Of lost monkeys and broken vehicles

[Khan Doomy]

The Soviets can easily give up Biga to make sure the Asiatic side of the straits stays out of Greek control. Again think this not from a Greek perspective. With Greece solidly in control of the Aegean, with a naval base at Mudros and Souda any Soviet Control of the Asiatic part of the Straits is not an issue. The Soviets will push for control of Anatolia for another reason. If they have a secure logistic linking Antalya or Mersin to Erzurum or Sinope they can be more secure that if something happens to close of the Marmara to them, they have a back up route. The Soviet grand strategy thus can be seen serving one goal "no interruption of their access to the Mediterranean). This of course will have consequences of the fate of Cyprus. The Soviets have thus several tools. Give up the claim to Biga (given to them by the Wallies) and tolerate a European side of the straits outside their hands in return for a demilitarized Cyprus and de-factor control of Central Anatolia. This means among other things that the Konya-Eskisehir-Izmit railway must not be given to Greek control.

You can glimpse thus the compromise. Greece gets de-facto the European side of the City (what people anyway call Constantinople in this era), internationalization of the Straits (ala Rhine Commision with a membership that will give the Soviets the upper hand in the institution-Greece, Bulgaria, Romania, Ukraine (remember Ukraine was a "independent" member of the UN, USSR , Turkey ),and a demilitarized Cyprus, in return for keeping the Asiatic side outside Wally control and gaining more influence in Anatolia, keeping the crucial railways, and special trade and transit rights to Med and Black sea ports. The de-jure forms can and will vary, but the de-facto reality will be this. This also means the Soviets will not consent to a divided Turkey. They want all of Anatolia in their sphere of influence (ala Finland) as any division will likely mean losing the Konya-Eskisehir-Izmit railway. The hard rality is the Soviets have things to give up to get what they want. The Greeks do not (beyond exorbitant claims on Bulgaria).

My expectation? Greece gets Cyprus, perhaps demilitarized in certain aspects, European Constantinople becomes a International City with Greek preponderant influence in local goverment, the Straits become demilitarized and internationalized with a Straits Commission as a sub-organization of the UN, where the USSR can outvote Greece, Greece gains territory in Anatolia but not the railway, and the Soviets gain trade-transit and naval presence rights in Anatolian Turkey. They do not Sovietize but you get a Finlandization type result under an Ismet Ismirli Presidency. The Wallies probably prefer this as well. Greece gets stuff , not all it wants but enough that it is securely pro-West, the Turks get to keep their country in one piece and a powerful patron, and the Soviets get a secure logistic line to the Med. To paraphrase a term popular nowadays in the region of the world "win win for everyone".

The Asiatic side of Constantinople will be called Istanbul. Though I expect Izmit to actually grow more than Kadikoy (Khalkidona) or Uskudar(Scutari) due to the port.

 

[Khan Doomy]

The muslim population of the European Side of Constantinople will be moved to Izmit. I expect the Soviets to seek to develop Antalya as bigger port than OTL , and same with Sinope.

 

[Khan Doomy]

And Dragoumis is a romantic. Think about it. They will promise him the dream. A Patriarch enthroned in Aya Sofia in the presence of the President and Prime Minister of the Greek Republic. Aya Sofia a church with no ifs or buts, the restoration of the Patriachate's prestige and churches. The City holds a mystical power (some would say a curse), and Dragoumis might be willing to compromise on a lot to just get that liturgy. The Prestige will be massive and key if he decides to stand up to the Venizelist army domestically. There is a reason @Lascaris reminds us all the time that this is the Venizelist army of 1920. That was a political army, and many of its high command, above all Pangalos have political ambitions. The next years in Greece will see a Pangalo vs. Dragoumis political showdown. Having the prestige as the Prime Minister who was present in the enthronement of a Patriarch in Aghia Sofia for the first time in a millenia is a powerful domestic political tool. My guess is Pangalos will attack the compromises and build his political career on that.

 

[Khan Doomy]

I can see it. Pangalos resigning his command of the army after the final peace treaty, citing his opposition to any compromises, accusing Dragoumis of being to accommodating to the Soviets and the Turks (think of the propaganda war: was not Dragoumis part of the Constantinople Group with Souliotes, that sought accommodation with the Ottomans, was he not an Anti-Venizelist and pro-Royalist, had he not flirted with Marxism, is he not in coalition with Communists, does he not tolerate Ares Makedon etc). Pangalos the Architect of Victory vs. Dragoumis the Prime Minister that gave Romiosyni back their Church.

