Let me guess, Greek Constantinople on the European side and Turkish Istanbul on the Asian side?
Or the Greeks are using their own name and the Turks theirs.
The regia marina and aeronautica doing better would be due to the allies controlling more of the Med when the Nazis would attack.
The Regia Aeronautica, airplane quality wise is certainly better off than OTL, as the series 5 fighters went into service some 6 months ahead of OTL. On the down side it has been fighting one more active front in the Balkans, as of the start of May 1943 this has cost Italy 442 more aircraft since June 1941. The Italian navy... it has nothing to be ashamed of, for the past three years but it has certainly been a rough time for it...
Which monuments are on European Constantinople? What would the exact border be between the European and Asian side?
About everything the Greeks will be caring about... but also most of the monuments the Turks will be caring about...
I'd say the border would tend to be the Bosphorus. Doubt the Greeks are getting Uskudar/Scutari.
What happens in Constantinople is open in more ways than one... including me no being entirely decided.
Re Constantinople/Istanbul, I foresaw for the future of the City and the whole Bosphorus, a post war situation similar but reverse to OTL Berlin... I. e. taken by the Allies, but internationalized and divided among three or four Military and Naval occupation zones with one of them ceded/granted per treaty/interallies political agreement, to the Soviets...
That's something the Soviets will be most certainly pushing VERY strongly for. Or even outright Soviet control of the straits if they can get away with it. For a hypothetical scenario, would the Soviets really mind if Bulgaria switched sides to them and remained in Thrace and Eastern Macedonia for example? The Greeks and the Western Allies WOULD of course mind.
What are the chances Balbo survives the end of Fascism by disassociating himself from Mussolini early enough? He could easily be an elder statesman in the country after the war ends if he plays his cards right, and he had a somewhat favorable reputation abroad from his aviation career.
I think he could well survive the end of fascism, particularly since he had openly distanced himself from both antisemitism and the German alliance. What would be his position in post-war Italian politics though? Not MSI, that got the pro-Germans and a Balbo who openly went against Mussolini would be anathema to them. Not the Christian Democrats either, De Gasperi would have no reason to want him. The
Common Man's Front constituency seems a reasonable possibility to me.
Perhaps he could serve similar role on neo-fascism as Dino Grandi in OTL.
Depends on what exactly happens to Italy and what's Balbo's actual role to it...
Pretty much all of them.
The Walls, the Hippodrome, Hagia Sophia, the Basilica Cistern, the Grand Baazar, Galata Tower, pretty much all palaces and mosques of note (thought of course there are mosques and Ottoman mansions/villas on the Asian side), the Rumelian Citadel, Sirkeci/Istanbul Train Station, pretty much all Ottoman era government buildings.
Asian side has the Anatolian Citadel and the Haydarpaşa Train Station and the Maiden's Tower.
Yup. After all the historical city is in effect solely a fraction of the modern one. On a different note from memory all three major Turkish football clubs of the city Galatasaray, Besiktas and Fenerbahce are based on the European side?
Well... that means ITTL Greece more than likely isn't getting any part of Bithynia whatsoever, which is really sad... And bad for the post war balance of power for Greece.
Bithynia, had an overwhelming Turkish majority, before the exchange of populations. What are the Greeks supposed to be doing, assuming victory come 1945? Ethic cleanse all of Anatolia to the Sakarya? And assume the Greeks DO want to ethic cleanse the whole place. Why the Western Allies or the Soviets will be willing to allow this? What is Moscow gaining from an American satellite securely controlling both sides of the straits? Neither Greece nor Turkey are great powers in their own right.
Probably divided into 5 occupation zones, there is no way Greece does not get to be the main authority in one occupation zone. After all it was Greece which defended the City.
Greece did participate in the occupation before 1941. In the event of the internationalized city going on it would most likely continue.
Interesting! Well, that means Turkey will be screwed out of a lot of potential tourism in the future. Not to mention there's no way the Greeks won't make Hagia Sophia a church full time to spite the Turks and ensure Greek domination of Constantinople. Also, I hope Greece can get Bithynia, but if they can't at least they got most of their goals.
If the Greeks are in actual control of Constantinople it does become a church. It's not a matter of spiting the other side or anything. They would consider it natural. "we've just liberated the central seat of the Orthodox church. What do you mean we should not reconsecrate it?
