No GNW (or “Peter goes South”)

Not everything at once: Charles is not forgotten but I’m still thinking about details of the “stupid war”. 😉

BTW, why do you think that for Frederik Russian alliance was a must? After all, Russia was absolutely unknown military factor in 1699. Of course, Russian-Danish treaty of 1699 (which was signed few months earlier than one with August) looks as an absolute stupidity on Peter’s side if one takes “defense” seriously: unlike the case with Denmark, the reason for the Swedish attack on Russia was simply absent. But he was clearly itching for war or was just happy that a reputable European state is ready to take him seriously.'

It's just my analysis of the Danish situation, Denmark-Poland had wages with disastrous effect in 1655-60, Denmark had done far better alone in 1675-79 but had gotten a white peace forced upon them by France, at the same time it should be obvious to Denmark that Sweden would have learnt something from the Scanian War. Russia was not just important to wage the war, but because it would be far harder to force a white peace on Denmark if they also had to force a white peace of Russia and to lesser extent "Poland", but on the other hand without Sweden joining France, France won't intervene to force a white peace on Denmark.

So is Danish war without Russia unrealistic or just unlikely?

The more I think about it, as I wrote the down my thoughts, I have concluded that you're right. The lesson from the Scanian War was that Denmark could fight Sweden, but only if great powers were distracted and Sweden wasn't part of an alliance with either France, England, or Netherlands. Denmark and Saxony may wait a little longer without Russia and if Sweden don't join the War of Spanish Succession they will attack. Of course, worst case for Poland is if the war begins at same time as OTL and Denmark is removed from the war by England and Netherlands and Augustus don't have Russia to back him up.

As for Charles, he was AFAIK doing a lot of the statesmanship work even during the war but, OTOH, he had an army to maintain and a lot of the not too rich Swedish nobles who considered a war as a way to improve their situation (and to win some glory). Of course, he could sell services of his army to a higher bidder (or to one who suited him politically) and remain at home but he does not look the type.

But at the same time, he may transfer his need for conflict into conflict with the Swedish Estates instead.

And a recipient of his services/ally is not an obvious choice (I’m still in process of choosing the lucky one 😉).

I don't think he will rent his army out; great powers don't rent their armies out. So, the Swedish army will only take part in wars where Charles will lead it.
 
This sounds interesting. I've always thought Russia had terrible luck in its selection of "the Greats." Given he spend 21 of his 29 years of sole reign at war with Sweden, interesting to see what he will do, since despite that OTL he found the time to invade the Ottomans, the Persians, and launch a Central Asian adventure. Founding a new city, building a new fleet, various reforms and "reforms." Without being consumed by one conflict, I don't see realistically how he won't do a lot of crazy things, some of which will succeed, some will catastrophically fail, but all will be fascinating, I am sure.
 
This sounds interesting. I've always thought Russia had terrible luck in its selection of "the Greats." Given he spend 21 of his 29 years of sole reign at war with Sweden, interesting to see what he will do, since despite that OTL he found the time to invade the Ottomans, the Persians, and launch a Central Asian adventure. Founding a new city, building a new fleet, various reforms and "reforms." Without being consumed by one conflict, I don't see realistically how he won't do a lot of crazy things, some of which will succeed, some will catastrophically fail, but all will be fascinating, I am sure.

While I know @alexmilman will want to crush my head like a soda can upon reading this, I think they’re right in their choices in “the Greats”, simply because they increased the foreign policy importance of Russia, yes they didn’t make the life of the average Russian better (they in f@ct made it worse), but the Russias both left behind were countries whose importance had increased significant. Russia after Peter had become a European great power which was able to truly join the European political game, neither Poland nor Sweden would arise to threaten Russia again, Catherine left behind a Russia whose international importance would only be rivaled by USSR.

“The Great” is not a title you give to good rulers, it‘s a title you give to rulers who expand their country’s territory and increase its international importance.
 
3.2. China trade
Peter needed a lot of money and one of the potentially big sources was trade with China which started almost immediately after the Treaty of Nerchinsk. Russian merchants began organizing caravans from Nerchinsk to Peking, the round trip usually taking 10–12 months. In 1692–93 Eberhard Isbrand Ides went on a commercial-diplomatic mission to Peking. He left Peking in February 1694 and reached Moscow 11 months later. After his return he was able not to just pay off all his debts but also to found few manufactures near Moscow. Peter’s reaction wax’s immediate: he ordered all trade to be monopolized by the state. A diplomatic mission had been sent to China and a trade agreement had been reached. A trading settlement of Kyakhta was founded on the Mongolian border and the Russian caravans had to proceed from it to Pekin once in 3 years [1]. Russians were trading mostly furs (70-85% by value mostly squirrel by quantity, about 2-4 million pelts annually)
for a wide variety of the Chinese products which could be sold in Western Europe at a considerable profit: silk, porcelain, tea, rhubarb,
[2], cotton, etc. For a while the monopoly looked OK but it did not take long to find out that the picture is not too rosy. A huge caravan [3] had been slowly moving to its destination losing horses and cattle on its way until it reached “Russian House” in Pekin. At that point numerous state-appointed “guards” would appear preventing movement in the city while the state officials would do their best to slow down the trade in a reasonable expectation that sooner or later need to go back would force the Russians to sell their wares cheaper. By restricting the movements and contacts, the Chinese usually had been trying to sell the low quality items. As a result, sometimes caravan was returning with the unsold goods which had been bartered on a border. When eventually caravan reached Moscow, the state-owned goods had been placed into the state warehouses to be officially assessed and eventually auctioned. Caravan of 1702 brought 100,000 rubles of profit, of 1705-09 - 270,000 rubles [4], of 1707-11 - 223,000 but most of the rest were not that profitable and some even resulted in a loss. In a meantime the illegal private trade across the border had a volume few times higher and much greater profitability.

While not abolishing the big caravans, Peter eventually decided to permit a private trade in Kyakhta and to abolish state monopoly on selling the furs abroad. As a result, the custom dues received from the trade through Kyakhta amounted for more than 30% of all Russian custom revenues [5]. Total volume of trade in Kyakhta exceeded 1,000,000 rubles by 1720 [6].