 

[Gokbay]

This is the sort of 50/50 split Churchill was thinking about right? Right?

Pretty sure he meant political/diplomatic influence/political leaning rather than geopolitical division.

 

[Xenophonte]

About, an eventual Soviet 'Bosphorian Kaliningrad', perhaps, rather than a permanent territorial cession, it would be possible that the Asian side, of the Queen of the cities while still under Soviet control, that it wouldn't be as a de jure part of the S. Union. But rather only a Soviet Military administered as part of a wider UN international Marmara region, with a status more or less equivalent to the OTL Tangier Internationally zone but adapted to this TTL situation...

 

[Khan Doomy]

The 50/50 thing will go the way of all 50/50 things. The USSR will gain dominant influence in Anatolian Turkey. It has strong and rational strategic reasons to want this. The 50/50 might translate to a Finland style presidential system. The West will be permitted some influence and maybe support for a minor party, but the unwritten rule will be that those parties will never govern and will never elect a President/Prime Minister (depending on the fate of the Sultanate). Trade wise and strategic wise Turkey will be in the Soviet sphere of influence. Whether that leads to an attempt at sovietization will depend on other factors. The USSR supported a monarchy in Afghanistan for most of the Cold War. Imho the Soviets will care less about having influence in the European part of the City, and more about a) keeping the straits demilitarized b) keeping the Asiatic side out of Wallie control. Of course they will not say no to a voice, but the goal will probably be to minimize the condominium and lock in a statue of the straits as an open trade region for them. They will sacrifice symbolic gains for substantive ones.

 

[Quinkana]

The muslim population of the European Side of Constantinople will be moved to Izmit. I expect the Soviets to seek to develop Antalya as bigger port than OTL , and same with Sinope.

tbf I could see the Asiatic Marmara region be wholly Russian while the Turks get pushed out. Like the whole thing would be annexed into the Russian SSR itself, not just Asiatic Constantinople like how half of Prussia was taken by the Russian SSR in otl to ensure control over the Marmara straits. idk if Izmit would be part of Turkey of the Russian SSR.

tbf I could see sentiments that Turkey caused the world wars to be quite prominent too, and the want to have a permanent solution for it all could allow for extreme measures to be taken.

And Dragoumis is a romantic. Think about it. They will promise him the dream. A Patriarch enthroned in Aya Sofia in the presence of the President and Prime Minister of the Greek Republic. Aya Sofia a church with no ifs or buts, the restoration of the Patriachate's prestige and churches. The City holds a mystical power (some would say a curse), and Dragoumis might be willing to compromise on a lot to just get that liturgy. The Prestige will be massive and key if he decides to stand up to the Venizelist army domestically. There is a reason @Lascaris reminds us all the time that this is the Venizelist army of 1920. That was a political army, and many of its high command, above all Pangalos have political ambitions. The next years in Greece will see a Pangalo vs. Dragoumis political showdown. Having the prestige as the Prime Minister who was present in the enthronement of a Patriarch in Aghia Sofia for the first time in a millenia is a powerful domestic political tool. My guess is Pangalos will attack the compromises and build his political career on that.

hmm that is very possible, and I think it's defo something that will happen ittl.

I wonder if Pangalos getting anywhere beyond mp would be good tho, considering his military career.

About, an eventual Soviet 'Bosphorian Kaliningrad', perhaps, rather than a permanent territorial cession, it would be possible that the Asian side, of the Queen of the cities while still under Soviet control, that it wouldn't be as a de jure part of the S. Union. But rather only a Soviet Military administered as part of a wider UN international Marmara region, with a status more or less equivalent to the OTL Tangier Internationally zone but adapted to this TTL situation...

tbf I think Stalin would want it to be part of the Russian SSR, which may very well be possible.

 

[Vaeius]

Pretty sure he meant political/diplomatic influence/political leaning rather than geopolitical division.

I was joking in case that wasn't clear.

