A better Ottoman Navy for WW1

[mack8]

The POD for this is a few years before 1900 as it makes more sense. The major change from OTL is finding the Kikuk oil (then under ottoman rule). Lets say that following the disastruous russo-turkish war and even more disastruous economic and debt situation, sultan Hamid is a bit more proactive in finding a way out of that mess. That means finding and exploiting as many resources as possible. According to a thesis i read there were literally byzantine machinations around the issue of oil and concessions. Apparently everyone was suspecting rich oil wealth in Mesopotamia (ground seepages were known and exploited for centuries).

So lets suppose that commercial oil is found in Kirkuk in the 1890s or so, and exploitation starts from 1900 or so. Lets assume production grew to several million tons by WW1, mirroring somewhat the growth of the iranian oil found a bit later.

So basically there is a lot more money coming in, both from the oil , as well as concessions etc. Hamid then perhaps does not lets his navy to rot in the 1880s and 1890s, instead at least there is a modicum of maintenance and training still done, and a slow growth, as ships ordered get to be finished rather than scrapped, and more gets ordered abroad and from turkish shipyards.

The very start of this is that 2 Adul Kadir 8000 tons battleships, 2 Hudavendigar cruisers 4000 tons, and 2 small 1200 tons cruisers are finished around 1900 or so, even if probably they are not on par with other similar ships abroad, but it's a start. After this lets try to chart a reasonable growth path up to WW1 so the Ottoman Navy is a lot more powerful (dwarfing Greece's, since the ottomans have oil money now) and getting closer in strength to the like of Austro-Hungary or Russia. Having 2-3 dreadnoughts in service by 1914 is of course a must.

PS: To make things more interesting the better Ottoman Navy exists in the same universe as the better High Seas Fleet and better Austro-Hungarian Navy.

 

[Germaniac]

The problem with oil extraction in the middle east is that the companies who had the rights (first it was deutche Bank, which then transferred to Turkish Petroleum, which became the Iraqi Petroleum Company) had little incentive to build the infrastructure and extract the oil due to the extremely low price and wide availability of Oil.

A good example of the situation at the time would be the Mexican Oil Industry which established itself at the same time. By 1911 they had reached the point where they were a net exporter of oil and one of the largest producers in the world (usually the second or third largest in the world) yet the government received very little in the way of royalties, based off profit not extraction, this led to a situation where the companies which owned and operated the industry where inclined to increase production through infrastructure developments and purchasing new property and driving up operating costs and limiting the royalty payments. This would eventually lead to the nationalization of the industry, but thats a different story.

In the deal negotiated with Turkish Petroleum the opposite situation happened. Royalties were based off of barrels extracted, so the company had no incentive to actually develop the resource since the second oil started being extracted they would need to begin paying.

If you want the oil industry to quickly improve the empire, instead of a long term solution decades down the line, you need the Ottomans themselves to control the resource, a petroleum company owned and operated by the ottomans... but you'll need substantial changes to the Abdul Hamid regime to make that happen.

If we are strictly talking about the best Ottoman Navy heading into ww1 is an Ottoman Navy that stays in port. There is no chance the Ottomans can defeat either the Russian or Italian Navy without a near equal number of dreadnoughts, which unfortunately for the Ottomans, that can realistically only be provided by the UK due to capacity.

 

[mack8]

The problem with oil extraction in the middle east is that the companies who had the rights (first it was deutche Bank, which then transferred to Turkish Petroleum, which became the Iraqi Petroleum Company) had little incentive to build the infrastructure and extract the oil due to the extremely low price and wide availability of Oil.

A good example of the situation at the time would be the Mexican Oil Industry which established itself at the same time. By 1911 they had reached the point where they were a net exporter of oil and one of the largest producers in the world (usually the second or third largest in the world) yet the government received very little in the way of royalties, based off profit not extraction, this led to a situation where the companies which owned and operated the industry where inclined to increase production through infrastructure developments and purchasing new property and driving up operating costs and limiting the royalty payments. This would eventually lead to the nationalization of the industry, but thats a different story.

