definite emergence of state institutions and bureaucracy. Some taxes would end up either permanent or for life to help support the new institutions and the standing army. Here there is a definitive foreign threat, proved by Denmark and alluded to by France and Sweden.
I'm also considering a more revived role for the Imperial circles, like transforming them into something more in line with Provinces and appointing imperial Governor-Generals/Directors to each. At this point the next thing to consider is Hungary. With the Emperor fully focused on Germany and soon to be ruling an actual Empire, would he cede the Hungarian Crown to a second son or would he keep it in personal union? And what happens if/when the Turks begin to be pushed back? We'd have a Monarchy spanning from the Balkans to the North sea. Clearly such a stage would be next to ungovernable, especially as Hungary would lay entirely outside of the Empire.
Finally, I just got The Thirty Years War: Europe's Tragedy by Peter L. Wilson, which seems to be an excellent source. So I'll probably post more as I delve into it.
Last edited:
I agree with all of this, but I just wanted to reiterate that there really isn't a reason to bring back the Palatinate branch of the Wittelsbach family unless it is to pit them against the Bavarian Wittelsbachs.
What about having the Swedish-Polish War coincide with the Cossack Fedorovych Uprising, and due to Stanislaw Koniecpolski likely being up north fighting the Swedes he isn't able to prevent the uprising from spreading. This gives the Cossacks far greater leverage when they demand expanded registration, which they can then be granted despite the opposition of the polish nobility on the condition they join the war effort. You now have a large, already mobilized Cossack force that is ready to ride to the rescue of the Polish. I honestly don't know too much about the cossacks but I thought that since the uprising coincides with the point in time we have been discussing it might be useful.
What do you think the results and cause of the Swedish-Polish War might be?
I can see your point in regards to Brandenburg, though I think a sizeable minority would be better than a full swap due to the dangers Brandenburg faces if it can't at the very least say that it protects its protestant population when negotiating with various protestant states that it already has strong ties to.
My point about Anne was that Louis and Anne stopped sharing the marriage bed while Richelieu was Chief Minister and his presence was key in them not reconciling before Richelieu died. Once Richelieu died the royal couple were soon reconciled and Louis XIV was born soon after. My thought was that with Richelieu dismissed we could see this reconciliation far earlier and as a result a earlier pregnancy as well. I really don't know enough about the french court at this point in time to be able to understand what sorts of changes are and aren't plausible. What about having Henri II de Montmorency and Gaston d'Orleans (Louis' brother) in addition to Marie de Rohan and her husband become the leading cabal that replaces Richelieu? I am not sure what the results of this group of people cooperating would be but i doubt it would be boring.
What I meant by Bourbon capitulation is that if France loses Richelieu and doesn't gain someone with the same degree of success in centralizing the french state, coupled with resurgent Hugenots and nobility, I don't see how France has a chance of competing with a steadily centralizing HRE and a strong Spain that is seeing gains against the Dutch. What can the French do in this situation? Even if they involved themselves directly, do they have any chance of defeating this powerblock, isn't it already too late?
I think that the Dutch fleet is likely to prevent any amphibious landings and the main Dutch defences are at a point where getting through them is next to impossible. retaking some of the Generality lands and opening the Scheldt would still have them forced to break through the main fortifications which i don't see them being able to do. I think the Spanish ending up with a reopened Antwerp and at least part of the Generality Lands seems like a sensible end result, but the Spanish will likely need many years of besieging the main defenses before they would be willing to talk again. The presence of a northern Spanish fleet would be very worrying for all the northern states of Europe. Would you see Danish or English involvement in the 80YW if the Scheldt was reopened? The Dutch situation is a monster...
There are a lot of people on both the French and Imperial side who got their first military action or claim to fame in the Mantuan War, so a shorter war where that remains possible might be interesting. I agree with your statement of him likely never becoming Pope. Do you have any plans for Wallenstein by this point?
I think you might be able to use the ban on private armies as a starting point for a conflict between the League, backed by France, and the Emperor. I just think that we need to be very clear on the motivations of all the actors involved before having Bavaria turn on the Emperor. Bavaria is now the second largest power in the Empire and has the backing of a significant portion of the Empire in the form of the Catholic League as well. How much would it take to have the remaining German states join the League efforts if they know that they are about to be deprived of their only protection? I think maybe a more scaled ban would be more acceptable, so Bavaria retains a rather large army while the smaller states have army size limited significantly. What happens with the electoral title that the Winter King had? Is it just left in abeyance or is it given to the Bavarian Wittelbachs as they had wanted.