Getting the goods was, of course, only a part of the task. The next problem was to carry them to the selling point (Moscow). An order regarding construction of the “Siberian Road” was issued in 1689 but little action had been taken until Peter started paying serious attention to the subject. The initial route was heavily relying upon the rivers with a lot of a portage and long delays caused by the weather conditions.
1639010513241.png

Construction of a reasonably good (by the Russian standards 😜) road took few years and it still involved quite a few river crossings but a travel time was cut from a couple years down to few months. The most important domestic byproduct of that trade was growing popularity of the tea and its increasing proportion in the imports.


[1] I’m getting ahead of the OTL schedule: in a reality until 1722 the caravans had been going from Nerchinsk. In 1722 Manchurian government closed the trade due to the border dispute, which was resolved in 1727 by Kyakhta Treaty.
[2] Cost of 1 pud (16 kg) of the rhubarb transported to Moscow was 5 - 7 rubles. The foreign merchants in Moscow had been paying for it 37 rubles to sell it in London or Amsterdam for 289 rubles. Taking into an account that the big quantities of it had been rotting in the state warehouses due to the bureaucratic clumsiness, it is not a big surprise that a seemingly profitable trade often ended up with the financial losses.
[3] One of the first ones included 205 men, 1,650 horses, 475 goods carts, 162 provision carts and 665 cattle for food. Besides the state-owned goods, the participants had a right to carry the trade items of their own.
[4] For these money you could built 9 frigates or maintain 17 infantry regiments for an year.
[5] Of course, all these things happened during the reign of CII but once she claimed that when she wants to introduce something new, she starts with looking into Peter’s official documents and always finds that this was in the plans. Of course, she was lying (as usually) but can I take her on her word? 😉
[6] 30 years here, 30 years there, is it really important? 😉
 
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While I know @alexmilman will want to crush my head like a soda can upon reading this, I think they’re right in their choices in “the Greats”, simply because they increased the foreign policy importance of Russia, yes they didn’t make the life of the average Russian better (they in f@ct made it worse), but the Russias both left behind were countries whose importance had increased significant. Russia after Peter had become a European great power which was able to truly join the European political game, neither Poland nor Sweden would arise to threaten Russia again, Catherine left behind a Russia whose international importance would only be rivaled by USSR.

“The Great” is not a title you give to good rulers, it‘s a title you give to rulers who expand their country’s territory and increase its international importance.
You are totally wrong regarding my attitudes because I’m in a complete agreement with you. The international prestige was taking priority over well being of the people and even stability of the state (look at the mess tgat followed Peter’s death).
 
They don’t have to be frozen to start with and if Peter does not consider access to the Baltic coast as a high priority then both sides can live happily for quite a while.


I was thinking along the PLC. The main formal problem is that in this scenario, even with Charles happily chasing August all over the PLC, the PLC may not be officially at war with Sweden and with Charles putting his own client upon the PLC throne and attempt to arrange for the “Partition 0” may easily result in a war with Sweden. A side question is wot which end any reasonable ruler would want a part of the Eastern PLC? 😜 Anyway, for quite a while Peter is going to be busy preparing to war with the Ottomans and then even more busy fighting it. Getting a piece of the Lithuanian forests of Belorussian swamps probably does not worth related troubles.

But I have a question: Swedish officers in the Russian army would be nothing new (Baur and von Rönne had been Swedish subjects) but what about a probability of the Russian “volunteers” serving in the Swedish army? Would they be accepted?

Well, more for Peter to drink. 😂 But, IIRC, there were rumors that before sailing upon his “crusade” Charles was not exactly an abstinent.

When it comes to the Polish-LIthuanian Commonwealth and its status in the war, the Sejm did try to declare neutrality, but Karl did not accept it - as the Duke of Courland (a Polish-Lithuanian vassal) had been present at the Siege of Riga 1700 and the Battle of Düna and the Commonwealth had allowed the Saxonian army to use its territory as a staging ground for the attack on Swedish territory. It seems like the Sejm accepted this, because the Polish crown army was called and came to fight at Kliszow 1702, so the Commonwealth was at war alright.

Gaining territory gains you prestige and tells everyone you won the war. Never mind the casualties or costs associated. Peter took Azov despite the port and fort being pretty much useless withotu controlling Kerch because it was much better than admitting defeat.

Sweden did make extensive use of mercenaries - a large part of the army that won the Battle of Helsingborg 1710 and Battle of Gadebusch 1712 were Swiss and German mercenaries captured in the Battle of Fraustadt 1706, that had been sent to Sweden to retrain in the Carolean combat style and Sweden did try to make use of Polish and Cossack auxiliary troops during the campaigns in the Commonwealth and Russia. The garrison regiments in Sweden's German provinces consisted chiefly of Germans. This is also the era of renting armies - Sweden rented its German garrisons (and Rehnskiöld with them) to the League of Augsburg and the Naval Powes during the Nine Years' War 1688-1697 and Denmark rented part of its army to the Emperor 1700-1709. If Peter wants to send Russian troops and officers to get experience, he can offer Karl to rent part of the Russian army - if the price is good (maybe even very low) Karl might very well accept. If so, the Russians will fight in their own way as an auxiliary unit. If Peter wants to send men and officers individually, they can volunteer in Swedish garrison and replacement regiments and will then be taught the Carolean combat style.

In fact, offering this would probably improve Swedo-Russian relations quite a bit. Karl was furious at August for professing his friendship and then going to war, considering him below the status of a God-anointed monarch. Support from Peter in any way, even if paid and for the advantage of Russians learning western ways of war would probably be seen as Peter's agreement that the word of a monarch is sacrosant and would endear Peter and Russia to Karl quite a bit.

However, most Swedes in the army had a pretty low opinion on Russia as an 'Asiatic' country with a backwards army based on the tendency of the Streltsy to be kingmakers and rebellious. The reception of Russian troops might not be what the prickly Peter would like.

Karl drank quite a bit during his youth, especially when visited by the Duke of Holstein-Gottorp, but after his grandmother chastised him after a partiuclarly bad adventure, he promised to not drink anymore in 1699 - that was with those times standards. He drank svagdricka (small beer, similar to kvass) and weak beer as well as small amounts of wine at times, and wine and beer was liberally served at the royal table, but small amounts of cognac seem to have been the only spirits served, and Karl did not drink it himself.