But rather only a Soviet Military administered part of a widerUN international Marmara region, with a status more or less equivalent to the OTL Tangier Internationally zone but adapted to this TTL situation...

I could definitely see that, but I would imagine that Soviet 'influence' would make itself rather heavily known eventually in one form or another. Perhaps as such a thing coalesces and the Cold War intensifies Greek control over the western half solidifies.

You can glimpse thus the compromise. Greece gets de-facto the European side of the City (what people anyway call Constantinople in this era), internationalization of the Straits (ala Rhine Commision with a membership that will give the Soviets the upper hand in the institution-Greece, Bulgaria, Romania, Ukraine (remember Ukraine was a "independent" member of the UN, USSR , Turkey ),and a demilitarized Cyprus, in return for keeping the Asiatic side outside Wally control and gaining more influence in Anatolia, keeping the crucial railways, and special trade and transit rights to Med and Black sea ports. The de-jure forms can and will vary, but the de-facto reality will be this. This also means the Soviets will not consent to a divided Turkey. They want all of Anatolia in their sphere of influence (ala Finland) as any division will likely mean losing the Konya-Eskisehir-Izmit railway. The hard rality is the Soviets have things to give up to get what they want. The Greeks do not (beyond exorbitant claims on Bulgaria).

The 50/50 thing will go the way of all 50/50 things. The USSR will gain dominant influence in Anatolian Turkey. It has strong and rational strategic reasons to want this. The 50/50 might translate to a Finland style presidential system. The West will be permitted some influence and maybe support for a minor party, but the unwritten rule will be that those parties will never govern and will never elect a President/Prime Minister (depending on the fate of the Sultanate). Trade wise and strategic wise Turkey will be in the Soviet sphere of influence. Whether that leads to an attempt at sovietization will depend on other factors. The USSR supported a monarchy in Afghanistan for most of the Cold War. Imho the Soviets will care less about having influence in the European part of the City, and more about a) keeping the straits demilitarized b) keeping the Asiatic side out of Wallie control. Of course they will not say no to a voice, but the goal will probably be to minimize the condominium and lock in a statue of the straits as an open trade region for them. They will sacrifice symbolic gains for substantive ones.

This is definitely a plausible outcome, I don't think the former-axis states would get seats on such a straits institution immediately, though such a thing might get revisited once the cold-war battle lines are firmly established. And I could definitely see that being Stalin's calculus but that might very well back fire on him in the long run if Turkey doesn't act rationally or the way he thinks it will. They might hate Greece more than the Soviets, but they'll have plenty of anger to go around after the war, especially if Stalin expands his own empire as he is currently poised to in the Georgian/Laz and Armenian SSRs'.

That all said I do still wonder what the Soviets would be willing to give up to make this all happen, their position here is strong but it is also less than in otl, maybe Romania or the Czechs manage to slip the net? I do still think we might see western armies push farther east here, perhaps not as far as Poland but maybe Germany manages to retain Pomerania either as a reduced east Germany or, as was at one point considered, a strictly neutral united German state.

I tweaked a few things here to resemble some reasonable compromises; Greece gets Bursa, plus a few more defensive bits off of Bulgaria, and some middle-eastern bits are tweaked in Kurdistan's favor.

 

[TickTock The Witch's Dead]

tbf I think anything beyond bursa would be stretching it for the US.

Depends on who’s owning the land. But I imagine Greece will try to persuade the US very hard to let them have it.

“Trust us we hate communists. These lands will be in safe hands.”

 

[Khan Doomy]

Bursa itself is not worth much strategically. Instead the Greek goal would logically be this red line: It is defensible, it leaves the important to Soviet railines outside there hands, but places them in a hostage situation on the Greek border.

 

[Whiteshore]

Assuming that Turkey is divided akin to Germany and Korea IOTL with Sivas in Red Turkey, where would "Free Turkey" be setting up its capital? Konya would be a good first call, especially with how it is a fairly sizable city and all that.

 

[Quinkana]

Bursa itself is not worth much strategically. Instead the Greek goal would logically be this red line: It is defensible, it leaves the important to Soviet railines outside there hands, but places them in a hostage situation on the Greek border.

Tbf I think if the Greeks take Bursa it'd be because it is a good place to put a forward base there in case of war.