In the deal negotiated with Turkish Petroleum the opposite situation happened. Royalties were based off of barrels extracted, so the company had no incentive to actually develop the resource since the second oil started being extracted they would need to begin paying.

If you want the oil industry to quickly improve the empire, instead of a long term solution decades down the line, you need the Ottomans themselves to control the resource, a petroleum company owned and operated by the ottomans... but you'll need substantial changes to the Abdul Hamid regime to make that happen.

If we are strictly talking about the best Ottoman Navy heading into ww1 is an Ottoman Navy that stays in port. There is no chance the Ottomans can defeat either the Russian or Italian Navy without a near equal number of dreadnoughts, which unfortunately for the Ottomans, that can realistically only be provided by the UK due to capacity.

I found a thesis online that seems to suggest as part of the byzantine machinations mentioned earlier Hamid was aiming to control the lands most promising for oil exploitation, and play off the various western powers against eachother regarding oil concessions. It's not quite clear why oil hasn't been struck in the promising areas (i didn't have the patience to read throughly all 150 pages or so today), maybe a technological problem, or luck problem or maybe as you suggest commercial interests etc.

So it seems Hamid was aiming to keep control over oil exploitation, for this TL we just have to give him striking an actual commercial gusher in the region, which should attract more interest, drilling, concessions etc. and perhaps given the apparent aim of control, Hamid might act as you suggest and have an ottoman oil company controlling the exploitation. Given their interest in the region, you'd think the germans would be very interested in getting some of this ottoman oil. And the british who were actively looking for oil in the region at this time would be very interested too. Of course there is the potential for all kinds of machinations like the british attacking or otherwise coercing the ottomans just to get control of the oilfields but for the purpose of this naval TL i'll leave that scenario aside.

 

[Germaniac]

I found a thesis online that seems to suggest as part of the byzantine machinations mentioned earlier Hamid was aiming to control the lands most promising for oil exploitation, and play off the various western powers against eachother regarding oil concessions. It's not quite clear why oil hasn't been struck in the promising areas (i didn't have the patience to read throughly all 150 pages or so today), maybe a technological problem, or luck problem or maybe as you suggest commercial interests etc.

For the most part this is correct. Everyone knew the oil potential in the region, or at least strongly suspected. Abdul Hamid used this as a bargaining chip to balance priorities he had, mostly resolving foreign damage claims related to the 1897 repression of Armenian populations in Constantinople and Cilicia. This is actually also related to the purchase of new naval ships and contracts to refurbish older ships (writing into the contracts to force the companies to resolve the foreign claims as well).

What they did not anticipate was the value of Oil increasing though the 40's. Even into the late 30's oil was cheap and plentiful so its only with 20/20 vision that we can say the Ottomans slow moves towards Oil extraction was wrong.

So it seems Hamid was aiming to keep control over oil exploitation, for this TL we just have to give him striking an actual commercial gusher in the region, which should attract more interest, drilling, concessions etc. and perhaps given the apparent aim of control, Hamid might act as you suggest and have an ottoman oil company controlling the exploitation. Given their interest in the region, you'd think the germans would be very interested in getting some of this ottoman oil. And the british who were actively looking for oil in the region at this time would be very interested too. Of course there is the potential for all kinds of machinations like the british attacking or otherwise coercing the ottomans just to get control of the oilfields but for the purpose of this naval TL i'll leave that scenario aside.

We still have the problem that Oil just wasn't that economically potent as it is today. I can't find the numbers, but a few years ago I did a breakdown modeling a 1911 fully formed Ottoman oil industry based on Mexico's and it basically showed that even at Max productions and no price fluctuation (which the influx of Ottoman oil would effect) Ottoman government revenues would only expand modestly and wouldn't even cover the deficit the Ottoman government was operating with at that time.

That's not to say that the Ottoman's couldn't have an effective Navy even without this extra revenue. It really comes down to the Ottoman government, and abdul Hamid specifically, to change their priorities. Abdul Hamid was always cautious of the Navy, the Navy was involved with the dethronement of Sultan Abdulaziz and he doubted their loyalty. During the 1890's the Ottomans spent significantly on the Navy, but once the ship was received it was left to languish. Training, ammunition, and even pay were all neglected.