It's just my analysis of the Danish situation, Denmark-Poland had wages with disastrous effect in 1655-60, Denmark had done far better alone in 1675-79 but had gotten a white peace forced upon them by France, at the same time it should be obvious to Denmark that Sweden would have learnt something from the Scanian War. Russia was not just important to wage the war, but because it would be far harder to force a white peace on Denmark if they also had to force a white peace of Russia and to lesser extent "Poland", but on the other hand without Sweden joining France, France won't intervene to force a white peace on Denmark.



The more I think about it, as I wrote the down my thoughts, I have concluded that you're right. The lesson from the Scanian War was that Denmark could fight Sweden, but only if great powers were distracted and Sweden wasn't part of an alliance with either France, England, or Netherlands. Denmark and Saxony may wait a little longer without Russia and if Sweden don't join the War of Spanish Succession they will attack. Of course, worst case for Poland is if the war begins at same time as OTL and Denmark is removed from the war by England and Netherlands and Augustus don't have Russia to back him up.



But at the same time, he may transfer his need for conflict into conflict with the Swedish Estates instead.



I don't think he will rent his army out; great powers don't rent their armies out. So, the Swedish army will only take part in wars where Charles will lead it.

I agree with you here - Denmark wanted war and thought they could win it if the grand powers did not support Sweden. With hindsight, this is probably erronous, as the Swedish army was at its absolute best during this era, especially before it had been worn down in the Commonwealth and Russia - and it still won pretty handily at Helsingbord and Gadebusch against well-supplied and well-maintained Danish troops that had experience from fighting for the Emperor between 1700 and 1709.

Denmark and Saxony will probably go to war, and I think they will suffer badly for it, as Sweden 1700 or 1701 is much, much stronger than Sweden 1675.

At the time just before the war, Karl was involving himself actively with the running of the country and his role as chief justice. The estates needed not be called, as they had confirmed his majority in 1697 and he had all the tools and power he needed to rule. I don't think he had a special need for conflict - he was harsh as chief justice and big on the rule of law and the rights of God-ordiained monarchs, which is why he was especially pissed at August for his treachery, professing his friendship while conspiring against Sweden.

Sweden did have a habit of renting out its German garrisons (overwhelmingly manned by Germans), reinforced with volunteers and officers from the alotted regiments. They had been rented out to the League of Augsburg/the English and Dutch 1688-1697. If Sweden remains at peace, I can see Karl renting out the German garrisons to the Dutch and English or even the Emperor to make an extra thaler or two.
 
I agree with you here - Denmark wanted war and thought they could win it if the grand powers did not support Sweden. With hindsight, this is probably erronous, as the Swedish army was at its absolute best during this era, especially before it had been worn down in the Commonwealth and Russia - and it still won pretty handily at Helsingbord and Gadebusch against well-supplied and well-maintained Danish troops that had experience from fighting for the Emperor between 1700 and 1709.

Denmark and Saxony will probably go to war, and I think they will suffer badly for it, as Sweden 1700 or 1701 is much, much stronger than Sweden 1675.

I think it’s more complex, the big problem Sweden had when fighting Denmark will be the same here. The Danish navy is stronger than the Swedish one, through not overwhelming so, but the bigger problem is that Danish navy is better (thanks to the Danish naval conscription system). So they can’t invade Zealand without Anglo-Dutch support, and the Swedish history of invading Norway is one long history of failure until 1814. Denmark will invade and occupy Gottorp and then not move on the Swedish possessions in Germany, Denmark will try invade Scania and miserable fail, Denmark will also invade Gotland and occupy it, but that will have no effect on Sweden. After this the Danish-Swedish conflict will turn into a naval conflict, which will cut off the German territories off from Sweden. This will last until Sweden tries to invade Jutland from Germany after which Denmark will overrun the Swedish German territories. Honestly the smartest thing any Swedish king could do would be to sacrifice Gottorp for peace with Denmark but this is Charles we’re talking about, of course even Charles may get a moment of good sense, sacrifice Gottorp and give the Gottorp family a Polish Duchy (Royal Prussia and Warmia?).
 
If Augustus is still chased by Karl through PLC *here* he'd be never re-installed (maybe he'd even re-convert to Lutheranism eventually?) and Karl's puppet Leszczyński would keep the throne (and would never be ruler of Lorraine and father-in-law of Louis XV).
 
I think it’s more complex, the big problem Sweden had when fighting Denmark will be the same here. The Danish navy is stronger than the Swedish one, through not overwhelming so, but the bigger problem is that Danish navy is better (thanks to the Danish naval conscription system). So they can’t invade Zealand without Anglo-Dutch support, and the Swedish history of invading Norway is one long history of failure until 1814. Denmark will invade and occupy Gottorp and then not move on the Swedish possessions in Germany, Denmark will try invade Scania and miserable fail, Denmark will also invade Gotland and occupy it, but that will have no effect on Sweden. After this the Danish-Swedish conflict will turn into a naval conflict, which will cut off the German territories off from Sweden. This will last until Sweden tries to invade Jutland from Germany after which Denmark will overrun the Swedish German territories. Honestly the smartest thing any Swedish king could do would be to sacrifice Gottorp for peace with Denmark but this is Charles we’re talking about, of course even Charles may get a moment of good sense, sacrifice Gottorp and give the Gottorp family a Polish Duchy (Royal Prussia and Warmia?).
The question is if the English and Dutch will intervene as they did OTL - if they do, Denmark is pretty much done as OTL. If they do not, things will go differently.

I agree with you that any Danish landing in Scania will be annihilated.

However, I am not entirely certain that the Danish navy will be completely able to cut Sweden's German provinces off - the Swedish navy at this time has 38 ships of the line and 28 frigates. While the Danish navy is larger and of better quality, it will need to spread out to cover all possible avenues from Karlskrona to Stettin, which would allow a concentrated Swedish navy escorting an army to Pommerania to punch through. And once Sweden has a proper army (and not just the German garrisons) in Germany, they can occupy Jutland.

Norway is a secondary front at best, and both Denmark and Sweden consider it such in this era. The infrastructure is not there for large-scale invasions, and both sides have strong and modern fortifications to prevent deeper incursions.