Europe's Tragedy is really good, and is one of the few more modern examinations of the Thirty Years' War. It is also one of the key sources in the Podcast I mentioned. The Podcast also includes a number of other books which are also rather relevant, there is a full list of the sources used at the bottom of the linked page if you are interested: https://wdfpodcast.blogspot.dk/2014/06/wdf-end-of-thirty-years-war.html
The policies of Wladyslaw IV toying with Cossacks did upset the nobility greatly. And with his OTL successor all these "expanded registration" plans go to hell, and we're back to OTL Deluge.
Making his son survive appendicitis/food poisoning may aleviate this a bit, but he died a child and we're not sure how his political views will form.
Errr. I'm not sure I understood you. Louis XIV is born in 1638, Richelieu died when the Dauphin was 4.
Damn, was sure I had read that differently, but I see I was wrong.
My idea was to have Anne conceive earlier, in the wake of Richelieu's disgrace, thereby strengthening the faction around Anne.
Just an idea here...with the Protestants heavily defeated in Germany there would definitely be a lot of refugees. Where would they go? Netherlands, Denmark, England? Surely some of them would move to America and change the situation in the colonies.
And it has been said Richelieu was guilty for the First World War. His actions tore Germany apart and it all resulted in a much later forming of a German Empire and its attempts to expand that was one of the causes for the WWI. Without him Germany could end up united by the Habsburgs much sooner and turned into a first true superpower.
And it has been said Richelieu was guilty for the First World War. His actions tore Germany apart and it all resulted in a much later forming of a German Empire and its attempts to expand that was one of the causes for the WWI. Without him Germany could end up united by the Habsburgs much sooner and turned into a first true superpower.
There was a pregnancy in 1632, derailed by freak accident. Maybe this child carried to term?
True that. I had actually thought of a scenario involving this, though not sure if I would want to go down that route. It would have the Bavarians revolt against the Emperor somehow (not sure how yet, maybe Maximilian tries his hand for the Imperial crown?) and lose. As punishment they lose the Lower Palatinate and the Electoral status, which is either restored to the Palatinate-Simmern or possibly given to the next in line, the Palatinate-Neuburg (OTL they inherited the Palatinate after Elector Karl II died childless). The Upper Palatinate would be directly annexed by the Habsburgs. Again not entirely sure about this idea.
Hm, different yet quite interesting idea. It not only gives the Polish army a fighting chance against the Swedish but also strengthens the Polish Crown vis-a-vis the (awful and shortsighted) Szlachta. I wonder if we could see the beginnings of a centralized Commonwealth and the weakening of the Nobility? Not sure but its interesting non-the-less. Of course the issue is the King: we're not dealing with Władysław IV Vasa but his father Sigismund III. Not sure if he would give the Cossacks what they want or no.
As to results, it really depends. Sigismund wasted his opportunities in the 1626-29 war by solely trying to regain the Swedish crown. If he's convinced to push the advantage, I think we'd see Poland retain Livonia and the port of Riga. We could also see Ducal Prussia taken by the Vasas as a hereditary province (something Władysław planned later in OTL), if they can drive the Swedes out. After all, the King would have a strong legal position over the Duchy's more or less defection to the Swedes against its liege-lord. Definitely gives the Polish Royal family a distinct advantage in dealing with the Nobility: a territory outside of the Szlachta's power and influence.
That's a bit of an oversimplification. Blaming Richelieu as the only cause of the Royal couple's issues I mean. The King and Queen definitely had issues and Richelieu was one of them, but not the only one. Richelieu came to power in 1624 but Anne continued to have pregnancies until 1631, when relations seemed to collapse with the King until 1638, judging by the lack of pregnancies at least. Just as likely a cause would be the deteriorating relations between France and Anne's Habsburg relatives. I'd say the easiest solution would be to have some of Anne's earlier pregnancies go to term.