What I find interesting are the ramifications in Yugoslavia. So far we know the following:
- The Chetniks were strong-armed by the Royal Yugoslav goverment to become active against the Axis.
- The Royalists have a battle-hardened and mostly serbian field army in Greece.
Serbian and Montenegrin but yes, and at the moment the prevailing Montenegrin opinion will be they are Serb.
The Royalists have significantly greater legitimacy compared to OTL.
Having 100,000 men on the front with the prospect to double it as soon as supply permits would tend to do this yes...
Along with this legitimacy the Chetniks will have a sginificantly greater arms supply by the Allies. The royal goverment has enough significance (read: a small field army) to persuade the British to minimize the supply to Tito.
As of 1943-44 it could well make more sense to use the same arms to equip units of the field army in Greece than shipping them to the partisans or the Chetniks. It wouldn't even much affect the size of the partisan forces. After all the Partisans received from the west arms for about 153,000 men through 1944 and about 166,000 from the Soviets. In the same period their forces went from 329,000 to 648,000 despite taking ~211,000 casualties at the same time. If one also adds that all the Soviet aid was after October 1944 at which point the Partisan army went up from ~400,000 to 648,000 locally requisitioned arms were at least if not more significant than the aid from the West.
I think the stage is set for a post-war Yugoslav Civil War. It will be brutal. I don't think that any side will have an overwhelming advantage. If I may make a guess, I think it is possible to see Yugoslavia splitting in three, between a royalist Serbia, a communist Croatia and a liberal Slovenia. The map I have in mind is this one with the border depicting the pre-war Banovina of Croatia.
How in such a scenario would Slovenia end up outside Yugoslav control? Unless of course the armies advancing from Italy got there first ahead of the armies advancing from Yugoslavia...
Under these conditions, Italy might retain Istria. Tito will have much bigger fish to fry in Bosnia and Krajina. If Italy manages to be more useful to the Allies than OTL, then the chances for an italian Istria are maximized.
If there was a civil war, it would certainly be a distinct possibility. If there is one is would also have further consequences. Frex Tito will need Soviet supplies. This and playing at independence from Stalin don't go along very well. We likely see the "comrade Stalin's second and most loyal lieutenant" going full tilt.
So, would seems possible thath ITTL Yugoslavia civil war would take the place of the OTL Greece civil war but very much like multiplied x 10 ...
Only if there was one Tito and the Nationalists would Both be starting with armies going to the hundreds of thousands...
Also, any possible civil war scenario there should take into account that ITTL would probably be both Soviet and Wallies troops in the same Yugoslavia or nearby enough as occupation troops in Austria, Albania, Bulgaria(?).
If you want to get funny that way on whose occupation zone does Bavaria end up TTL? If it's French, or British or... Italians do they oppose the Bayernpartei as the Americans did?
All good points. I think the assessment of a civil war being likely in Croatia postwar has a lot of merit, and the position of Italy and Greece directly nearby as (most likely) Allies-aligned powers seems like it would tip the scales towards either the Royalists or a West-aligned republican movement, rather than the Yugoslav Partisans.
It would give the Nationalists a secure line of supply for certain. The partizans would still be starting with numerical superiority in all likehood and their own secure supply line...
That said, there's a lot of room for diplomaric horse trading to be involved regarding foreign intervention. Bulgaria is an important card here; depending on whether it is Soviet-aligned or Allies-aligned (and for that matter how the war is going in Yugoslavia), it isn't out of the question for Northern Macedonia to be on the table in exchange for its own military intervention.
If the Bulgarians invaded Yugoslavia again, the fourth time in as many decades, the Greeks would be having kittens, the moment the Bulgarians crossed the border Greek divisions would be crossing north in turn...
Same is the case for Italy and pieces of irredenta on the Adriatic coast (particularly if they're in talks with the government in Belgrade, as any Croatian or Slovenian territory in Italian hands makes Serb predominance in government easier to maintain). Hell, there's outside chances the Hungarians, Albanians, and Romanians could get involved under similar auspices.