What makes you say that Denmark can take Gotland? This is not 1676 when the Swedish navy was utterly neglected and based in Stockholm, giving the Danes more than a month extra of open waters. Besides, even if the Danes take the island, there are no real fortresses to hold, as Visborg has been blown to bits 1679 by the Danes to deny it to the Swedes and Karlsvärd was not finished. Any Danish occupation force runs the risk of a couple of Swedish ships landing a force and taking the island back at any given time, and they'll only have field fortifications to support them.

Edit: I checked, and it seems the Danish navy had only 32 ships of the line in 1700 - this might be wrong, but if it is so, then the Swedish navy was the larger one. The Swedish fleet was 1 1st rate, 2 2nd rate, 20 3rd rate and 15 4th rate.
 
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Great timeline so far. Peter thinking more before he does things, and actually focusing properly on his mercurial projects will lead to less catastrophic foreign boondoggles and, hopefully, a far more prosperous Russia in the future (provided, of course, that him thinking more logically leads him to also actually improve state stability)! Will his increased logic abilities also lead him to fetishize and idolize the West less? OTL Peter is still considered a "great reformer" by many in the West, even with the catastrophes his "reforms" often produced...
 
The English and Dutch will make sure that neither the Danes or Swedes will be able to monopolises the Danish sound, as they have done countless times before. The only changes which might come from the war are in Norway or Germany really, unless other powers intervene.
 
When it comes to the Polish-LIthuanian Commonwealth and its status in the war, the Sejm did try to declare neutrality, but Karl did not accept it - as the Duke of Courland (a Polish-Lithuanian vassal) had been present at the Siege of Riga 1700 and the Battle of Düna and the Commonwealth had allowed the Saxonian army to use its territory as a staging ground for the attack on Swedish territory. It seems like the Sejm accepted this, because the Polish crown army was called and came to fight at Kliszow 1702, so the Commonwealth was at war alright.

Gaining territory gains you prestige and tells everyone you won the war. Never mind the casualties or costs associated. Peter took Azov despite the port and fort being pretty much useless withotu controlling Kerch because it was much better than admitting defeat.
OK, you got me convinced regarding Peter’s limited participation in the Little Northern War (😜). Now I have to figure what exactly he can get out of it without too much trouble and serious repercussions afterwards. And, of course, scope and form of his involvement: he still prepares for going South so this adventure on the PLC territory should not make him going South financially: his financial situation remains lousy, reforms are expensive and there are big deposits of gold and diamonds in Lithuania and Western Ukraine. 😂

Sweden did make extensive use of mercenaries - a large part of the army that won the Battle of Helsingborg 1710 and Battle of Gadebusch 1712 were Swiss and German mercenaries captured in the Battle of Fraustadt 1706, that had been sent to Sweden to retrain in the Carolean combat style and Sweden did try to make use of Polish and Cossack auxiliary troops during the campaigns in the Commonwealth and Russia. The garrison regiments in Sweden's German provinces consisted chiefly of Germans. This is also the era of renting armies - Sweden rented its German garrisons (and Rehnskiöld with them) to the League of Augsburg and the Naval Powes during the Nine Years' War 1688-1697 and Denmark rented part of its army to the Emperor 1700-1709. If Peter wants to send Russian troops and officers to get experience, he can offer Karl to rent part of the Russian army - if the price is good (maybe even very low) Karl might very well accept. If so, the Russians will fight in their own way as an auxiliary unit. If Peter wants to send men and officers individually, they can volunteer in Swedish garrison and replacement regiments and will then be taught the Carolean combat style.

In fact, offering this would probably improve Swedo-Russian relations quite a bit. Karl was furious at August for professing his friendship and then going to war, considering him below the status of a God-anointed monarch. Support from Peter in any way, even if paid and for the advantage of Russians learning western ways of war would probably be seen as Peter's agreement that the word of a monarch is sacrosant and would endear Peter and Russia to Karl quite a bit.

However, most Swedes in the army had a pretty low opinion on Russia as an 'Asiatic' country with a backwards army based on the tendency of the Streltsy to be kingmakers and rebellious. The reception of Russian troops might not be what the prickly Peter would like.

Well, scenario of a direct military involvement in the PLC more or less assumes Russian corps acting independently or semi-independently and definitely not including Streltsy: some of their regiments are going to be reformed into the soldiers regiments (as in OTL), some disbanded to fill the newly-created soldier regiments and the rest is rarely being used fir anything but the garrison duties. So the regulars have Western style uniforms, reasonably “Western” tactics (this issue I’ll address later), Western style, even if not the most modern firearms (still plug baginets) and quite a few German officers. Not quite up to the Swedish standard but not quite Asiatic either, except for the irregulars.

But I was also planning to put some Russian nobles as the volunteers into the Swedish army. The practice was quite common and Peter is going to pick up the reasonably “civilized” (in the terms of appearances) candidates who are also intelligent enough to understand and report the Swedish military experience.

I’m also planning to send few volunteers to France fir the same purpose. After all, at least Ibrahim Hannibal in 1716 spent 1.5 years studying in the engineering school and then served in the French army during the War of Quadruple Alliance (winning captain’s rank). Russian-French relations in 1700 are not excessively cozy but, with the Russian strict neutrality and cooling relations with Austria, they are not bad either.

Karl drank quite a bit during his youth, especially when visited by the Duke of Holstein-Gottorp, but after his grandmother chastised him after a partiuclarly bad adventure, he promised to not drink anymore in 1699 - that was with those times standards. He drank svagdricka (small beer, similar to kvass) and weak beer as well as small amounts of wine at times, and wine and beer was liberally served at the royal table, but small amounts of cognac seem to have been the only spirits served, and Karl did not drink it himself.

There is no need for Karl and Peter to met personally (and, anyway, an official meeting of two monarchs does not have to end up with a drinking match) - reasonably good and mutually-profitable relations should be enough.


I agree with you here - Denmark wanted war and thought they could win it if the grand powers did not support Sweden. With hindsight, this is probably erronous, as the Swedish army was at its absolute best during this era, especially before it had been worn down in the Commonwealth and Russia - and it still won pretty handily at Helsingbord and Gadebusch against well-supplied and well-maintained Danish troops that had experience from fighting for the Emperor between 1700 and 1709.