As to the new cabal, I like Montmorency as part of it but the Duc d'Orleans is highly unlikely. He constantly plotted against his brother and nephew for over twenty years. Gaston had no issue with the idea of murdering his own brother to become King or potentially causing the Kingdom irreparable damage to get the crown. In my opinion there's no chance of anyone giving Gaston power willingly. But I do see your point on the French vs the Habsburgs. For the time being the Bourbons would focus on domestic issues, with a plan to disrupt the Habsburgs whenever they can. The Netherlands and maybe the Pyrenees regions are likely targets for expansion later on. I can see them later gaining some of the territories won at the Treaty of the Pyrenees, but less in the Netherlands than OTL.
The idea would have the Dutch navy destroyed but I see your point. Maybe a joint Anglo-Spanish fleet attacks the Dutch? Hmm.... I'll have to think about it. As to Danish or English involvement, hard to say. The Dutch weren't in a position to do anything after their loss in the Thirty years' war and the English would depend on whether or not Parliament would vote the necessary funds. Though a victory over France might make Parliament more amenable to an adventurous foreign policy.
Not necessarily. Most small estates are likely to look to the Emperor rather for protection, not the large states. Most couldn't afford to maintain their own armies and instead contributed to the Army of the Empire. But part of the reason the Catholic League had to be dissolved was because the Protestant union was being dissolved. Because of the attempts to keep the legal aspect equal, you have to ban armed unions in general, not just the Protestant union. That would cause more issues than it would help. Plus as far as I can tell Maximilian didn't seem to lodge any objections to the League's dissolution, so he might not object here either. I think we'd still see limitations either way. Something else to consider is can Bavaria pay for a major army in peacetime? The Emperor's in a position to extract concessions from the estates for more and perpetual taxes, but Bavaria can't call on Empire-wide resources. So either way their army is going to be reduced.
As to the Electoral Palatinate title, hard to say. Bavaria got it permanently in 1623, in spite of objections from other Electors and Princes. Chances are that still happens, unless Bavaria revolts then I can't see Munich being able to keep that dignity.
Thanks! I'll have to check it out.
So do you think an early Cossack revolt and deal could work in this scenario?
Hard to say. To the New world, where exactly would they go? England and the Netherlands were just establishing their colonies at this point: most of the Americas are Iberian. More likely they flee to the Netherlands, England, some of the northern German states, Sweden and possibly even France (the Huguenot territory would be a theoretically safe refuge). I do wonder though how the German Empire would affect things internationally. Imperial colonies? Trade with Asia and Africa? A shift in power towards the Empire instead of Spain? At this point the possibilities are wide open.
I think you mean 1622. It was the 1622 pregnancy that ended when Anne on a staircase and suffered a miscarriage.
Sigismund was willing to register Cossacks whenever it fit his purposes, which in this case it does. Furthermore with the threat posed by Sweden probably drawing away many of the skilled PLC military leaders control of the Cossack lands are hard to achieve. This is before the repression of the Cossacks really got going, which should give you a window in which you can change the relations between the Cossacks and the Vasa kings. Since we are talking about an attempt to marginalize the Szlachta, gaining the support of the Cossacks, or at the very least setting them up as a counter-point to the Szlachta would create an opportunity which Sigismund and Wladyslaw could exploit.
I think we need to be careful of having the Swedes lose completely, The Truce of Altmark ensured that Sweden gained control of Prussia's coastal cities and the shipping tolls on 2/3 of all goods moving into the PLC from Danzig, Elbing and the Prussian cities. I think we need to determine the exact year for a conflict of this sort. Is it at the end of the truce, which expired in 1635, is it before? after? If it is before, then why are they breaking the truce? What do they stand to gain.
I could see the Vasas taking Ducal Prussia after pushing out most of the Swedish forces once the conflict starts, but what about having the Swedes trade Prussia, while retaining some sort of claim on part of the tolls, for Polish Livonia, including Riga and Daugvapils. This gives Sweden all of Livonia, which would damage the Lithuanian nobility's power and influence, which giving Prussia to the Vasa Kings of the PLC where they can then draw their power from. We need to keep in mind that most of these wars rarely had a completely clear winner one way or the other and often ended up settling things through treaties and truces.
I think having a pregnancy work out in the late 1620s is probably the simplest solution and gives you plenty of potential for drama. Who else might fit in this new cabal besides Montmorency? What about Claude Duc de Chevreuse and Henri, Prince de Condé?
Who would the Huguenots at court be? Henri Duc de Rohan and his family?