There was even a story in German papers of a rogue Ottoman crew sent to Germany to take possession of a ship arriving without ever having operated a vessel, they had no funds to purchase food or lodging (forget about buying coal for the ship), and didn't even have uniforms. They spent their time as a roaming gang of ruffians and eventually Krupp was persuaded to pay out a stipend to these sailors before the Ottomans would sign off on a new artillery order. To call this byzantine is an insult to byzantine politics. (Edit: Just a note the ship was the Asar-i Tevfik)

 

[naraic]

I think you want to speed up petrol or diesel train to speed up oil extraction in the ottomans.

A lot of the great oil areas didn't have great coal and their links to the rest of the empire was poor. If the Istanbull to Berlin portion of the Berlin to Baghdad train line was to run on petrol or diesel extracted in Iraq and refined locally then oil would be more attractive for current use within the Ottoman empire, rather than for theoretical future use sole to western powers.

 

[mack8]

On a more technical note, i found this fascinating overview of the ottoman dreadnought and naval build-up saga.

All the World's Battlecruisers-The Ottoman Navy's achievable 45 ship program

I've been researching the Ottoman-Greek Naval race and now the internet is determined to sell me a darkblue-poof. I thought I share some insights. The

www.tapatalk.com

 

[mack8]

A quick point re the oil and revenue, i would think regardless of how much money is made from oil export, the ottoman energy situation is transformed. They have oil to use for all kinds of industrial and domestic purposes.
A very rough calculation seems to show the ottoman GDP was a bit under 1 billion 1913 (i think) dollars. The price of oil i found somewhere as 12 dollars/ton, so supposing they export couple million tons a year at peak, that's around 25 millions give or take. It's more complicated since presumably not all that money is profit, on the other hand this extra income happens in this TL for at least a decade.
Also, not sure if correct but a battleship or similar was about 10 million in those days?

 

[Dorknought]

Just buy the Averoff when you had first option. No Balkan wars no WW1.

 

[Lascaris]

Just buy the Averoff when you had first option. No Balkan wars no WW1.

The Greeks have the cash Averoff will be something else.

 

[Germaniac]

In my opinion there is only one ship that’s reasonably available and would be a game changer for the Ottomans, the Blucher.

The ship is practically pointless for the Germans, and is arguably more than a match for the Averof. Had they really pushed the Germans I believe they would have sold it in a package deals (maybe a few destroyers) for the cost of a Von der Tann (to allow for the purchase the naval bill dictated that Germany replace the ship).

 

[Germaniac]

A quick point re the oil and revenue, i would think regardless of how much money is made from oil export, the ottoman energy situation is transformed. They have oil to use for all kinds of industrial and domestic purposes.
A very rough calculation seems to show the ottoman GDP was a bit under 1 billion 1913 (i think) dollars. The price of oil i found somewhere as 12 dollars/ton, so supposing they export couple million tons a year at peak, that's around 25 millions give or take. It's more complicated since presumably not all that money is profit, on the other hand this extra income happens in this TL for at least a decade.
Also, not sure if correct but a battleship or similar was about 10 million in those days?

That’s going to be Anglo-Persian Oil’s income, not what the Ottomans will receive.

But even then, the Ottomans are still a great power, and contrary to popular understanding the Ottomans had excellent credit. The financial reforms since 1881 had been comprehensive, and if the Ottoman Government really wanted battleships it would just take out a loan to buy a battleship and did that very thing several times.

The problem with battleships is that you have to find a way for them to reform their navy, but do it after 1906 since any battleships purchased before the Dreadnought are just wasted. So they need to start building a foundation of destroyers and cruisers during the 1890s and establish a naval culture. They can expand to a few protected cruisers and maybe an armored cruiser in the early oughts, and then once the Dreadnought is released they can get one or two and then build more as time goes on while also ensuring they are building out the smaller vessels as well.