Probably nobody had doubts regarding quality of the Swedish troops but Charles’ personal reputation by 1699 was a completely different issue and it was not high at all. I strongly suspect that Peter’s agreement to join the adventure was at least partially based upon the reports regarding Charles’s behavior (rather ironically, if Peter ever bothered to look at the mirror to see someone with even worse habits). Who would expect that this reputed weakling turns to be a great general?


Sweden did have a habit of renting out its German garrisons (overwhelmingly manned by Germans), reinforced with volunteers and officers from the alotted regiments. They had been rented out to the League of Augsburg/the English and Dutch 1688-1697. If Sweden remains at peace, I can see Karl renting out the German garrisons to the Dutch and English or even the Emperor to make an extra thaler or two.
At some point Piper was proposing to Charles to make a peace and rent his army. I don’t think that he meant just the garrisons. But choice of the employer would not be an easy one. I’m planning to address it later within framework of the Little Northern War.

Thanks for the valuable information. BTW, did Sweden of that time have any problems with grain production?
 
Well, scenario of a direct military involvement in the PLC more or less assumes Russian corps acting independently or semi-independently and definitely not including Streltsy: some of their regiments are going to be reformed into the soldiers regiments (as in OTL), some disbanded to fill the newly-created soldier regiments and the rest is rarely being used fir anything but the garrison duties. So the regulars have Western style uniforms, reasonably “Western” tactics (this issue I’ll address later), Western style, even if not the most modern firearms (still plug baginets) and quite a few German officers. Not quite up to the Swedish standard but not quite Asiatic either, except for the irregulars.

But I was also planning to put some Russian nobles as the volunteers into the Swedish army. The practice was quite common and Peter is going to pick up the reasonably “civilized” (in the terms of appearances) candidates who are also intelligent enough to understand and report the Swedish military experience.

I’m also planning to send few volunteers to France fir the same purpose. After all, at least Ibrahim Hannibal in 1716 spent 1.5 years studying in the engineering school and then served in the French army during the War of Quadruple Alliance (winning captain’s rank). Russian-French relations in 1700 are not excessively cozy but, with the Russian strict neutrality and cooling relations with Austria, they are not bad either.

Probably nobody had doubts regarding quality of the Swedish troops but Charles’ personal reputation by 1699 was a completely different issue and it was not high at all. I strongly suspect that Peter’s agreement to join the adventure was at least partially based upon the reports regarding Charles’s behavior (rather ironically, if Peter ever bothered to look at the mirror to see someone with even worse habits). Who would expect that this reputed weakling turns to be a great general?

Thanks for the valuable information. BTW, did Sweden of that time have any problems with grain production?

Noble officers as volunteers (or observers) in other armies was quite common during this era, for example, Carl Magnus Stuart, who was one of Karl's tutors in military matters and together with Rehnskiöld and Karl XI the father of the Swedish Carolean tactics had served in England, Austria and observed in Italy, Switzerland and the Netherlands. Russian officers coming to serve in European armies would most likely be seen as Russia entering into "normal" European habits as a part of becoming more European than Asiatic (by the views of the contemporaries).

Karl was untested in 1699, for sure. Young, inexperienced and impulsive. However, he turned out to have a very good and throrough education in military matters and were intelligent enough to let more experienced generals plan his battles - Stuart planned the landing at Holbaek and Rehnskiöld planned the battle of Narva, the crossing of Düna and the battle of Kliszow.

Sweden did suffer a famine 1695-1697 that hit northern Sweden and Finland especially hard - some historians calculate that Finland lost a third of its population. The crown attempted to relieve the famine by importing Russian, Polish and Livonian grain - half a million barrels were purchased, but as is often the case with famines, the infrastructure to bring large amounts of grain from the ports to the inland villages were the famine was at its worst simply did not exist, and a lot of the grain ended up rotting.

Of course, this was also reported to Denmark, Saxony and Russia OTL. The famine along with the young an inexperienced King made Sweden look weak and ripe for reconquest of earlier lost lands.

Under normal harvests, Sweden was self-sufficient in grain.
 
3.3. Economy, economy….

[This may end up to be on a boring side and actually quite close to OTL except for moving some dates slightly ahead of the schedule, whichh would be possible without ongoing major war and with Peter being more concentrated and pragmatic than in OTL.

What I found quite amusing in the books of alt-history genre (usually based upon the knowledge of a modern person being transplanted into the head of some historic personage) is an easiness with which all problems are being resolved. A “transplant”, who usually was working as an apprentice of a village idiot or just was fired for being too dumb to serve as a garbage collector, has encyclopedic knowledge of a wide variety of technologies (usually, military ones so in no time army of the XVII-XVIII is being armed with AK-47’s or at least the rifles) and a perfect knowledge of the places in which deposits of gold and silver are going to be discovered centuries later. 😂

Unfortunately, Peter in this TL is not that lucky]

Of course, Peter’s main focus was not on a silly idea to make his subjects prosperous: their main function was to contribute to state’s “glory”, which was much more important than their selfish interests [1]. “Glory” could be won only by the successful wars and to conduct such wars your army (and navy, if you have one) must be properly armed and dressed. Of course, as an exception, the officers may go to a battle with their cravats being loosely arranged (as happened at Steinkirk) and this even may end up as a fashion but there are limits to everything and an officer without a wig was a rather absurd idea.

To make a long story short, to have a properly equipped army you need to have a lot of cloth, leather, iron and horses and for the navy you also need a lot of wood, hemp, flax and other things. Quite a few of the items on the list do not grow on the trees and can’t easily obtained by a royal decree or by clicking the fingers (which is more or less the same). By 1699 obtaining most of the items in a needed volume and quality was quite problematic.

