Alternate Electoral Maps II
- Thread starter Aaaaasima
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Is it from an earlier time period? There's some states like Georgia and Arizona that make that less likely but the East Coast seems to have more EVs than OTL.
I thought it might relate to the African-American population in that state but then Nebraska probably shouldn't have 5 EVs. Seems to work for most states though (with states with the smallest populations having no representation).
Liberal: 97 seats
Conservative: 97 seats
NDP: 82 seats
Green: 38 seats
Bloc Quebecois: 24 seats
No, not an actual election, but a thought experiment. I got to wondering about the vote efficiency/distribution of the major parties in each province, so I calculated what the seat totals would be if all major parties were tied in every province (or region in the case of the north, Manitoba/Saskatchewan, and the Atlantic). So in BC for instance, I calculated what it would look like if the Liberals, Conservatives, NDP, and Greens were all at 25%. In Quebec I put all parties at 20% to account for the Bloc.
Anyway, pretty interesting I think. I didn't expect the Liberals and Conservatives to tie, but moreover it's somewhat amazing how inefficient the Green vote is. In Quebec for instance, despite tying with every other party, they only get 3 out of the 78 seats.
The US Election without the 1965 Immigration Act:
I used Census Data from 1970 and a study by pew research to estimate the Demographics of America without the 1965 Immigration Act (I decided to include the Indochinese and Cuban refugee) resettlement. I then applied the same estimated support by racial group to the estimated composition of the states without 1965 Immigration Act.
Trump wins 326 Electoral Votes and 48.1% of the Popular Vote. Clinton wins 212 Electoral Votes and 45.8% of the Popular Vote. Third Party support skews Whiter, so that's why the difference between them changed.
Texas saw the most drastic change, with Trump's margin being improved 11.6%
I used Census Data from 1970 and a study by pew research to estimate the Demographics of America without the 1965 Immigration Act (I decided to include the Indochinese and Cuban refugee) resettlement. I then applied the same estimated support by racial group to the estimated composition of the states without 1965 Immigration Act.
Trump wins 326 Electoral Votes and 48.1% of the Popular Vote. Clinton wins 212 Electoral Votes and 45.8% of the Popular Vote. Third Party support skews Whiter, so that's why the difference between them changed.
Texas saw the most drastic change, with Trump's margin being improved 11.6%
Rhad
Banned
White America Electoral College
I'll do non hispanic whites next. If I could find recent Indian data, I'd do that too. I have data for Hispanics and Asians, the problem is that my calculator won't allocate past 60 districts, and California deserves more than a hundred in both cases (It contains 27.8% of the Hispanic population, and 32.1% of the Asian population.) Texas also goes over the line in Hispanic population. In Asian population, California is the outlier, with 3 times as many people as the next state, and more people than the next six states put together.
For this map, Maine should have 5 and Nevada 5, but they were so close (less than a thousand people either way) that I switched it so I wouldn't have to mess with the code.
For this map, Maine should have 5 and Nevada 5, but they were so close (less than a thousand people either way) that I switched it so I wouldn't have to mess with the code.
How 538 predicted the election would go:
Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton(D-NY)/Senator Tim Kaine(D-VA)- 66,284,580 popular votes, 48.5%, 323 EVs
Businessman Donald Trump(R-NY)/Governor Mike Pence(R-IN)- 61,501,156 popular votes, 45.0%, 215 EVs
Former Governor Gary Johnson(L-NM)/Former Governor Bill Weld(L-MA)- 6,833,462 popular votes, 5.0%, 0 EVs
Other Candidates- 2,186,708 popular votes, 1.6%, 0 EVs
Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton(D-NY)/Senator Tim Kaine(D-VA)- 66,284,580 popular votes, 48.5%, 323 EVs
Businessman Donald Trump(R-NY)/Governor Mike Pence(R-IN)- 61,501,156 popular votes, 45.0%, 215 EVs
Former Governor Gary Johnson(L-NM)/Former Governor Bill Weld(L-MA)- 6,833,462 popular votes, 5.0%, 0 EVs
Other Candidates- 2,186,708 popular votes, 1.6%, 0 EVs
My apologies if I got the faithless electors and which states allow them wrong, this was a quick exercise for me to pass some time.
United States Presidential Election, 2012
(Republican)-Mr. Donald J. Trump,NY/Gov. Samuel "Sam" D. Brownback,KS: 269 EV, 45.89%
(Democratic)-Pres. Hillary R. Clinton,NY/VP. Thomas "Tom" J. Vilsack,IA: 250 EV, 47.9%
(Americans Elect)-Fmr Gov. Charles E. "Buddy" Roemer III,LA/Fmr Mayor Ross "Rocky" C. Anderson,UT: 11 EV, 4.3%
(MO & ID Faithless Electors)-Fmr Gov. W. Mitt Romney,MA/Gov. Samuel "Sam" D. Brownback,KS: 2 EV
(TX Faithless Elector)-Rep. Ronald "Ron" E. Paul,TX/Sen. Randal "Rand" H. Paul,KY: 1 EV
(VT Faithless Elector)-Fmr Rep. Alan M. Grayson,FL/Fmr Mayor Ross "Rocky" C. Anderson,UT: 1 EV
United States Presidential Election, 2012
(Republican)-Mr. Donald J. Trump,NY/Gov. Samuel "Sam" D. Brownback,KS: 269 EV, 45.89%
(Democratic)-Pres. Hillary R. Clinton,NY/VP. Thomas "Tom" J. Vilsack,IA: 250 EV, 47.9%
(Americans Elect)-Fmr Gov. Charles E. "Buddy" Roemer III,LA/Fmr Mayor Ross "Rocky" C. Anderson,UT: 11 EV, 4.3%
(MO & ID Faithless Electors)-Fmr Gov. W. Mitt Romney,MA/Gov. Samuel "Sam" D. Brownback,KS: 2 EV
(TX Faithless Elector)-Rep. Ronald "Ron" E. Paul,TX/Sen. Randal "Rand" H. Paul,KY: 1 EV
(VT Faithless Elector)-Fmr Rep. Alan M. Grayson,FL/Fmr Mayor Ross "Rocky" C. Anderson,UT: 1 EV
If the 2020 election was held today, this would likely be the result based on Trump's approval now. this assumes the Democratic nominee is at least even in terms of favrouable/unfavourable ratings though. Georgia is the closest state, followed by Iowa, Ohio, and Texas.
Generic Democrat/Generic Democrat 53% Popular Vote ~ 375 Electoral Votes
Donald J. Trump/Mike Pence 44% Popular Vote ~ 163 Electoral Votes
Libertarian/Green/Constitution/Others 3% Popular Vote ~ 0 Electoral Votes
I Don't really believe in uniform swings, I don't think there has ever been an election (except for maybe 1972) where every single state trended in the direction of the winner. I think Montana and Kansas would flip before Utah, even with McMullin.
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