Basically follow how Greece did it between 1890-1912 and pay a real foundation. Otherwise the Ottomans will just be left in the same situation Turkey was in during the 20s… it’ll just have some trophy ships they can’t really do anything with.

 

[mack8]

That’s going to be Anglo-Persian Oil’s income, not what the Ottomans will receive.

But even then, the Ottomans are still a great power, and contrary to popular understanding the Ottomans had excellent credit. The financial reforms since 1881 had been comprehensive, and if the Ottoman Government really wanted battleships it would just take out a loan to buy a battleship and did that very thing several times.

The problem with battleships is that you have to find a way for them to reform their navy, but do it after 1906 since any battleships purchased before the Dreadnought are just wasted. So they need to start building a foundation of destroyers and cruisers during the 1890s and establish a naval culture. They can expand to a few protected cruisers and maybe an armored cruiser in the early oughts, and then once the Dreadnought is released they can get one or two and then build more as time goes on while also ensuring they are building out the smaller vessels as well.

Basically follow how Greece did it between 1890-1912 and pay a real foundation. Otherwise the Ottomans will just be left in the same situation Turkey was in during the 20s… it’ll just have some trophy ships they can’t really do anything with.

They have the Istanbul shipyard where the Kadir and Hudavendigar were started, fairly large ships for the time, if it's modernized not only those ships can be finished, but they can build ships indigenously in the 1900s, maybe not as big as a dreadnoughts but pre-dreadnoughts and armoured cruisers possible, plus smaller craft. Iirc there was a desire in 1897 to build 2 x 10,000 tons BB, 2 x 6000 tons ACs, 2x 5000 tons PCs and 2x 2500 tons small cruisers, plus presumably smaller craft. In this TL we can have them actually built these in the 1900s, both domestically and abroad. Not quite sure which requirements were the Hamidiyes filling, either for PCs or smaller ones.

And considering the massive inferiority vs the tsarist BSF, even these ships outdated by the dreadnought revolution would have been helpful in the war.

Then we can have couple of dreanoughts built and actually delivered after 1910 (plus some extra cruisers and destroyers), so overall the war navy would have 2 dreadnoughts, 4 pre-dreadnoughts, 2 armoured cruisers, 6-7 other cruisers, plus perhaps two dozen various destroyers, half-dozen or more subs, numbers of torpedo craft etc. The old ironclads shouldn't have been modernized in the 1890s-1900s as it was a total waster, instead the focus being on building and modernizing the post 1890 ships.

As to Hamid, who knows, considering his disdain for the navy perhaps he could have been couped out as he feared and replaced with someone more navy friendly.

 

[Karelian]

As others have pointed out already, Abdülhamid was afraid of navy as a source of intrigue and potential coups. No amount of extra funding is going to cure his paranoia.
Now, beating Greece in a local Adriatic naval arms race is entirely doable with the Ottoman resources (assuming they avoid war long enough), as well as protecting the Ottoman key ports against a potential Italian close blockade with fixed fortifications, destroyers, naval mines and submarines.

 

[Germaniac]

They have the Istanbul shipyard where the Kadir and Hudavendigar were started, fairly large ships for the time, if it's modernized not only those ships can be finished, but they can build ships indigenously in the 1900s, maybe not as big as a dreadnoughts but pre-dreadnoughts and armoured cruisers possible, plus smaller craft. Iirc there was a desire in 1897 to build 2 x 10,000 tons BB, 2 x 6000 tons ACs, 2x 5000 tons PCs and 2x 2500 tons small cruisers, plus presumably smaller craft. In this TL we can have them actually built these in the 1900s, both domestically and abroad. Not quite sure which requirements were the Hamidiyes filling, either for PCs or smaller ones.

Yes, the Imperial Arsenal could theoretically build ships, but it would need serious modernization. The Abdul Kadir class in all honesty isn’t a bad design, incorporating a lot learned from British shipbuilders who came to survey the shipyards in the 1890’s, but construction was done on the cheap and at a crawl.