Metallurgy and the firearms
By the end of the XVII Russia had some metallurgical manufactures in Tula, Kashira and Karelia (Olonetz manufactures) and Lipetsk but production volume was not even close to covering the needs. In 1700 Peter ordered creation of the first iron works in Ural, Neviansky Manufacture, and in 1702, as one of his most successful actions in the area of economics, he transferred ownership of this plant to Nikita Demidov who within few years turned the enterprise into “metallurgical empire” based upon massive usage of the serfs “assigned” to it. With other state-owned and private plants, by 1710 Russia had 40 iron-producing plants and 25 copper plants raising annual iron production from 120-150, 000 puds [3] to over 1,000,000 puds (approximately the same volume as Britain ) and by that time Russia had up to 13,000 bronze and iron cannons, including the naval guns, which was probably over-production. In 1704 Peter appointed Jacob Bruce inspector of the Russian artillery (генерал фельдцехмейстер) with a task to reform it. By 1706 Russian field artillery had 157 pieces (cannons of 3, 6, 8 and 12 pounds, and howitzers of 20 and 40 pounds ) [4]. The siege artillery had 60 18 pound and 60 24 pound cannons, 40 mortars of 5 and 9 puds (the 9-puders were eventually discarded due to their enormous weight) and 200 6 pounder mortars. Fortresses had a mixture of the old and new guns, total of 3486 cannons, 492 mortars, 37 howitzers and 213 other types.

Situation with the muskets was not as rosy as with the artillery. Extended capacities of the arsenals in Tula, Moscow and other places allowed to produce approximately 15,000 - 20,000 soldier, 6,000 -10,000 dragoon muskets and up to 4,000 pairs of pistols annually, which still was not enough and required, at least fir a while, continued purchases in Europe. Caliber of the infantry musket was established 0.78” with the bullet’s weight of 33 grams. Total length was approximately 1.4 meter. Dragoons had the shorter muskets of the same caliber. Muskets of 1701 still had plug baginets (a on picture below) but by 1706 the socket baginets had been adopted (b, c and d).

Swords for the infantry and cavalry had been produced in the needed numbers.
1639080054593.jpeg


Gunpowder
By 1696 annual production amounted to approximately 10,000 puds, in 1704 - 20,000 and by 1710 exceeded 30,000. Total annual consumption at the time of war was between 13 and 30,000 and kept growing. The main production was in/near Moscow and Kazan but the ingredients had to be brought from Ukraine and mid-/lower-Volga area. In 1710 introduction of a new technology allowed to improve gunpowder’s quality.

Peter issued an order to have 500 charges worth per cannon and “reserve for 80,000 soldiers”


Leather
One of few items of which Russia had enough: high quality leather was one of the main Russian export items since at least mid-XVII.

[Not so good news will follow…. 😢]

[1] By 1700 the theory was put to practice by Richelieu and then LXIV, so it has to be great. 😜
[2] “war was the only royal entertainment in which subjects also participated” ‘Fanfan the Tulip’
[3] 1pud=16,38kg=40 Russian pounds
[4] It looks like there were also few 1- and 0.5- pud mortars used in the field.
 
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The question is if the English and Dutch will intervene as they did OTL - if they do, Denmark is pretty much done as OTL. If they do not, things will go differently.

I agree, Denmark is out and won’t enter the war again.

I agree with you that any Danish landing in Scania will be annihilated.

I agree, the Danish weakness in war with Sweden was always in region where Swedes could walk to it.

However, I am not entirely certain that the Danish navy will be completely able to cut Sweden's German provinces off - the Swedish navy at this time has 38 ships of the line and 28 frigates. While the Danish navy is larger and of better quality, it will need to spread out to cover all possible avenues from Karlskrona to Stettin, which would allow a concentrated Swedish navy escorting an army to Pommerania to punch through. And once Sweden has a proper army (and not just the German garrisons) in Germany, they can occupy Jutland.

Except this will result in Sweden being in a weaker position elsewhere. Sweden need to troops a lot of places, it was why Charles attempt to do this in OTL failed. This is not the 30YW where the main Swedish force is in Germany or 2nd Northern War and the Swedish army is lightyears ahead of the Danish one. Sweden here to need to wage war on several fronts and defend Scania from invasion.

Norway is a secondary front at best, and both Denmark and Sweden consider it such in this era. The infrastructure is not there for large-scale invasions, and both sides have strong and modern fortifications to prevent deeper incursions.

What makes you say that Denmark can take Gotland? This is not 1676 when the Swedish navy was utterly neglected and based in Stockholm, giving the Danes more than a month extra of open waters. Besides, even if the Danes take the island, there are no real fortresses to hold, as Visborg has been blown to bits 1679 by the Danes to deny it to the Swedes and Karlsvärd was not finished. Any Danish occupation force runs the risk of a couple of Swedish ships landing a force and taking the island back at any given time, and they'll only have field fortifications to support them.

Good point the low strategic importance of Gotland and the stronger Swedish fleet will likely keep Denmark form invading Gotland.

Edit: I checked, and it seems the Danish navy had only 32 ships of the line in 1700 - this might be wrong, but if it is so, then the Swedish navy was the larger one. The Swedish fleet was 1 1st rate, 2 2nd rate, 20 3rd rate and 15 4th rate.

I don’t have any books for the period in the apartment, I will try find one of the better sources next time I’m in my ”cabin”. But in general I don’t really think OTL Great Northern War indicated that the Swedish navy would win over the Danish one.
 
[start of the bad news]
Cloth


Petrian army required …er… an “uniform uniform” and it had to be of the European style [1]. Not that the Russian regular troops did not have the uniforms before Peter but they were uniform on a regimental level. Peter wanted uniformity fir the whole army. At Azov most of the soldier regiments had been wearing the shortened version of streltsy’s coats and streltsy-style headgear but now he wanted all of them dressed “European”. And there was a loud “oops!”. Not that it was a secret to anybody but so far not too much of attention had been paid to the fact that the domestic production of the cloth needed for uniforms is close to zero [2]: no cloth manufactures whatsoever. As a result, in 1700 for 23 regiments (27,250 sets of the uniforms) there was a need to buy abroad 111,323 arshin [3] and this was just a start. Of course, Peter would not be Peter if he did not come to the beautifully simple solution: create state-owned manufactures and to order the merchants to open the private ones. A clearly set goal was “to start production of the cloth everywhere so that in five years there will be no need to buy it abroad … the merchants must form the companies voluntarily or, if they don’t want, involuntarily”.