I could quite easily see such a Yugoslav War taking a similar position to the OTL Korean War in defining the postwar relationship between the *Warsaw Pact and *NATO (or whatever analogues of each arise, given that our PoD is far enough back some sizable variation in membership and structure is in the cards). It does bring into debate what would happen in Korea in this case, whether Soviet resources would be focused westward instead of on supporting the overthrowing of the ROK, or conversely if Western efforts would be too distracted by a European war to effectively combat the spread of communism in East Asia. The outcome of the Pacific and Chinese Civil Wars will also be key in defining how/whether a war in Korea happens ITTL:
If there is a Yugoslav civil war it's almost certain to come right after the end of the actual war if not before it even ends. OTL Korea took 5 years to start and the Soviets in 1945 can probably arm a 200,000 or for that matter a 500,000 man army without even noticing, given the mountains of surplus material and German spoils they have available. Does a Yugoslav civil war that's a large scale conventional fight affect American attitudes faster leading to providing heavy arms to Sygman Ree? And does this potentially head to the South starting a war? (likely would not end up very well...)
We are in 1943 and the Allies are advancing rapidly in the Mediterranean.
Perhaps in the Balkans, Italy and Anatolia are a quicker path to victory over the Axis and in 1945 some Greek divisions are liberating Cambodia
Perhaps... then the main supply line would be a single track railroad going north from Thessaloniki, I note Thessaloniki isn't even liberated yet at her port has about 3,000t capacity.
Well, the path to victory in 1918 was half through Northern France and Belgium, half through the Balkans.
Which tends to be forgotten but I digress.
en.wikipedia.org
sofia and ankara look a bit like hamburg when the war is over
Once the 15th Air Force shows up... Then of course action brings reaction. The Germans in OTL actively sabotaged licence production of the Avia B135 in Bulgaria. Avia is controlled TTL by lean Hermann and you can't just let the Royal Bulgarian air force go to hell TTL with an active front in Greece.
I think the capital ittl is Sivas not Ankara but I'd think they'd bomb civ populations as part of WWII since I don't think the Turks will go down without a fight.
Sofia should also be bombed into oblivion.
Why would the Americans bother? Beyond what they did OTL?
I think the Balkans are set to be vastly different ittl. The Yugoslav civil war idea is pretty interesting, I could see Serbia/Royal Yugoslavia holding onto Montenegro and N-Macedonia here if theres some sort of earlier split with the north...
The countries that I'm really looking at are Romania and Bulgaria. I seem to recall would've-been-King Michael was born a princess ttl(am I remembering that right?)
And for added fun, for various definitions of fun Corneliu Codreanu is also around...
so I wonder what might happen with an equivalent coup/flip? Bulgaria seems likely to end up in the western sphere but I wonder how that might play out with a functional Greece recovering from the... 'Policies' the Bulgarians have been enacting in their occupation...
The Greeks and the Yugoslavs won't exactly be happy that's for certain...
Yep, I find it hard to raise any claim for Bithynia.
Caria on the other hand is interesting. IIRC, there are many Greek/Carian refugees in Smyrna after the annexation of the area by Turkey so the future of the area will be debated.
Anyway, territorial gains in Anatolia might not be of extreme importance for Greeks now that the ultimate goal of Megali Idea seems to be fulfilled and the dream of retaking Poli is on the verge of actualization. Might prefer not to press English that much so they will ensure that in future they will be able to annex the only important part missing to unite all large Greek population under one state, Cyprus.
Technicaly the Megali Idea ended in 1922 but TTL and OTL if for different reasons. Now this does not mean that by 1944 the Greeks will not want territory in Anatolia but their primary concern would be securing a strong border not liberating populations that are not there any more for the most part...
Tbf my argument for bithnyia is that Prussia is given to the USSR for geopolitical concerns anyways so it may be so ittl (hopefully Prussia is bigger ittl).
Tbf Greece has a much better claim on Caria ittl as it was basically controlled by Italy for a while before being given to the Turks, and a bunch of Greeks were from Caria as other posters have said.
It can make one even claiming the Dodecanese and the Carian coast are a single territorial unit. Of course this could backfire if the Turkish population is larger than the Greek one, Dodecanese include.
Tbf Greece really should be thinking about Cyprus but considering how ittl Cyprus would have a lot more Greeks being able to fight I don't see the Brits being able to control it for long, and the Turks would not be able to divide the island like otl.
She should. Of course there are mitigating factors from the British not wanting to let go to Dragoumis not having