The naval plan in 1897 was laid out by a British naval commander who came to assist in modernization. In it the Abdul Kadir and its planned sister ship were included as the two battleships. The plan also called for Thames Shipyard company to lease the Naval Arsenal and fully modernize. They would build two battleships in England and two at the Arsenal once modernized… Abdul Hamid backed out of the deal and just the two battleships (eventually only one the Abdul Kadir) were ordered. This was mostly due to the absolute embarrassment the Navy had been in the war with Greece in 97’. The navy couldn’t even steam out of port.

The cruisers Hamidye and Mucidye were actually part of the agreements with British and American shipyards I mentioned in an earlier post to settle damage claims against the Ottoman Government. Abdul Hamid refused to directly compensate anyone so as to not accept culpability, but would get the shipyards to pay the damages in return for contracts.

 

[Spatharios]

The Ottomans’ problem IOTL was not lack of warships; ship for ship they had larger and more modern ships than the Greeks, Averoff excepted. The problem was a lack of meritocracy in the officer corps and of training in the crews. Without fixing that, even have dreadnoughts, they will lose or at least not be able to use them to their potential. And in the institutional environment of Abdulhamidian despotism, the necessary reforms are unlikely.

 

[Coulsdon Eagle]

In my opinion there is only one ship that’s reasonably available and would be a game changer for the Ottomans, the Blucher.

The ship is practically pointless for the Germans, and is arguably more than a match for the Averof. Had they really pushed the Germans I believe they would have sold it in a package deals (maybe a few destroyers) for the cost of a Von der Tann (to allow for the purchase the naval bill dictated that Germany replace the ship).

One of those rare occasions when the Kaiser was on the ball and everyone else was wrong!

The Ottomans’ problem IOTL was not lack of warships; ship for ship they had larger and more modern ships than the Greeks, Averoff excepted. The problem was a lack of meritocracy in the officer corps and of training in the crews. Without fixing that, even have dreadnoughts, they will lose or at least not be able to use them to their potential. And in the institutional environment of Abdulhamidian despotism, the necessary reforms are unlikely.

Also query whether the Ottoman Empire had the industrial base to produce ammunition and possibly spare parts, as they may not have a safe logistical route to the original selling country.

 

[jlckansas]

If the Germans sell the Blucher to the Ottomans in this case, could you see them wanting to have the ship converted to oil from coal since it would be available? With the Ottomans having a steady source of supply could this be a way for the Germans to export some ships that are oiled fired?

 

[mack8]

In my opinion there is only one ship that’s reasonably available and would be a game changer for the Ottomans, the Blucher.

The ship is practically pointless for the Germans, and is arguably more than a match for the Averof. Had they really pushed the Germans I believe they would have sold it in a package deals (maybe a few destroyers) for the cost of a Von der Tann (to allow for the purchase the naval bill dictated that Germany replace the ship).

That is certainly an interesting possibility. If the germans build a replacement in time for WW1 then everybody wins, the germans get a formidable battlecruiser (perhaps a Motlke or even Derfflinger) instead of Blucher while the ottomans get what is for them a modern, powerful, fast armoured cruiser. Even a cheaper slightly updated Von der Tann would still be a great fighting power advance over the Blucher for the germans.

 

[mack8]

If the Germans sell the Blucher to the Ottomans in this case, could you see them wanting to have the ship converted to oil from coal since it would be available? With the Ottomans having a steady source of supply could this be a way for the Germans to export some ships that are oiled fired?

That is an interesting possibility too, either partial or even full oil fired Blucher should make more power, so more speed, right? And for the germans same apply if they get to import significant oil quantities from the ottomans, partial or even full oil firing conversion for more of their capital ships is possible. Perhaps they might have that extra 1-2 knots at Jutland etc.

 

[Germaniac]

Conversion to Oil would occur later, maybe in the 30's. Its unlikely the Ottomans would scrap a ship like the Blucher, even if it was outdated even when purchased. So, like the Averoff in OTL, it will likely have a rebuild and will be converted to Oil at that point.

Regarding the Germans, the ship would have been sold in 1909 (same time as the two joke battleships the Ottomans bought in OTL), so its likely a third Moltke class Battlecruiser would be laid down.