The first state manufactures had been opened in Moscow and Voronezh and soon enough (probably not due to the overwhelming success) manufacture in Moscow had been transferred to the private owners who had been getting 0% loans for (re)organization. The state manufactures in Vironezh and Kazan followed the suit. In 4 years 9 manufactures had been created producing 125,000 arshins of cloth and within the next 4 years number of the manufactures increased to 14 and production to 300,000 arshin, which was still not enough: Russia had to buy 150,000 arshin in Britain and Prussia. The fundamental underlying problem behind the shortages was …. shortage of the sheep producing good quality wool. The orders to increase their number had been duly issued, the experienced shepherds had been contracted in Silesia and Poland but the stupid beasts still were not breeding fast enough. Export of the wool was prohibited, import made duty free, the sheep owners had been ordered to sell all their production to the cloth manufactures and there was still not enough of a wool which could be used for manufacturing. The Russian cloth remained to be low quality but by the reasons unknown so was the cloth bought abroad [4] in Britain, Germany and the Netherlands: “It was discovered that cloth supplied fir the uniforms, the British, Prussian and Russian as well, is quite unusable”. Somehow, the cloth bought abroad tended to be even worse than the Russian one [5] so that eventually the Senate ordered to use for the uniforms only domestic production. An order had been issued telling that the Russian cloth is at least as good as the foreign one and that the manufacture owners who fail to produce cloth of the same quality as an attached sample are going to be punished. As usually, this had the expected positive effect [6] and in the years to follow the cloth production started getting close to covering the needs.

Needless to say that, as everything else, this industry had been driven by the serfs labor. Need in the qualified workers was so high that Peter forbade to return the serfs who fled to the cloth manufactures (how bad should be their life in the estates if this hell was an attractive alternative?) to their former owners.

1639103943980.jpeg

Above is a newly-recruited soldier circa 1700. Notice the grey uniform: it is from the cheep domestic coarse un-dyed cloth. More expensive imported or higher quality domestic material (of a proper color) was for the more experienced soldiers (below).

1639104388712.jpeg


Horses
Prior to Peter Russian cavalry amounted to approximately 70,000 but government did not spent too much money and effort on providing the horses: the nobles and irregulars had their own horses and dragoons had been receiving their horses from the peasants and monasteries and after the war these horses had been returned to those responsible for their upkeep (who had been fined 10 rubles, a big sum, if the horse died). During the war the cavalrymen had to take care of the forage. Nice and cheap (for the government 😜).

The small breeding farms already existed but they amounted only fir a small fraction of the required numbers.

Of course, the whole system had to change with the introduction of a truly regular cavalry. The Azov campaigns demonstrated an absolute inadequacy both in quality and quantity. The horses were not used to the long marches and “not trained to act against infantry and artillery” [7]. The numbers required after Azov amounted to 33,000 dragoon horses and 9,000 transport horses with the service expectation of 19-12 years. Soon enough the numbers raised to 34,000 and 10,000 correspondingly. New breeding farms had been established but they could not solve the problem overnight [7].

Especially bad was situation with the horses required for the heavy cavalry. Austrian and Polish experience during the Great Ottoman War demonstrated usefulness of a heavy cavalry against the Ottomans and it was decided to create 10 cuirassier regiments. But it found that the available big horses are enough only for 3: the fundamental problem was that Russian domestic breed of the horses was relatively small and the attempts to get enough of the big ones from the peasants and monasteries was a waste of time. Import of the big foreign horses without the taxes was authorized but they cost a lot of money.

As for the rest of the cavalry, neither traditional requisition of the peasant’s horses nor purchase from this “source” produced anything close to the needed numbers “the horses had been bought at a high price but not enough and most of them rejected and except for the working horses the peasants don’t have any other” [9]. Government had to keep expanding the breeding farms purchasing horses from Arabia, Spain and Silesia. Confiscation of the peasant horses continued with a resulting decrease of the quality of an available stock (has to be expected when the best horses kept being confiscated). The military were able to get the numbers well below the required and the peasants also found themselves in the increasingly worsening situation. Only much later, when things became really bad on both sides, the military fully switched to the purchases (by that time the state and private breeding farms finally started producing the adequate numbers). [10]

Edit: As a way to find at least some remedy, the Military Collegium started purchasing horses on the Don. While still rather small, the horses of the Old Don breed were much better used for the cavalry service than the plough horses of the Russian peasants.

Taxes

They are mentioned just to have a list of the problems more or less complete. Not to get into the details, they were heavy and Russian financial situation was not too good. [11]






[1] If Russia had to be westernized, the obvious items to start with would be smoking, wearing the wigs and having European-style uniforms fir the army regardless the questionable benefits of all three of these items. The soldiers could suffer, well, the military service was not supposed to be a picnic, but nobody would say that the army looks “barbaric”.
[2] Taking into an account that the new uniforms had been needed in the relatively small parties, regular purchases of the small amounts of cloth abroad was not such a big deal but here you have to dress the whole army.
[3] 1 arshin = 27.9” = 70.9 cm
[4] I’m tempted to make uneducated guess involving word “bribe”
[5] Unfriendly ASBs, Perfidious Albion, Sneaky Prussia or see above [4]
[6] And the sheep finally understood seriousness of the situation (well, these creatures tend to be slow upon uptake but when they figure out something only a solid stone wall can stop them).
[7] Not sure where the quoted author found the field battles during the Azov campaigns which does not mean that he was wrong. 😂
[8] Due to the generally low level of a literacy the Russian horses of that time could not read the orders issued by Peter and his Senate and asca result can’t be blamed for not taking the breeding task with all required seriousness. 😪
[9] From the report of the Military Collegium.
[10] In OTL the problem persisted all the way through the 7YW when Russian dragoons on their small horses had been a butt of the Prussian jokes (well, for a while 😜 ).
[11] But considerably better than in OTL.
 
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I think it is wool, fleece is the skin AND wool of the sheep.

When it came to horses, Sweden quite successfully used clippers/kleppers bred from peasant horses and trained for war - and while the German curassiers and Polish hussars laughed at the small size of the horse, they proved easy to train to charge home and get used to the sights, sounds and smells of the battlefield, and they also had great stamina and seemed much hardier, surviving disease and times with low or no fodder much better than their larger European heavy cavalry brethren.

But of course, having heavy cavalry on large horses is a prestige thing, and Peter would want them.
 