I just don't see what the English stand to gain from attacking the Dutch at this point, considering the family ties between the English royal family and the Orange family. In addition, at this point any losses to the Dutch would be directly detrimental to the English. I simply don't understand the reasoning for an Anglo-Spanish fleet.
Good point, that would seem to be the likely result. If France has to take time with internal troubles would that give the Habsburgs enough time to draw together the constituent parts of the HRE? I think they would exert significant efforts to bind Bavaria to their already complex web of familial ties, even more than they did in OTL. How long before the Bavarian Wittelsbachs are basically another branch on the Habsburg tree?
The ducs de Rohan, the de la Trémoïlles, and the de la Tour d'Auvergnes are in the top drawer - they've also all got ties to the Dutch royal family and several key families in England (the Stanleys) and Germany (Hesse-Kassel).
OK. Apparently Poland was able to field around 85,000 men in the 1621 campaign (45,000 Polish-Lithuanians and 40,000 Cossacks) so that gives further credence to a TTL registration agreement taking shape. So basically the Cossacks will be a combination standing army/trained militia loyal to the Vasa dynasty and a potential weapon the Crown can wield against the Polish nobility. As to when, I think the 1626-29 war is the best best. It was the only one in the timeframe to shift towards Prussia as a main battlefield and thus the best chance to secure the Duchy. And I like the idea of a tradeoff at Altmark:Livonia for Prussia. It weakens (and infuriates) the Lithuanian nobility while strengthening the Vasas. We'll probably also see a re-catholicization campaign begin in Prussia as well, though not sure if it would be successful or not.
I think that we could also see an attempt by the Polish to retake Livonia after the Truce expires or once Sweden is weakened. If the Vasas are stronger internally we could see, in the event of a reconquest, Livonia become another direct holding of the dynasty like Prussia. Or perhaps invested to a second son (Jan Kazimierz or Jan Albert).
While I'm still up in the air about a specific birth date, I think Chevreuse, Condé and the Duc de Guise would play major roles but I'm unsure about Rohan. I think he'd be held at arms length due to leading the Huguenots in revolt. More likely the Rohan-Montbazons, as the family of the Duchesse de Chevreuse, would be more influential.
England had no ties to the Dutch in the 1620s: Mary, Princess Royal didn't marry the Hereditary Prince of Orange until 1640/41, when the Stuarts were desperate for foreign allies against Parliament. Remember that England was very interested in an alliance with Spain: look at the Spanish Match and the later attempt to marry the Princess Royal to Baltasar Carlos, Prince of Asturias. And I'm not saying such an alliance is likely, only possible. I mean OTL Charles II schemed with Louis XIV to partition the Republic, with England getting some key ports and some lands. So its not impossible to think that such a scenario might interest Charles I.
Hard to say about Bavaria.The Wittelsbach and Lorraine dynasties were at this point the only prominent Catholic families in the Empire besides the Habsburgs. So in theory Bavaria could remain a significant counter-wait to the Habsburgs but here there's a probability that some of the Princes will convert back to Catholicism, weakening the Bavarians unique position. Place some of the resitructions we talked about and the Bavarian House is likely to be reduced to a position not unlike Brandenburg and Saxony (a prominent dynasty but no threat to Habsburg rule).
What Dutch Royal family
? The Netherlands was a republic until 1804/1814. I assume you mean the House of Orange though.I don't have all that much to add, I basically agree with all of the points you made.
Really find the who discussion very interesting.
Without dropping pretentions to the Swedish throne, the Sejm would be wary of investing Vasas on Baltic coastal duchies, because they would be afraid of them pulling the Commonwealt in yet another costly war with Swedes.
I'd imagine that by the mid-late 1630s we'd see the Vasas accept the righting on the wall and formally drop their Swedish claims, thus negating the Sejm's fears. Plus, did the Crown need permission to invest someone with a duchy? I mean I didn't see that the Sejm played a real role in the creation and investiture of the Duchy of Prussia OTL, so not sure if their support/endorsement was necessary or not.
That was 100 years before, and Jagiellons position was stronger then (though I have no idea if Sejm or Senate played any role in the creation of the Duchy)
Precedent is precedent. The King would be able to claim previous rights to invest a duchy as a fief to anyone, even a relative. Legally he would be in the right, though it would obviously cause a massive fit from the nobility. Of course, with the Cossacks allied with the crown, the Sejm might think twice about doing all that much.