Assuming that Turkey is divided akin to Germany and Korea IOTL with Sivas in Red Turkey, where would "Free Turkey" be setting up its capital? Konya would be a good first call, especially with how it is a fairly sizable city and all that.

Konya makes a lot of sense, but Adana is also good as the Cilician Armenians won't be moved back. Adana is an really large city that no one wants to take (it could be the case that Britain's occupation zone's capital is Adana and the US' zone is in Konya).

 

[TickTock The Witch's Dead]

At the Asian side of the straits I imagine Greece will demand everything up to the mountains as to provide a defensible position. So that’ll probably mean they take Bursa.

 

[Khan Doomy]

At the Asian side of the straits I imagine Greece will demand everything up to the mountains as to provide a defensible position. So that’ll probably mean they take Bursa.

The Greeks are not getting the Asian side of the straits.
Let us consider what taking both sides of the straits require. 1) land offensives against both sides of the straits plus naval violation of the Straits and Wally control of the Sea of Marmara, or 2) land offensive against the European side plus naval violation of the Straits and Wally control of the Sea of Marmara. Neither of this is attained quickly or easily.

 

[TickTock The Witch's Dead]

The Greeks are not getting the Asian side of the straits.
Let us consider what taking both sides of the straits require. 1) land offensives against both sides of the straits plus naval violation of the Straits and Wally control of the Sea of Marmara, or 2) land offensive against the European side plus naval violation of the Straits and Wally control of the Sea of Marmara. Neither of this is attained quickly or easily.

I suppose that depends on how the WAllies take the region and/or whether Greece can easily convince them to hand it over regardless of what happens next.

 

[Khan Doomy]

You would need to persuade the Wallies and hide from the Soviets sending the bulk of the army of Asia Minor north rather than east. I am not sure that is doable. If you want to be really mean, let the Greeks do this, Stalin does not put any pressure on the Turks, and parts of the Turkish Central Anatolian Army strike the Greek Army of Asia Minor from its flanks as it is pinned with its back to the sea.

 

[Quinkana]

Tbf I'm pretty sure the Greeks can cut off the Turks between the Eastern side of the straits and the rest of Anatolia and take it all, and the Soviets could do nothing about it.

I do think the Greeks would've done the calculations and thought that it isn't worth it tho.

 

[goumaister]

Wouldn't though a demilitarization of the Sea of Marmara and a Soviet Asiatic Constantinople fix the Soviet fears as no warships from WAllies would be allowed and even limited Greek ones and with a presence in the Bosporus no one can pass without their permission? Biga is a thorn in the Greek side cause it allows Turkish presence in the Aegean that the Greek government wouldn't find acceptable. So more than likely even though Biga is a majority Turkish area it needs to be incorporated or on the other hand it needs to be demilitarized.

 

[Spatharios]

I can see it. Pangalos resigning his command of the army after the final peace treaty, citing his opposition to any compromises, accusing Dragoumis of being to accommodating to the Soviets and the Turks (think of the propaganda war: was not Dragoumis part of the Constantinople Group with Souliotes, that sought accommodation with the Ottomans, was he not an Anti-Venizelist and pro-Royalist, had he not flirted with Marxism, is he not in coalition with Communists, does he not tolerate Ares Makedon etc). Pangalos the Architect of Victory vs. Dragoumis the Prime Minister that gave Romiosyni back their Church.

This is indeed likely. I have argued before that due to Soviet opposition, Greece will very likely not get nearly what it thinks it deserves from the peace settlement, leading to a 'mutilated victory' feeling (and intensely anti-Soviet feelings). Pangalos was very much a political animal, and had enormous ambition. OTL Pangalos was an admirer of Mussolini (as was Venizelos in his later years) and always saw himself as a 'strong man' in waiting. On the other hand, he was not exactly young, and the stress of running a two-front war of existential proportions definitely will have an impact... IOTL he died in 1952, and I don't think he will last that long ITTL; even so, unless a fortuitous heart attack kills him off, there remains enough time for him to launch a political movement against Dragoumis and perhaps even become PM. Ironically, this would mirror the Constantine/Venizelos split after the Balkan War, only this time with the Venizelist Pangalos as Constantine, and the formerly royalist Dragoumis as Venizelos...