I think it is wool, fleece is the skin AND wool of the sheep.

Oops. Fixed. Thanks.
When it came to horses, Sweden quite successfully used clippers/kleppers bred from peasant horses and trained for war - and while the German curassiers and Polish hussars laughed at the small size of the horse, they proved easy to train to charge home and get used to the sights, sounds and smells of the battlefield, and they also had great stamina and seemed much hardier, surviving disease and times with low or no fodder much better than their larger European heavy cavalry brethren.

But of course, having heavy cavalry on large horses is a prestige thing, and Peter would want them.
Russian domestic breed seemingly had characteristics similar to those you described for the Swedish horses. But an average peasant horse not always was in a condition good enough to fit the requirements. Then, again, it is quite possible that in OTL a protracted war had been a serious factor causing shortages: big numbers of horses had been requisitioned year by year for more than two decades. So in this TL situation is not good but not as bad as in OTL. It is probably worth noticing that in the old system Tsardom was raising up to 70,000 cavalry without noticeable problems: quite possible that when you are responsible for getting your own horse the problems are different from those when the state takes charge of this issue. 😜 But even changed Peter is the same “centralization freak” as he was in OTL and it is also possible that the requirements for the horse selection had been at least somewhat adjusted to the “Western” standards.

As for the cuirassiers, prestige was one consideration but the Austrian and Polish experience of the recent war with the Ottomans demonstrated that the heavy cavalry is quite effective against the Ottomans. Then, keep in mind that at the “start time” (1700) Russian dragoons are pretty much shooting cavalry/mounted infantry and as such is not very effective against the Turkish and Tatar cavalry: it is not even permitted to attack in gallop. It would take years of experience for them to switch to the sword as a primary weapon. The Cossacks are better used to the hand to hand combat but they are not reliable in the terms of a discipline and, getting back to the source of many problems, Peter wants to be “Western” even at the expense of a practicality.

Of course, it was possible to make a wider usage of the Old Don breed of the horses: they were smaller ( 146 - 155 cm) than the modern breed (160-165 cm) and did not look nice but had been very good in all other aspects. Unfortunately for this TL, the modern Don breed was not yet available: it was created by addition of Orlov Trotter (obviously, not there yet 😉), Arabian, Thoroughbred, and Karabakh blood but the Old breed was good enough to make it all the way to Paris in 1814. Can’t tell why they were seemingly neglected in Peter’s time. OK, I will made an addition to the post fixing Peter’s mistake. 😂
 
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Except this will result in Sweden being in a weaker position elsewhere. Sweden need to troops a lot of places, it was why Charles attempt to do this in OTL failed.
At worst, after a decisive victory or three against Poland/Saxony to safeguard Riga/Livonia the troops used in that Theater can be redeployed to Swedish Pomerania. Much easier to knock out Denmark than the PLC. Particularly if the PLC isnt getting Russian help.
 
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Oops. Fixed. Thanks.

Russian domestic breed seemingly had characteristics similar to those you described for the Swedish horses. But an average peasant horse not always was in a condition good enough to fit the requirements. Then, again, it is quite possible that in OTL a protracted war had been a serious factor causing shortages: big numbers of horses had been requisitioned year by year for more than two decades. So in this TL situation is not good but not as bad as in OTL. It is probably worth noticing that in the old system Tsardom was raising up to 70,000 cavalry without noticeable problems: quite possible that when you are responsible for getting your own horse the problems are different from those when the state takes charge of this issue. 😜 But even changed Peter is the same “centralization freak” as he was in OTL and it is also possible that the requirements for the horse selection had been at least somewhat adjusted to the “Western” standards.

As for the cuirassiers, prestige was one consideration but the Austrian and Polish experience of the recent war with the Ottomans demonstrated that the heavy cavalry is quite effective against the Ottomans. Then, keep in mind that at the “start time” (1700) Russian dragoons are pretty much shooting cavalry/mounted infantry and as such is not very effective against the Turkish and Tatar cavalry: it is not even permitted to attack in gallop. It would take years of experience for them to switch to the sword as a primary weapon. The Cossacks are better used to the hand to hand combat but they are not reliable in the terms of a discipline and, getting back to the source of many problems, Peter wants to be “Western” even at the expense of a practicality.

Yeah, the Swedish cavalry was "light" only in the sense that they did not carry armour and that they rode small horses. They were equipped with buffcoats and cuirasses, but it seems like the cuirasses were pretty quickly discarded before 1702 as they only protected against pistol shots and the mooseleather buffcoat proved quite good at preventing damage from rapiers and sabers. Desipte this "lightness" Swedish cavalry was trained and used as heavy cavalry - to charge with rapiers in a tight plow-like formation. Interestingly, Sweden had two dragoon regiments that were never used as infantry - the only difference between them and the other cavalry was that they carried muskets instead of carbines. There were dragoon units without horses, that were used as light infantry. So two types of dragoons, and neither were used as dragooons.

If Peter wants to throw a glance at Sweden, which should be possible with good Swedo-Russian relations, the Swedish cavalry regiments had a remount farm organisation, where peasants in the regimental area were paid to keep brood studs and mares and their foals until they were old enough to be trained by the army to become war horses. Cavalry officers, that lived on farmsteads in the same area inspected all horses and offered to make them breeding animals if they were suitable - this was usually a very good deal for the peasant, as he could still use the horse for labour, but got paid for keeping it. He just had to cover the cost for the fodder of the foals until they were grown enough to be trained by the army. This gave the peasants an incentive to keep their horses strong and healthy and breed them to be both suitable for work and war.

Sweden also had a couple of state-run remount farms to breed larger war horses for the officers, but they never produced enough horses for all officers. Some officers bought their own, but most seem to have ridden clippers just as their men did.

At Kliszow, the Swedish right wing cavalry was driven back by the Polish Hussars, but the Hussars bounced on the Swedish infantry, and the Swedish cavalry reformed and charged the Hussars and drove them from the field. If theres a similar battle (perhaps earlier, as Karl has no need to go to Narva after dealing with Denmark and thus can cross the Düna earlier) and Peter's observers or volunteers are there, they might take notice that light cavalry can act as heavy cavalry with the right training.
 
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