Disaster Averted (Titanic Lives)

[JamesHunter]

I was trying to suggest that if the eastern war ends in 1916 with a deal, then the Oct revolution probably does not occur. You might still get a Feb due the economic fallout, but it’s if they have made a separate deal the Germans are not releasing Lenin as they need a stable Russia on their backs to try and deal with the West. Russia then stabilises under the Provisional Govt.

With a population relentless about the war, collapsed economy, failed military offensives, and Germany offering to give up seized lands I could see the Tsar taking a deal in mid/late 1916 just to get if over with.

There might not be a separate deal with Austria or Ottomans, which might be the easier places for Russia to gain, esp vs the Ottomans.

Some form of Feb is almost inevitable. Nicky broke the "deal" he made with the political classes well before the war even started and now the people have suffered through a second lost war as well (it's going to be hard to spin having German troops on Russian soil for years).

That said if the war ends earlier Germany won't send Lenin and co home which will make it much harder for the Bolsheviks to act. That might give any provisional government enough time to stabilise and reform along at least vaguely democratic lines.

 

[PrinceHenry_of_Rheinsberg]

Were this ASB and not Alternate History Discussion: After 1900 a convenient Iceberg may have shown up for the U-Boat to strike.
Maybe next time.

Maybe? I don't know how to look at this...